Belmont 2022!

 Why is it that the week of the Belmont Stakes is one of my craziest weeks of the year? My swan song coaching rugby started, I am prepping for my first presentation at a conference, and everyone at work wants a pound of flesh!

So we'll keep it short and sweet.

I am torn 50/50 on top but will give the edge to the Uncle Mo colt...

6 Mo Donegal 5-2

5 Creative Minister 6-1

1 We The People 2-1

4 Rich Strike 7-2

The pace? I see this going down one of two ways. Either weak early speed from We The People, most likely pressured by Nest and Mo Donegal and Creative Minister pick up the pieces -or- We The People takes it wire to wire.

Like I say every year, maybe next year I'll be able to really dive into this one!

Preakness 2022

 No Triple Crown this year. Rethink the Triple Crown. The races are too long.

This porridge is too cold, this porridge is too hot... 

Give someone a reason and they'll complain about anything. Rich Strike had the race of a lifetime for connections you have never heard of (and may never hear from again).  I trust the horsemen to do what is right for their horse. I also don't think we need to rethink the Triple Crown. 

More rest, shorter distances? 

Why?

It is HARD to win the Triple Crown, as it should be. That is what makes it special and rare.

Enough of you hearing me roll my eyes from NJ every time someone decides that the Triple Crown needs to change...

On to the matter at hand. Preakness 2022.

I ran the pace a couple of ways and ended up with two possible outcomes (other than chaos - a.k.a. something goes amuck that throws off the race entirely). An off the pace horse should win with a 65% likelihood and a front running winner is a 25% likelihood.

Quick and dirty of how I see it setting up. Fenwick, Early Voting, and Armagnac set the pace. I figure an opening half mile in about 47.0s (plus or minus a tick). The second call should be in about 1:11.2s but by then the off the pace horses will make their move. The strongest of the group is Epicenter who should get a good trip being outside of the speed and the habitually slow breaking Happy Jack (now with blinkers)!

I see the chance that Secret Oath takes a step forward and has a shot at a late run here as well.

In my secondary pace scenario, Early Voting is the most likely front runner to get loose on the lead and set a more comfortable pace (47.2s / 1:12.0s). In that scenario he could take this field wire to wire. This would require the other two front runners to fail to challenge. While possible, not the most probable outcome.

As always, I reserve a 10% likelihood for the unexpected. It could be a troubled trip or a stalker that goes out and sets the pace with blazing fractions.

My top contenders (I feel the top three have the best chance at the winner's circle):

8 Epicenter 6-5

5 Early Voting 7-2

4 Secret Oath 9-2

9 Skippylongstocking 20-1

There is clearly a divide in class in this field, but I think Skippylongstocking is the best of the rest and an find his way onto exotic tickets.

As for betting, this race hits none of my metrics so I will be looking for a six pack of Natty Boh (National Bohemian Beer) to drink instead of a Black Eyed Susan. 

Good luck!

That Snuck Up On Me... Thoughts on the 2022 Kentucky Derby

 I am like a broken record each year (except 2020) at this time. Where did the year go?

Admittedly I have taken one day off so far this year and finally hired some relief at work after countless 80+ hour weeks. Couple the workload with the demise of USRacing, where I spent the last six years writing for fun, and I have been off the Derby Trail again this year.

I don't always get excited about the Kentucky Derby though. In 2017 Always Dreaming ended my slump dating back to my last winning Derby horse in 2004, the great Smarty Jones.

Why don't I get excited? 

You can count on half the field encountering some sort of trouble in the race. A bump, a clipped heel, or being pinched back at the start are all common occurrences. It isn't easy for a closer to navigate through 15 or more horses late after likely going six wide in the turn.

Tradition keeps me looking at (and only watching) this race. I remember the yearly calls to my 90+ year old grandmother who anxiously awaited my call and would mail me clippings from her local newspaper so I "would have the best information".

So here we are in 2022. Drama. Bob Baffert proteges. Preps that left more questions than answers.

12 Taiba (12-1) - this son of Gun Runner bested an up and down Messier last out against a hot pace. Keeping Smith in the irons for Baffert, errr Yakteen doesn't hurt his chances either. The race figures to have some weak early speed and this colt, if he can get a good trip, will find himself in a place to make a late move without a lot of traffic to contend with.

1 Mo Donegal (10-1) - the best of the three Pletcher entrants is out of Uncle Mo who sired 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. We know he can get the distance but his success will be dependent on getting a good start, which is something that plagued him in his first four tries. The Wood Memorial is not a premier prep race and for this colt to have a shot he will need to stay a little closer to the pace than normal.

3 Epicenter (7-2) - is a well deserving second favorite. His last effort in the Louisiana Derby showed he could rate off the pace besting a few of the lesser horses in this field. He will need to rate off the pace and resist the urge to get out to the front. While he has had success on the front end, this field looks to set up more for an off the pace horse with the weak early speed we can expect to see here.

10 Zandon (3-1) - I really want to like this horse more. I made some money off of him in the Bluegrass, but wasn't thrilled with that field. The Bluegrass is a notoriously weak prep and he couldn't get it done against better stock in the Risen Star and Remsen. Figuring he is good for a minor share though.

The probable pace here points to weak early speed and the winner coming from off the pace. I am not looking at a closer, but if Mo Donegal and Zandon can get a perfect trip they will have a shot to upset the apple cart. I am looking to beat the favorite as Taiba ran a huge race and should step forward here. 

Sit back and enjoy this race, my focus is already two weeks out at Pimlico for the Preakness!

Back to Normal - Belmont Stakes 2021

 As we hit the first Saturday in June and are all crawling back out from under the rocks we were under, it is time to think about the final leg of the Triple Crown (which was the first leg in 2020, the year we'd all like to forget).

Can Rombauer continue to make history by being the only "new shooter" to win the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes?

Not likely. The full article about this can be found here.

Here are my thoughts on the 2021 Belmont Stakes.

#2 Essential Quality (2-1) - This son of Tapit is looking to follow in the footsteps of half-brothers Tonalist and Tapwrit who won the 2011 and 2014 Belmont Stakes. He can get the distance with this breeding and will make a huge step forward off of a troubled trip in both the Kentucky Derby and the Blue Grass (which he won) after romping home in the slop three back in the Southwest. He should get a fair, contested pace here which sets up for a big run late.

#6 Known Agenda (6-1) - Son of the great Curlin and half-brother to 2010 winner Palace Malice. He is another off the pace type who will need a new rider as Irad Ortiz, Jr is out for a couple weeks after a spill earlier this week at Belmont. He is a serious contender in this race and should have a similar trip to what he had in the Florida Derby.

#4 Hot Rod Charlie (7-2) - He figures to be close to the early pace that is expected to be set by Rock Your World. His breeding may be what holds him back here as the long stretch on "Big Sandy" may be too much for him in the last two furlongs.

