Thursday, May 5, 2022

That Snuck Up On Me... Thoughts on the 2022 Kentucky Derby

 I am like a broken record each year (except 2020) at this time. Where did the year go?

Admittedly I have taken one day off so far this year and finally hired some relief at work after countless 80+ hour weeks. Couple the workload with the demise of USRacing, where I spent the last six years writing for fun, and I have been off the Derby Trail again this year.

I don't always get excited about the Kentucky Derby though. In 2017 Always Dreaming ended my slump dating back to my last winning Derby horse in 2004, the great Smarty Jones.

Why don't I get excited? 

You can count on half the field encountering some sort of trouble in the race. A bump, a clipped heel, or being pinched back at the start are all common occurrences. It isn't easy for a closer to navigate through 15 or more horses late after likely going six wide in the turn.

Tradition keeps me looking at (and only watching) this race. I remember the yearly calls to my 90+ year old grandmother who anxiously awaited my call and would mail me clippings from her local newspaper so I "would have the best information".

So here we are in 2022. Drama. Bob Baffert proteges. Preps that left more questions than answers.


12 Taiba (12-1) - this son of Gun Runner bested an up and down Messier last out against a hot pace. Keeping Smith in the irons for Baffert, errr Yakteen doesn't hurt his chances either. The race figures to have some weak early speed and this colt, if he can get a good trip, will find himself in a place to make a late move without a lot of traffic to contend with.

1 Mo Donegal (10-1) - the best of the three Pletcher entrants is out of Uncle Mo who sired 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. We know he can get the distance but his success will be dependent on getting a good start, which is something that plagued him in his first four tries. The Wood Memorial is not a premier prep race and for this colt to have a shot he will need to stay a little closer to the pace than normal.

3 Epicenter (7-2) - is a well deserving second favorite. His last effort in the Louisiana Derby showed he could rate off the pace besting a few of the lesser horses in this field. He will need to rate off the pace and resist the urge to get out to the front. While he has had success on the front end, this field looks to set up more for an off the pace horse with the weak early speed we can expect to see here.

10 Zandon (3-1) - I really want to like this horse more. I made some money off of him in the Bluegrass, but wasn't thrilled with that field. The Bluegrass is a notoriously weak prep and he couldn't get it done against better stock in the Risen Star and Remsen. Figuring he is good for a minor share though.


The probable pace here points to weak early speed and the winner coming from off the pace. I am not looking at a closer, but if Mo Donegal and Zandon can get a perfect trip they will have a shot to upset the apple cart. I am looking to beat the favorite as Taiba ran a huge race and should step forward here. 

Sit back and enjoy this race, my focus is already two weeks out at Pimlico for the Preakness!




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