Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Hold All Tickets! - 2019 Preakness Analysis

The 2019 Kentucky Derby was certainly…. Interesting to say the least. One of my pace scenarios almost held up. Well, it held up for about 22 minutes until they took Maximum Security down. Disqualification aside, he proved to me that he didn’t need to set a soft fraction to take a race wire to wire like he did in the Florida Derby.

Like many horseplayers, I just move on to the next race.

My explanation of the probable pace will be posted on US Racing. Rather than regurgitate the probable pace scenarios here, please click and watch the graphics as I explain how the race will set up.

Here is how my Pace Based Speed Ratings (PBSR) stack up:

So let’s get down to business.

12 Anothertwistafate (6-1) – The son of Scat Daddy had a rough go in the Lexington last out and still managed to place to Owendale who had a dream trip. Two back in the Sunland Derby he faced a hot pace and was forced to rate for the first time. I think this colt is developing nicely after being the early pace horse in three tries at Golden Gate.  

4 Improbable (5-2) – Bob Baffert and Mike Smith are back at it with the Kentucky Derby favorite. Toss the Kentucky Derby and he has shown he can track off the pace well. He just needs to finish. With a couple of one dimensional front runners in this field, he may have enough to last late.

1 War of Will (4-1) – Toss that Kentucky Derby effort and we’ll give him a pass on the lackluster effort in the Louisiana Derby two back. He was making up ground and setting up for a move before running into trouble in the Kentucky Derby. I think he flies under the radar a bit off of those two efforts and adds some value here.

2 Bourbon War (12-1) – He couldn’t get anything going in the Florida Derby as Maximum Security ran his race. A pace like the Fountain of Youth two back gives him a better chance here. He is out of Tapit who has produced a lot of longer distances winners. If he runs well here, I like his chances in the Belmont Stakes as well.

8 Signalman (30-1) – The faster the early pace goes, the more I like him in this spot. I don’t think he’ll land the top spot, but he’ll be looming late in your exotics.

Potential for Value:  Medium-High
Confidence:  Medium (My most probable pace scenario has a 60% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Small Exacta 12 /  1, 2, 4, 8
Small Trifecta 12 / 1, 2, 4, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 8
Small Superfecta Box  1, 2, 4, 8, 12
WPS 12

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back and enjoy the race!

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