#3 Rombauer (3-1) - He ran a heck of a race in the Preakness against a contested pace that set up perfectly for him, but falls short today. The reason I liked him so much in the Preakness (hidden form) is the same reason I am going with Essential Quality on top of my tickets. 

#1 Bourbonic could be a factor late on the bottom of your tickets, as could the fading front runner #7 Rock Your World. I like #8 Overtook's breeding, but question his class in this spot despite the fact that the Peter Pan has been a good pipeline for horses making their first Triple Crown start and winning the Belmont Stakes. I expect little from #5 France Go de Ina.

Bottom line is that early speed doesn't fare well in the Belmont Stakes. All the horses should have a clean race without 20 starters breaking at the same time like the Kentucky Derby. 

Good luck!

Preakness 2021

 Short and sweet this time after a week of fighting a stomach bug:

6 Rombauer 12-1

4 Crowded Trade 10-1

10 Concert Tour 5-2

3 Mendina Spirit 9-5

Expect Mendina Spirit to set the pace with Concert Tour and possibly Midnight Bourbon. Early speed doesn't usually play well in the Preakness so expect a horse to come from off the pace. Rombauer moves forward off of a troubled trip in the Blue Grass and benefits from a quicker pressured pace. Crowded Trade is another horse that will benefit from a battle on the front end. 

The First Saturday in May (Again!)

 Things are getting better. People are getting jabbed with the marvels of modern medicine and we may even get to be within six feet of each other soon. As we return to a sense of normalcy, we can expect an exciting 147^th running of the Kentucky Derby once again on the first Saturday in May.

 So let’s get right to it:

 17 Highly Motivated 10-1

The curse of post 17 is over. Highly Motivated will benefit from the speed that breaks inside of him, allowing him to run the race he wants from off the pace instead of inheriting the lead like he did in the Blue Grass. This son of the Into Mischief, the leading North American sire over the last two years and sire of the 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, is bred to get the distance. Jockey Javiar Castellano finished third in the 2018 running of the Kentucky Derby aboard Highly Motivated's half-brother, Audible.

 14 Essential Quality 2-1

This two-year old champion is almost too good to be true. He is undefeated after five starts which include four graded stakes. I am a fan of Tapit colts and there is nothing here that points to a bad performance other than pressing Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass when he didn’t really want to set the pace. There have been 30 undefeated Kentucky Derby entrants, 17 of which have gone to post as the favorite. Of those 17, eight have won. Horses with five or more races before the Kentucky Derby have significantly outperformed horses with four or less starts.

 What keeps him from winning?

 Others look to improve more off of their last start. Otherwise he is a very deserving favorite.

 1 Known Agenda 6-1

The post hurts a bit being on the rail with the deluge of horses pushing in after the break. This son of Curlin has late kick and is the type of runner that, if they can navigate through traffic, finds his way into your exotics.

 6 O Besos 20-1

I like to scream out four letter words. The one I would yell at this colt is “WIDE.” He ran a much improved race in the Louisiana Derby despite being five wide into the first turn. If this son of Orb can repeat the run of his sire in the 2013 Kentucky Derby he should find his way into your exotics. He will benefit from the pace here and show improvement.

How does the pace set up?

Expect a charge to the lead early by Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World, Mendina Spirit, and Midnight Bourbon. Essential Quality and Highly Motivated will be best suited sitting just off of the leaders. I expect a half mile call of about 46-4/5ths and a half mile of about 1:11-4/5ths seconds. The wildcard is really who wants the lead the most and we could conceivably see 46 seconds flat.

The frontrunners will tire which benefits Essential Quality and Highly Motivated the most. There are a number of horses who have the late run to find your trifectas and superfectas here. Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic One, Helium, Mandaloun, and Known Agenda are the most likely. Don’t count out Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie hanging on for a minor share either.

Good luck and we’ll do this all again in two weeks for the Preakness!

 

The First Saturday in September!

2020 has been a year like no other, so can we expect a Kentucky Derby like no other? Normally on the first Saturday of September I am excited about Rutgers football, not the quest for the Triple Crown. But what can I say, it is 2020.

The question of whether the "Curse of Post 17" would be broken this year seems less like with the early defection of King Guillermo, which moves 3-5 favorite Tiz The Law into the 16 hole and front runner Authentic into the dreaded 17 spot.

Interestingly enough, the Kentucky Derby has been run two other times outside of May. In 1901, it was run on April 29 and due to World War II it was run on June 9th in 1945. With all that has happened this year, we should all be happy that the race is even being run at all.

 So let's get down to business. My top four choices:

#16 Honor A.P. (5-1) - The pace will be favorable to his running style and he is looks to be deceptively the best horse in this field. Looking at his last three starts tells the story. In the San Felipe no one challenged Authentic who coasted home wire to wire. The Kentucky Derby is not an easy race to win wire to wire, which plays to his running style. The Santa Anita Derby was a solid performance as Authentic was off a step slow and was not able to handle the hot pace. Last out in the Shared Belief he had trouble in the stretch and was able to rally to finish within 3/4's of a length. Expect a better effort here than he had in the Santa Anita Derby with a solid work pattern showing speed and depth.

#17 Tiz The Law (3-5) - I was all over this grandson of Tapit in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. He has proven he can get the distance and his running style is also a perfect fit for the anticipated pace here. While I always say three year olds can keep improving race to race, this one will regress a bit here, but it still may be enough to win against this field.

#7 Money Moves (30-1) - While he has only cleared the N1X hurdle, losing by a neck in a N2X race last out, he could take a big step forward here although he may get caught in a logjam at the start. He had some trouble in his last start over this course, which was his first try around two turns. He is my primary upset horse.

#2 Max Player (30-1) - Half brother to Honor A.P. has lost to Tiz The Law in two straight starts. His late fractions are deceptively good and he will be moving late. I don't expect to see him win, but he will be a factor late.

How does this one set up?

Authentic, Ny Traffic, Storm The Court, and Thousand Words look to be the group looking for the lead early. The half mile should go in under 47 seconds. The contested pace up front will set up perfectly for both Honor A.P. and Tiz The Law who will be close to the lead. Both have the legs to sustain a late run. Money Move could be right there with them and deserves at least a look.

The "Curse of Post 17" looks to continue until 2021, yet there appears to be the potential for some value in your exotics and if Honor A.P. can hold on against a formidable favorite in Tiz The Law.

So sit back and enjoy the long-awaited fastest two minutes in sports.

Two Turns to Glory - 2019 Belmont Stakes Analysis

A mile and a half. The distance I often make my son’s U12 travel soccer team run after practice. The distance it is to walk from my in-law's house, if you go the long way. The distance ten three year-olds will run in about two and a half minutes to see who captures the final Triple Crown race of 2019.

I tried to beat Justify last year. I failed. Two years ago, a nice Tapit colt made me some money as Tapwrit was first to the wire. Most, if not all, of these horses will never see this distance, or anything close to it, again. No wonder it is called the true ‘Test of a Champion’!

