Belmont 2022!

 Why is it that the week of the Belmont Stakes is one of my craziest weeks of the year? My swan song coaching rugby started, I am prepping for my first presentation at a conference, and everyone at work wants a pound of flesh!

So we'll keep it short and sweet.

I am torn 50/50 on top but will give the edge to the Uncle Mo colt...

6 Mo Donegal 5-2

5 Creative Minister 6-1

1 We The People 2-1

4 Rich Strike 7-2

The pace? I see this going down one of two ways. Either weak early speed from We The People, most likely pressured by Nest and Mo Donegal and Creative Minister pick up the pieces -or- We The People takes it wire to wire.

Like I say every year, maybe next year I'll be able to really dive into this one!

Preakness 2022

 No Triple Crown this year. Rethink the Triple Crown. The races are too long.

This porridge is too cold, this porridge is too hot... 

Give someone a reason and they'll complain about anything. Rich Strike had the race of a lifetime for connections you have never heard of (and may never hear from again).  I trust the horsemen to do what is right for their horse. I also don't think we need to rethink the Triple Crown. 

More rest, shorter distances? 

Why?

It is HARD to win the Triple Crown, as it should be. That is what makes it special and rare.

Enough of you hearing me roll my eyes from NJ every time someone decides that the Triple Crown needs to change...

On to the matter at hand. Preakness 2022.

I ran the pace a couple of ways and ended up with two possible outcomes (other than chaos - a.k.a. something goes amuck that throws off the race entirely). An off the pace horse should win with a 65% likelihood and a front running winner is a 25% likelihood.

Quick and dirty of how I see it setting up. Fenwick, Early Voting, and Armagnac set the pace. I figure an opening half mile in about 47.0s (plus or minus a tick). The second call should be in about 1:11.2s but by then the off the pace horses will make their move. The strongest of the group is Epicenter who should get a good trip being outside of the speed and the habitually slow breaking Happy Jack (now with blinkers)!

I see the chance that Secret Oath takes a step forward and has a shot at a late run here as well.

In my secondary pace scenario, Early Voting is the most likely front runner to get loose on the lead and set a more comfortable pace (47.2s / 1:12.0s). In that scenario he could take this field wire to wire. This would require the other two front runners to fail to challenge. While possible, not the most probable outcome.

As always, I reserve a 10% likelihood for the unexpected. It could be a troubled trip or a stalker that goes out and sets the pace with blazing fractions.

My top contenders (I feel the top three have the best chance at the winner's circle):

8 Epicenter 6-5

5 Early Voting 7-2

4 Secret Oath 9-2

9 Skippylongstocking 20-1

There is clearly a divide in class in this field, but I think Skippylongstocking is the best of the rest and an find his way onto exotic tickets.

As for betting, this race hits none of my metrics so I will be looking for a six pack of Natty Boh (National Bohemian Beer) to drink instead of a Black Eyed Susan. 

Good luck!

That Snuck Up On Me... Thoughts on the 2022 Kentucky Derby

 I am like a broken record each year (except 2020) at this time. Where did the year go?

Admittedly I have taken one day off so far this year and finally hired some relief at work after countless 80+ hour weeks. Couple the workload with the demise of USRacing, where I spent the last six years writing for fun, and I have been off the Derby Trail again this year.

I don't always get excited about the Kentucky Derby though. In 2017 Always Dreaming ended my slump dating back to my last winning Derby horse in 2004, the great Smarty Jones.

Why don't I get excited? 

You can count on half the field encountering some sort of trouble in the race. A bump, a clipped heel, or being pinched back at the start are all common occurrences. It isn't easy for a closer to navigate through 15 or more horses late after likely going six wide in the turn.

Tradition keeps me looking at (and only watching) this race. I remember the yearly calls to my 90+ year old grandmother who anxiously awaited my call and would mail me clippings from her local newspaper so I "would have the best information".

So here we are in 2022. Drama. Bob Baffert proteges. Preps that left more questions than answers.

12 Taiba (12-1) - this son of Gun Runner bested an up and down Messier last out against a hot pace. Keeping Smith in the irons for Baffert, errr Yakteen doesn't hurt his chances either. The race figures to have some weak early speed and this colt, if he can get a good trip, will find himself in a place to make a late move without a lot of traffic to contend with.

1 Mo Donegal (10-1) - the best of the three Pletcher entrants is out of Uncle Mo who sired 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. We know he can get the distance but his success will be dependent on getting a good start, which is something that plagued him in his first four tries. The Wood Memorial is not a premier prep race and for this colt to have a shot he will need to stay a little closer to the pace than normal.

3 Epicenter (7-2) - is a well deserving second favorite. His last effort in the Louisiana Derby showed he could rate off the pace besting a few of the lesser horses in this field. He will need to rate off the pace and resist the urge to get out to the front. While he has had success on the front end, this field looks to set up more for an off the pace horse with the weak early speed we can expect to see here.

10 Zandon (3-1) - I really want to like this horse more. I made some money off of him in the Bluegrass, but wasn't thrilled with that field. The Bluegrass is a notoriously weak prep and he couldn't get it done against better stock in the Risen Star and Remsen. Figuring he is good for a minor share though.

The probable pace here points to weak early speed and the winner coming from off the pace. I am not looking at a closer, but if Mo Donegal and Zandon can get a perfect trip they will have a shot to upset the apple cart. I am looking to beat the favorite as Taiba ran a huge race and should step forward here. 

Sit back and enjoy this race, my focus is already two weeks out at Pimlico for the Preakness!