Rather than get into great detail on the pace of this race, you can see my pace analysis video exclusively at US Racing which should be posted by Friday evening.

So let’s get down to business!

Above you can see my figures and assessment for the field.

10 Tacitus (9-5) – My Kentucky Derby selection who ran into some trouble yet again on the first Saturday of May. William Mott won this race in 2010 with Drosselmeyer and Jose Ortiz won this race aboard another Tapit colt, Tapwrit, in 2017. This horse is bred to go long and I think the outside post may help as the early speed inside of him will allow him to settle into a good trip early.

9 War of Will (2-1) – It was a tough call between him and Tacitus. I feel it could very well be a toss up between these two with the only potential for value being the bottom of your exotics. Toss his Kentucky Derby performance and you are left with the odd blemish of the Louisiana Derby. Otherwise he has been a solid performer, but not lights out. His pedigree suggests that distance is not an issue, but you could argue the strength of the Preakness field last out. There is a possibility that he just gets loose early and doesn’t look back.

6 Spinoff (15-1) – My runner-up selection in the Kentucky Derby also has the pedigree to run all day by way of his sire Hard Spun. Since you can toss a sloppy, controversial Kentucky Derby where he started from the far outside, he still hasn’t run a two-turn race without any troubles. I think he could open some eyes in this race.

5 Bourbon War (12-1) – The second Tapit colt in my top four selections (Intrepid Heart is the third horse in this field out of Tapit), is most likely for a spot underneath. I think the pace is too fast for him in this spot and the others are a notch above him, but he is likely the best of the rest.

Potential for Value:  Medium-Low (could get chalky on the top of your tickets)

Confidence:  Moderate (My most probable pace scenario is at a 50% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Win – 10

Small Exacta – 9,10 with 6,9,10

Small Trifecta – 9,10 with 6,9,10 with 4,5,6,9,10

Small Superfecta – 9,10 with 6,9,10 with 4,5,6,9,10 with 4,5,6,9,10

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back and enjoy the race!

Hold All Tickets! - 2019 Preakness Analysis

The 2019 Kentucky Derby was certainly…. Interesting to say the least. One of my pace scenarios almost held up. Well, it held up for about 22 minutes until they took Maximum Security down. Disqualification aside, he proved to me that he didn’t need to set a soft fraction to take a race wire to wire like he did in the Florida Derby.

Like many horseplayers, I just move on to the next race.

My explanation of the probable pace will be posted on US Racing. Rather than regurgitate the probable pace scenarios here, please click and watch the graphics as I explain how the race will set up.

Here is how my Pace Based Speed Ratings (PBSR) stack up:

So let’s get down to business.

12 Anothertwistafate (6-1) – The son of Scat Daddy had a rough go in the Lexington last out and still managed to place to Owendale who had a dream trip. Two back in the Sunland Derby he faced a hot pace and was forced to rate for the first time. I think this colt is developing nicely after being the early pace horse in three tries at Golden Gate.  

4 Improbable (5-2) – Bob Baffert and Mike Smith are back at it with the Kentucky Derby favorite. Toss the Kentucky Derby and he has shown he can track off the pace well. He just needs to finish. With a couple of one dimensional front runners in this field, he may have enough to last late.

1 War of Will (4-1) – Toss that Kentucky Derby effort and we’ll give him a pass on the lackluster effort in the Louisiana Derby two back. He was making up ground and setting up for a move before running into trouble in the Kentucky Derby. I think he flies under the radar a bit off of those two efforts and adds some value here.

2 Bourbon War (12-1) – He couldn’t get anything going in the Florida Derby as Maximum Security ran his race. A pace like the Fountain of Youth two back gives him a better chance here. He is out of Tapit who has produced a lot of longer distances winners. If he runs well here, I like his chances in the Belmont Stakes as well.

8 Signalman (30-1) – The faster the early pace goes, the more I like him in this spot. I don’t think he’ll land the top spot, but he’ll be looming late in your exotics.

Potential for Value:  Medium-High

Confidence:  Medium (My most probable pace scenario has a 60% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Small Exacta 12 /  1, 2, 4, 8

Small Trifecta 12 / 1, 2, 4, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 8

Small Superfecta Box  1, 2, 4, 8, 12

WPS 12

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back and enjoy the race!

Back to the Drawing Board! – 2019 Kentucky Derby Analysis

After my defeat in the 2018 Kentucky Derby I told myself I would spend more time watching the preps and getting to know the contenders before May came around. It must have been the tenth time I told myself that. Maybe in 2020!

Regardless, I had my analysis and various contributions ready to go until I saw the news on Wednesday afternoon that Omaha Beach had scratched. With deadlines to meet and a crazy work and travel soccer schedule ahead of me I was a little crunched for time redoing my analysis.

Some people think when a horse scratches, you just pick your next horse. In the case of Omaha Beach, it completely blew up the pace model I had built. While thankful that I know about this change now, not the day of the Kentucky Derby when I am sitting at soccer tryouts, did change not only my pace model, but a few of my contenders.

Above are my Pace Based Speed Ratings (PBSR) for the Kentucky Derby.

My explanation of the probable pace will be posted on US Racing. Rather than regurgitate the probable pace scenarios here, please click and watch the graphics as I explain how the race will set up.

So let’s get down to business.

8 Tacitus (8-1) – Two races as a three-year-old, two wins. He is looking to be the first colt to exit the Wood Memorial and win the Derby since Funny Cide in 2003. As a matter of fact, in the last 19 years the Wood Memorial has produced 43 Derby runners with only three winners (Funny Cide 2003, Monarchos 2001, and Fusiachi Pegasus in 2000). He does have the highest Pace Based Speed Rating (PBSR) in the field, largely off the two hot paces he encountered in both the Wood and the Tampa Bay Derby. What makes the Wood effort even more appealing is that he overcame some early trouble and still prevailed. I expect the early pace to be contested here even with the defection of Omaha Beach and expect Tacitus to stalk the field from five to eight lengths, sitting in the top half of the field. Tacitus is a Tapit colt who should have no issue with the distance or an off track. Tapit has produced three recent Belmont Stakes winners so the distance is not going to be an issue.

19 Spinoff (30-1) – The post may hurt his chances the most here. I like his last two effort both against hot paces and a troubled trip. He wants to be close to the pace which is going to be a tough task from the far outside. Again, distance is not an issue for a Hard Spun colt with Gone West as his damsire. I think Manny Franco may roll the dice and shoot to the front early.

6 Vekoma (15-1) – He has shown some ability to rate off the pace and won the Blue Grass. The last horse to exit the Blue Grass and win the Derby was Street Sense in 2007, however in the last 19 years the Blue Grass has managed only that one winner in 73 starters sent to post in the Derby. I wasn’t overly impressed with his effort in the Fountain of Youth but think he’ll be key in pushing the expected front runner, Maximum Security, along early to set up the race for Tacitus.

17 Roadster (5-1) – I like this horse. He is entering the Derby just like Justify did last year by winning the Santa Anita Derby after winning a non-winners-of-one allowance race prior. Bob Baffert is always dangerous here and I suspect we haven’t seen this horse run to his full potential yet. I think the pedigree is strong, but others are stronger here. I expect him to be a factor late.

7 Maximum Security (8-1) – I passed on him in the Florida Derby. There was no way I thought he’d get to set a soft pace and cruise home. I was wrong. He only has that one walk in the park race around two turns for comparison, so it is hard to figure what will happen with some pressure in the Derby. With the speedy Vekoma right on his tail he will likely have to go faster than he would like early. Still a contender though given the chance that no one wants to challenge him until it is too late.

Potential for Value:  High

Confidence:  Low (My most probable pace scenario is only a 40% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Small Exacta 8 / 6, 7, 17, 19 and reversed 6, 7, 17, 19 / 8

Small Trifecta 8 / 6, 7, 17, 19 / 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 17, 19

Small Superfecta Box  6, 8, 17, 19 or some mix of combinations including 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, or 13 for the lower spots

WPS 8

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back, enjoy a mint julep, and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports!

The Process... Leading Up to the Kentucky Derby

On Friday night, a mere eight days from the Kentucky Derby, I found myself answering some questions about the Kentucky Derby. I was at a great local community fund raiser where I proudly donated boxes for food donations, hung signs, and did odd and end tasks to help the Cranford Jaycees pull off their 13th annual Beefsteak Dinner.

I love talking about horse racing to anyone who will listen. I love talking about horse racing to anyone who doesn't want to listen either.

As the room got fuller and louder, I kept running into friends and acquaintances from all aspects of my life - kid's sports, scouts, the Jaycees, etc. Several beers into the night the conversations were generally short and cordial, but many had a common theme.

"Who do you like in the Kentucky Derby?"

I was flattered. I am still flattered. I am thrilled that so many people actually pay attention to the articles and blog posts I write to want to know what I think when there are so many other "experts" on the interweb for them to follow.

I had to explain to some that I still haven't locked on my winner yet. That I have a "process" for handicapping the Kentucky Derby.

After eating what amounted to about a cow and half in filet mignon, but before the meat sweats kicked in, I did explain to one guy what I meant by the "process".

Three Weeks Out 
After the last set of qualifying prep races, I get the past performances for all the contenders. I am usually so busy with work and coaching I don't do a darn thing with them at this point.

Two Weeks Out
I have unsuccessfully prayed for rain to cancel soccer practice, however I do get a clear Wednesday night and the fun can begin!

The first thing I do is select a running line from each horse for pace analysis and create my pace based speed ratings. I assess the strength of each horse's running styles, including all of the top 30 horses at this point. I start to populate a matrix with jockeys (if named), trainers, sire and dam sire pedigree, and any of my handicapping angles that each horse may meet.

No contenders are selected at this point.

One Week Out
After seeing reports that every Derby entrant has just had the "exact workout we wanted" and they are all "primed for a big race", I get back to work. By now I have started to manually chart out my pace scenarios. Using an engineer's pad, I lay out probable fractions and adjust the positioning of each horse based on their comfortable fractions and the expected.

I will repeat this process with alternate pace scenarios.

Finally, I will have a list of contenders - both for the top spot and for the underneath. There may be as many as five contenders for the top spot and another five for the exotics.

What factors play into the selection of contenders? Pace, pedigree, class, jockey, trainer, strength of prep races, and my pace based speed figures.

The Week Of
My approach to the Kentucky Derby is different than other stakes races. If this was just the ninth race at Monmouth Park that happened to be a stakes race, I would just pass on the race at this point.

I start to refine my contenders, After all it is the Kentucky Derby and you have to at least pick one horse to be on top, right? I finish assessing the strength of the prep race fields and pace. I will "thin the herd" further at this point and land on my top contender, other top contenders, and exotic contenders.

Tuesday
When the post positions are drawn and final field is announced, I will go back and double check my pace analysis and pace based speed figures based on the final field.

Wednesday
I finalize my pace analysis. I challenge myself and each contender I have selected to this point under different pace scenarios.

Given the night off from soccer means I have a lot of work to do. I start to prep my graphics for my pace video and start cranking out a blog post. This is when my top choice will be ready!

Thursday
Time to record the audio and create a pace video. My picks are set. My blog analysis is 90% done. I have started to layout my wagering structure (if any).

Friday
Production time! I try to get all my media out on Friday (or Saturday morning at the latest).

Saturday
This year I'll have to figure out how to get home from soccer in time for the race.

While the Kentucky Derby never falls into the "play" category based on my handicapping, I always throw a few bucks on the race. It is always a great betting race given the amount of chaos that can happen with horses that are still developing.

Check back for my pace video at US Racing and my detailed analysis here at the end of the week.

So get ready to "Talk Derby to Me"...  Who do you like???

Lucky #13 - 2018 Belmont Stakes Analysis

It’s been an up and down year for my Triple Crown selections. I was a bust in the Derby with Audible and there was no denying Justify in the Preakness. While Justify was short odds, I did manage to make some money on him though.

Last year, made a killing on the Belmont Stakes with Tapwrit. I am looking to continue that trend in a race that looks to offer plenty of value.

As I remind myself (and you) every year, the Belmont Stakes is one of the toughest races to handicap. Horses are being asked to go two or more furlongs farther than they have ever gone before. For some entrants, they are trying a fast track around two turns for the first time. These three year olds are developing and maturing each day and many are more likely to improve than regress here. While pedigree seems to be playing less and less into the winners of the longer races for these young horses, you can’t simply ignore it. One of these horses will win.

Rather than get into great detail on the pace of this race, you can see my pace analysis video exclusively at US Racing which will be posted on my author page on Friday.

So let’s get down to business and see if the number 13 is a lucky number for Justify as he looks to become the 13^th horse to win the coveted Triple Crown.

Above you can see my figures and assessment for the field.

4 Hofburg (9-2) – He is sired by Tapit who has had his progeny win three of the last four Belmont Stakes (Tonalist 2014, Creator 2016, and Tapwrit 2017). He is bred for the distance and had an abysmal trip in the Kentucky Derby (brushed at the start and steadied twice). He faced a hot pace in the Florida Derby (half mile in 46.1s, ¾ mile in 1:11.3s) and will relish the seemingly pedestrian projected half mile of 47.3s and ¾ mile of 1:12.3s. I expect a big improvement in this colt here.

8 Vino Rosso (8-1) – This son of Curlin never really had a shot in the Derby but looks to improve with the faster than average projected pace here. He is the stronger Pletcher entry of the two, so expect Noble Indy to be his “rabbit” and help push the pace to his liking.

7 Tenfold (12-1) – He really impressed me in the Preakness despite a troubled trip. He had a lackluster prep in the Arkansas Derby, but seems to be rounding into form and can be expected to move forward here.  He is the second Curlin colt in this race (Vino Rosso) and does have Tapit as his dam-sire. I expect a strong race – it was a tough decision between him and Vino Rosso for my second and third selections.

3 Bravazo (8-1) – Off of a gutsy performance almost catching Justify in the Preakness and finishing respectably in the Derby after a troubled trip while being forced W-I-D-E makes me think he could out run his pedigree. The ability to stalk and press the pace gives him some versatility and he should find the pace to be fairly comfortable.

1 Justify (4-5) – The horse to beat. Undefeated. Trying to be Lucky #13. He has had a great run. First horse since Apollo in 1882 to with the Kentucky Derby without starting as a two-year old. Bob Baffert produces contenders. Mike Smith rides winners. I think his form is starting to move off of peak and his pedigree isn’t suggesting he has the stamina to make it 12 furlongs. I wanted to like him in this spot, but think he is vulnerable. I think he has a solid shot of hitting your exotics, but just not making history.

Potential for Value:  High (vulnerable favorite)

Confidence:  Moderate (My most probable pace scenario is only at 30% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Win/Place/Show – 4

Small Exacta – 4,7,8 with 1,3,4,7,8

Small Trifecta – 4,7,8 with 3,4,7,8 with 1,3,4,6,7,8

Small Superfecta – 4,7,8 with 3,4,7,8 with 1,3,4,6,7,8 with 1,3,4,6,7,8,10

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back and enjoy the race!

Get Your Preak On! - 2018 Preakness Analysis

So much for the Curse of Apollo!

Justify broke one of the longest droughts in sports by winning the Kentucky Derby after not running as a two year old. This was last done in 1882 by Apollo.

Streaks are meant to be broken.

My picks tanked on Derby Day. I admit that I really gave Justify no chance. Looking at his Brisnet speed ratings he did underperform (running a 102 after running a 114 in the Santa Anita Derby). This lends itself to the "law of averages" which I believe in more than the "bounce theory".

Two weeks later it is time for redemption. The Preakness is the second leg of the road to the Triple Crown and has some of its own interesting facts.

My pace analysis will be posted at US Racing, but as usual, my more detailed analysis is going to be posted here.

The smaller field favors the horse with the largest pace advantage on this field. So here is my 2018 Preakness analysis.

7 Justify (1-2) - The race sets up perfectly for him in this spot. He has a 4/5 of a second advantage on pace and while not likely to set the pace, he figures to stay close most of the way and outlast the weak front runners. Jockey Mike Smith may only have one win in 16 tries here with his lone winners coming back in 1993 on Prairie Bayou, but he has a horse that should improve off his Derby effort. Bob Baffert has won a third of the 18 times he has sent a horse to post in the Preakness, winning last in 2015 with American Pharoah.

2 Lone Sailor (15-1) - The weak early speed that is anticipated will also allow a strong closer to make strides late. The pace will be a bit slower than the Derby and will allow a late run for him to get a minor share here.

5 Good Magic (3-1) - I'll admit that I also underestimated this colt in the Derby. Honestly, I haven't given any horse that prepped in the Blue Grass any credit in years! Chad Brown won this race last year with a huge effort from Cloud Computing, yet I still feel that this one will be chasing Justify late and quite possibly on the downswing after his Derby effort.

1 Quip (12-1) - I like this colt. I wanted him to run in the Derby, but felt that the pace would be too fast for him there. It will be too fast for him here also even though he can press the pace. I think there will be great things for this colt in the future, but a modest showing here will land him in the top half of the field.

What do think I will play?

With Justify at 1-2, there is no real value to play him to win unless he floats up to 1-1. I suspect he will go off close to the morning line odds unless some major negative development unfolds in the next few days...

Exacta - 7 / 1, 2, 5

Small Trifecta -  7 / 1, 2, 5 / 1, 2, 5

Small Superfecta - 7 / 1, 2, 5 / 1, 2, 5 / 1, 2, 5, 8 (on the fence about including 6 Tenfold on the bottom here as well)

Remember to check for scratches and changes and make your changes accordingly!

Good luck!

Here We Go Again! – 2018 Kentucky Derby Analysis

The pressure is off now! Last year I broke out of my Kentucky Derby slump with Always Dreaming. While I basically broke even on my final wagers that day, it was a huge weight lifted off of my shoulders. I can now say the last two Kentucky Derby winners I selected were Always Dreaming and Smarty Jones!

I didn’t fare too well with the Preakness, but rebounded to score some serious “folding money” with Tapwrit in the Belmont Stakes.

This year finds me in a similar situation as last year. Overworked and traveling the state once again for the twin’s insane travel soccer schedule. I have been sneaking race replay videos on my lunch hour and on my phone while waiting for soccer games to start.

My explanation of the probable pace will be posted on USRacing. Rather than regurgitate the probable pace scenarios here, please click and watch the graphics as I explain how the race will set up.

So let’s get down to business.

5 Audible (8-1) – He ran a huge race in the Florida Derby which has produced five Derby winners since 2000 (2006 Barbaro, 2008 Big Brown, 2013 Orb, 2016 Nyquist, and 2017 Always Dreaming).
The last horse to win both the Florida Derby and Holy Bull was the great Barbaro in 2006.  He has the top Pace Based Speed Rating (PBSR) that I have computed in this field with a figure of 103. While some may be deterred by Todd Pletcher’s 2-for-48 record in the Derby and Javier Castellano’s 0-for-13 mark, these two hook up for a lot of big wins (recently 22%). Todd Pletcher will enter any horse that makes it into this field so the 46 losses skews his performance. Like the last few Kentucky Derbies, the expected weak early speed will set up nicely for Audible’s style. He overcame being wide early in the Florida Derby and ran some impressive late fractions. He did drift a little down the stretch, but you can put a knock against any horse in this field. After all, he did run one of the best final furlongs of all the entrants. Starting from post 5 next to two of the likely pacesetters (3 Promises Fulfilled and 4 Flameaway) will allow him to get a good trip early.

14 Mendelssohn (5-1) – The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf champion and UAE Derby winner. He is a bit of an enigma. Traditionally UAE Derby horses have run poorly in the Kentucky Derby, and it is hard to try to compare pace fractions from overseas races. I am not sold that he beat a great field in the UAE Derby, but did win commandingly in his lone dirt start.  Beyond his UAE win and the Turf win at Del Mar last fall as a juvenile, he hasn’t faced any real tough competition and hasn’t been that dominant. He will figure near the pace early if he can get away cleanly, but doubt remains on this one.

10 My Boy Jack (30-1) – Closers have a heck of a task navigating their way to the front with a full field of 20. Orb (2013), Mine That Bird (2009), Street Sense (2007), and Giacomo (2005) are the only horses in the last 18 years to overcome a 10 length or greater deficit at the second call to win. I think My Boy Jack can be a late factor like Lookin at Lee in 2017 and Commanding Curve in 2014 were. The Desormeaux brothers will have a live runner here.

9 Hofburg (20-1) – This lightly raced colt chased Audible home in the Florida Derby. I see plenty of chance for improvement here, but will likely find himself needing to overcome a huge deficit late. He does have some late kick, but not enough for the top spot.

Potential for Value:  High

Confidence:  Low (My most probable pace scenario is only a 50% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing? 

Small Exacta 5 / 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 17

Small Trifecta 5 / 9, 10, 14 / 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 16, 17

Small Superfecta  Box  5, 9, 10, 14 or some mix of combinations including 8, 11, 14, 16, and 17 for the lower spots

WPS 5

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first before I finalize my bets noted above.

So sit back, enjoy a mint julep, and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports!

He's Going the Distance - 2017 Belmont Stakes Analysis

To quote some of the lyrics from “Going the Distance” by Cake:

Because he's racing and pacing and plotting the course
He's fighting and biting and riding on his horse
He's racing and pacing and plotting the course
He's fighting and biting and riding on his horse

He's going the distance
He's going for speed
He's going the distance

The Belmont Stakes is one of the toughest races to handicap. Horses are being asked to go two or more furlongs farther than they have ever gone before. For some entrants, they are trying a fast track around two turns for the first time. These three year olds are developing and maturing each day and many are more likely to improve than regress here. While pedigree seems to be playing less and less into the winners of the longer races for these young horses, you can’t simply ignore it. One of these horses will win. One of the will have to “go the distance”

Rather than get into great detail on the pace of this race, you can see my pace analysis video exclusively at US Racing. (This is my author link, all of my work for US Racing is compiled here and the video will be posted shortly).

So let’s get down to business.

Above you can see my figures and assessment for the field.

2 Tapwrit (6-1) – This son of Tapit has the breeding to run all day long. He was one of the many who had a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby yet still managed to grind his way from fifteenth to sixth. I’ll give him a pass on being unprepared at the start of the Bluegrass two races back and expect him to give chase to a contested early pace and make a big late run.

7 Irish War Cry (7-2) – Like so many others, we’ll give him a pass on his Kentucky Derby performance. I am expecting an effort similar to his big win in the Wood Memorial, but question his ability to command the last three furlongs here.

11 Epicharis (4-1) – While I am writing this, I am hearing that he was treated for lameness in Thursday morning but expects to run. He has shown a versatile running style, both on the front end and from off the pace. He ran a huge race only to lose in a photo to Thunder Snow in Dubai after a strong effort coming off the pace in Tokyo in the Hyacinth Stakes two back. I simply question his soundness and if he can get the distance here.

10 Multiplier (15-1) – Again owns the top Pace Based Speed Rating (PBSR) in this group as he did in the Preakness. The slower fractions here should help his chances, but I am not seeing the most likely winner here being a closer. I suspect that he will be short, but factor in your exotics.

 6 Lookin At Lee (5-1) – I underestimated him going into the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Yet despite a clean trip, he wasn’t going to catch Always Dreaming in the Derby. Once again, he has a big late move, but I still don’t think it is enough for him to win. I only added him  here since I am not sure that Epicharis will run.

Potential for Value:  Moderate (you’ll have to do that on the bottoms of your tickets)

Confidence:  Low (My most probable pace scenario is only at 30% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Win/Place/Show – 2

Small Exacta – 2, 7 with 2, 6, 7, 10, 11

Small Trifecta – 2, 7 with 2, 6, 7, 10, 11 with 2, 6, 7, 10, 11

Small Superfecta  Box  2, 6, 7, 10, 11

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back and enjoy the race!

The Curse is Lifted! 2017 Preakness Analysis!

There have been some pretty epic sports curses. Whether it was the Cubs or the Boston Red Sox, it seems that these curses are eventually lifted. Both Boston and Chicago have gone on to finally win a World Series. As luck would have it, my mini-Kentucky Derby curse has also been lifted thanks to Always Dreaming and a pace that set up pretty darn close to as predicted (click here to see my Derby pace video).

Last week, I played "Mythbusters" with the Preakness. Click here to check that article out!

Rather than get into great detail on the pace of this race, you can see my pace analysis video exclusively at US Racing which will be up soon! (This is my author link, all of my work for US Racing is compiled here).

So let’s get down to business. Above are my Pace Based Speed Ratings (PBSR) for this field as well as my take on the pace of each horse.

4 Always Dreaming (4-5) – Went off as the favorite and won the Kentucky Derby with a clean trip. The pace set up perfectly for him as State of Honor ran right out to the front. I expect Conquest Mo Money to do the same thing here to set a favorable pace. This colt has shown he can run on the front, come from off the pace, and handle the fractions that he has seen. Always Dreaming is in top form and will be tough to beat here.

5 Classic Empire (3-1) – He was roughed up a bit early in the Kentucky Derby, but I am not sure that a clean trip would have gotten him the win. Once again the pace is favorable, so figure he been a factor late.

1 Multiplier (30-1) – Owns the top Pace Based Speed Rating in this group, but will not have the likely early pace in his favor. I expect a slight bounce downwards here from him, but he should be good enough to add value to your exotics.

 9 Lookin At Lee (10-1) – I underestimated him going into the Kentucky Derby. Yet despite a clean trip, he wasn’t going to catch Always Dreaming two weeks ago. He has a big late move, but I still don’t think it is enough for him to win. He is more likely to add some value to the bottom of a chalky ticket.

Potential for Value:  Moderate (you’ll have to do that on the bottoms of your tickets)

Confidence:  Low (My most probable pace scenario is only at 50% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Small Exacta – 4 with 1, 5, 6, 9

Small Trifecta – 4 with 1, 5, 6, 9 with 1, 5, 6, 9

Small Superfecta  Box  1, 4, 5, 9

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back, enjoy a Black-Eyed Susan, and enjoy the race!

Blinkers On - 2017 Kentucky Derby Analysis

It has been an interesting year since I last posted my ill-fated Derby selections for 2016. Once I again, I kept my streak intact, having not picked the Kentucky Derby winner since Smarty Jones in 2004. I zigged when I should have zagged, I loved Nyquist and the way the race set up for him, but couldn’t help but think that Mor Spirit would rebound. I was wrong again. This year I am bucking that trend.

Smarty Jones was one heck of a horse. In 2003 I was providing daily racing selections for Parx during the Monmouth/Meadowlands off season. During those pre-children years, I often found my way to the track regularly. A two year old first time starter caught my eye. I watched him in the paddock before that debut and confirmed he was my choice that day. He was also my choice every day after that.

2004 was the last time I followed the Derby trail. That fall, my wife and I were expecting our first child who will appreciate that I didn’t try to sneak “Smarty” or “Jones” in as his middle name. We were also packing up and selling our house. No rest for the weary!

I’ll admit that work and life have been especially busy the last few months. A promotion at work coupled with driving the twins all over the great state of New Jersey for travel soccer has forced me to follow the Derby trail even less than I had in previous years. This is a good thing.

I enter this Kentucky Derby with my “Blinkers On”. I am not listening to the hype, watching endless videos of a contender gallop only to have everyone comment on what is positive or negative about the run. I downloaded and printed the contenders out a few days ago. This is the first time I am even looking back at the major preps and who did what.

My explanation of the probable pace scenario is featured at US Racing. Rather than regurgitate the probable pace scenarios here, please click and watch the graphics as I explain how the race will set up.

So let’s get down to business.

5 Always Dreaming (5-1) – He ran a huge race in the Florida Derby which has produced four Derby winners since 2000 (2006 Barbaro, 2008 Big Brown, 2013 Orb, and 2016 Nyquist). He has the top Pace Based Speed Rating (PBSR) that I have computed in this field with a figure of 99. While some may be deterred by Todd Pletchers 1-for-45 record in the Derby and John Velazquez’s 1-for-18 mark, these are two top horsemen that have both won this race (Pletcher with Super Saver in 2010 and Velazquez with Animal Kingdom in 2011). Always Dreaming was test in the Florida Derby and had to come from off the pace after two comfortable romps to break his maiden and take an allowance optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs. The last horse to have a two-back prep that was an allowance optional claiming race that went on to win the Derby was Animal Kingdom.

14 Classic Empire (4-1) – The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile champion had a rough go of it in the Holy Bull being wide early and overcame some trouble and a quick pace to capture the Arkansas Derby. The last horse that had a two-back prep race in the Holy Bull that won the Derby was the great Barbaro in 2006. Neither Mark Casse or Julian Leparoux has had any success at this level, but they have a great shot here with this colt. He will need to stay a couple lengths off of the early pace but in front of the pack of runners that will sit looking for a late run.

19 Practical Joke (20-1) – He showed some good late run against a soft pace in the Blue Grass. It is tough to decipher how strong his late run can be since four of his six running lines show trouble. Steadied in the first turn of the Fountain of Youth two back, he made a wide move late, but couldn’t catch Gunnevera. A clean trip gets Joel Rosario his second Derby win (Orb 2013) and Trainer Chad Brown his first Derby win.

17 Irish War Cry (6-1) – He won both the Holy Bull and Wood Memorial, but threw in a clunker in the Fountain of Youth. I am assuming the real Irish War Cry shows up for this race and like Always Dreaming and Classic Empire, sitting a few lengths off the lead but ahead of the herd. Trainer Graham Motion did win the Derby in 2011 with Animal Kingdom but no horse has exited the Wood Memorial and won the Derby since Funny Cide in 2003. While a contender, it is interesting to note that since 2000, every Kentucky Derby winner has finished in the money in their two-back prep race (Irish War Cry finished seventh).

Potential for Value:  High

Confidence:  Low (My most probable pace scenario is only a 50% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Small Exacta 5, 14 / 5, 14, 17, 19

Small Trifecta 5, 14 / 5, 14, 17, 19 / 5, 7, 9, 14, 17, 19

Small Superfecta  Box  5, 14, 17, 19

WPS 5

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back, enjoy a mint julep, and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports!

Bombs Away at Big Sandy

It has been three weeks since Exaggerator upset Nyquist down in Baltimore.  Nyquist is out after having come down with a fever just after the Preakness.  Did this affect his performance on that rainy day in Baltimore or was it the decision to chase the early pace that did him in?  Maybe a little bit of both.  Regardless of my inability to put the winning horse on top, I know some of my friends who actually read this blog did manage to make a few bucks on the Preakness as Cherry Wine got up to add some value.  Let’s all make a few bucks on the Belmont Stakes this year too!

Fast forward to today and we have a weather forecast that appears less threatening as we head into the weekend.  It looks like mid to upper 70’s with a chance of rain and storms in the afternoon and evening which should not affect the running surface at Big Sandy.  There are plenty of new faces to square off against the lone two entrants to make all three legs of the Triple Crown – Exaggerator and Lani.

Saturday June 11, 2016

Belmont – Race 11

1-1/2 miles - Dirt – Belmont Stakes G1

10 Lani (20-1) – This colt intrigues me.  He is out of Tapit who sired Tonalist who won the 2014 edition of this race defeating California Chrome.  His two US starts have been busts, but there is something I like about this one.  His Preakness effort made me think of my own son Charlie and how he plays soccer on Saturday mornings.  He hangs back on defense for most of the game, playing a sound fundamental game, but somewhere in the last ten minutes things change.  Out of nowhere, he gets the ball, fakes a pass, and starts dribbling up the field passing opponents until he finds himself in position to take a shot.  Lani sat back at the Preakness and much like I predicted in my pace analysis was not much of a factor through the second call.  Then something happened.  Just like Charlie deciding to take the ball up, Lani started making a nice move closing to within five lengths at the wire with what seemed like some gas in the tank.  Rumor is that the Belmont surface is just like what he liked racing over in Japan.  I think he comes to run today.

13 Creator (10-1) – This is the other Tapit colt in this race who also possesses a big late move.  I remember watching his Arkansas Derby effort and thinking that if he could just catch another weak early pace he would have a shot.  This is his chance here.  I like the switch to the local rider in Irad Ortiz who is one of the better jocks on the NY circuit.  It could be close between him and Lani late in this race.  Assmussen’s other entry here, 6 Gettysburg (30-1) looks to play the part of the rabbit here to set the pace up for a closer – just like in the Arkansas Derby.

11 Exaggerator (9-5) – He is a deserving favorite and I expect to see the same tactics he employed in the Preakness here again.  This son of Curlin is bread for distance, but I think he hits the wall in the stretch. 

4 Suddenbreakingnews (10-1) – This son of Mineshaft leaves me scratching my head.  Thought to be a gelding, but later determined to be a ridgling.  Does this make a big difference?  It sure does to him I suppose, but with increased testosterone levels of late and being a bit of a late developer I think we have not seen his best work yet.  His pedigree suggests he can likely go the distance. 

Spoilers in the bottom of your exotics:

2 Destin (6-1) – Should show some great improvement off of a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby and the Tampa Bay Derby, but his pedigree is a little suspect for 12 furlongs today.

3 Cherry Wine (8-1) – He looks a little short on distance and when the others make a big late move he’ll be trying his best, but will fall short.

5 Stradivari (5-1) – Doesn’t look likely to get the distance but should be close to the front of the field early and may have enough in the tank to fend off a few of the late runners.

Most Likely Pace Scenario:  Weak Early Speed – Closers

6 Gettysburg (30-1) is Assmussen’s rabbit in this race.  This one dimensional front runner will get on the lead early, just like he did in the Arkansas Derby.  I expect 2 Destin (6-1) and 5 Stradivari (5-1) to stay with him early and apply some pressure.  1 Governor Malibu (12-1) and 11 Exaggerator will be a few lengths off of the leaders early.  7 Seeking the Soul (30-1) will be a bit of a wild card here, never having tried two turns and is most likely to be set with this group early.  The balance of the field will be towards the rear early. 

As Gettysburg falters between six furlongs and mile, the closers start to make their move on the early pressers.  While I think Exaggerator will be game to the stretch, I think he finds his limit in distance and Lani and Creator get past him at the wire.

In other pace scenarios, there is a relaxed early pace, although still set by the same horse.  This would benefit Exaggerator and Destin more than the pack of closers. 

If time permits, I will try to get some graphics up on my youtube channel. 

How would I play this race?

Potential for Value:  High

Confidence:  Low

I would consider playing my top four in boxes – exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.  I may play around with the trifecta or superfecta putting the top three choices on top and adding in Destin and Cherry Wine underneath. 

So grab a Belmont Breeze (bourbon, sherry, orange, cranberry, and mint) and enjoy the race!

Where's the Value in the Preakness?

Two weeks ago I went with value instead of form and selected Mor Spirit over Nyquist.  This added to my Kentucky Derby drought as Smarty Jones still remains my last Kentucky Derby Winner!  Nyquist proved to all of his detractors that he could get the distance, which was one of the same arguments many people made against American Pharoah last year. 

We are all in luck this year.  My Preakness slump ended last year when I jumped on the American Pharoah band wagon and after looking at the field for this year and the replay of the Kentucky Derby for about the umpteenth time, I find no reason to go against Nyquist.

My pace analysis is posted at US Racing and I will also discuss the pace on my youtube channel so I am not going to rehash the entire pace here again. 

3 Nyquist (3-5) – I have no knocks on this horse.  In the Kentucky Derby he faced a faster than anticipated early pace and responded showing a ton of patience as Danzing Candy went out firing on all cylinders posting a half mile time of 45.3 seconds.  This horse has the most tactical speed in the field and will handle whatever fractions are thrown at him.  As with most Preakness fields, there are several well-meant allowance horses here so Nyquist has quite a class advantage here as well.

11 Stradivari (8-1) – Lightly raced Pletcher trainee and despite Pletcher’s inability to hit the board in the Preakness with his seven career starters, this newcomer looks to be a live runner.  The pace should help him here since he has shown the ability to sit back a little early and fire late.  Yet, he hasn’t been tested late in either of his wins so it will be interesting to see how he handles the latter stages of this race when Nyquist digs in. 

5 Exaggerator (5-1) – That late run in the Kentucky Derby was no fluke, however he hasn’t caught Nyquist in four tries.  Arguably the best late runner in this field, but again falls short here.

1 Cherry Wine (20-1) – This horse has shown a strong late run in both the Rebel and Blue Grass.  Since there is so much weak early speed here, I expect him to make another big move here despite falling well short of Nyquist.

Potential for Value:  Low

Confidence:  High

So what may I potential play in a race where the 3-5 favorite is likely to dominate?

Small Exacta 3 / 1, 5, 11

Small Trifecta 3 / 1, 5, 11 / 1, 5, 7, 10, 11

Small Superfecta 3 / 1, 5, 11 / 1, 5, 7, 10, 11 / 1, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11

I don’t think the wet weather affects the field here that greatly.  Should there be a couple of scratches, I think quartet of early speed horses (Abiding Star, Awesome Speed, Laoban, and Uncle Lino) will all fail under pressure anyway – either from each other or from Nyquist and Stradivari.

Grab yourself a black-eyed susan and enjoy the race! 

Warning: You Are Losing Money by Not Using My Kentucky Derby Picks

I often think of my evening runs up to the Meadowlands with my friend Walter and several of the track denizens we regularly encountered.  One particular gentlemen routinely voiced his frustration over wagers that he did not place that came in as winners.  I can remember the first time Walter and I heard him exclaim, "I just lost $12,000!"  We both nearly had our beers shoot out through our noses as we stared in disbelief at each other.  How could a man lost $12,000 on a single race?  The truth was not that interesting.  Fernando simply did not win $12,000.  He never wagered a dime on the race and was merely disgusted with the outcome being favorable given his selections.   Using Fernando's logic, I lost $7,691 on the 2014 Kentucky Derby by not playing the superfecta despite touting the top four horses in that race (see my old blog post Conflicted in Kentucky).

My recent affiliation with US Racing has given me limited time to blog here, but it is the Kentucky Derby and I know many of you are eager to know what I am thinking this year, especially Mike (a.k.a. "Ace"), who was the only one to cash in on my ill fated 2014 Kentucky Derby picks.  In my weekly US Racing article, Why Your Mom Was Right about the Kentucky Derby Pace, I offer up the most probable pace scenario and will not rehash that here (click the link and get me some much needed page views!).  So I will curt right through the chase and with my contenders.

17 Mor Spirit (12-1) - This one grew on me over the past few weeks.  The pace will set up for him here with some weak early speed and a nice pressing/stalking trip.  His past performances are a bit deceiving - he had trouble in his last two races.  Last out in the Santa Anita Derby he faced some torrid fractions set by the One Dimensional Frontrunner Danzing Candy and he did not like the sloppy track.  The likely pace of the Derby should not have a half mile in under 46 seconds.  Two back in the San Felipe he ran into some trouble early which allowed Danzing Candy to get loose on the lead without any pressure causing him to falter.  I am looking for an improvement off of the race he ran three back in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.  I expect him to sit a few lengths off the lead and make a big late move here.  Bob Baffert is the best recent Kentucky Derby trainer with four wins.  Gary Stevens knows how to win big races.  He has won the Derby three times including a win for Baffert in '97 with Silver Charm and a third place finish in '98 on Orientate.

13 Nyquist (3-1) - I gave Mor Spirit a slight edge here, but Nyquist will run a huge race as well given the probable pace.  I have no knock against him given the solid connections of O'Neill and Gutierrez.  I don't think that Nyquist will move forward as much as Mor Spirit will in the Derby.

4 Mo Tom (20-1) - This is my upset horse.  Knowing that closers will have a tough time with traffic issues in this race, I expect him to run into some trouble as he did in his last three starts.

3 Creator (10-1) - He suffers the same fate as Mo Tom - trying to close through a ton of traffic against two strong late runners.  Assmussen has a strong Tapit colt here who's breeding suggests that he can run all day and he showed a huge late effort to win the Blue Grass.

2 Suddenbreakingnews (20-1) - He is another strong closer that falls victim to the strong pace of Mor Spirit and Nyquist.  He could find his way into the bottom half of your exotics.

Potential for Value:  High
Confidence:  Low

So what am I toying with playing?

Small Exacta 13,17 / 2, 3, 4, 13, 17
Small Trifecta 13, 17 / 2, 3, 4, 13, 17 / 2, 3, 4, 13, 17
Small Superfecta 13, 17 / 2, 3, 4, 13, 17 / 2, 3, 4, 13, 17 / 2, 3, 4, 13, 17
WPS 17

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back, enjoy a mint julep, and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports!