Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Preakness 2022

 No Triple Crown this year. Rethink the Triple Crown. The races are too long.

This porridge is too cold, this porridge is too hot... 

Give someone a reason and they'll complain about anything. Rich Strike had the race of a lifetime for connections you have never heard of (and may never hear from again).  I trust the horsemen to do what is right for their horse. I also don't think we need to rethink the Triple Crown. 

More rest, shorter distances? 

Why?

It is HARD to win the Triple Crown, as it should be. That is what makes it special and rare.

Enough of you hearing me roll my eyes from NJ every time someone decides that the Triple Crown needs to change...

On to the matter at hand. Preakness 2022.

I ran the pace a couple of ways and ended up with two possible outcomes (other than chaos - a.k.a. something goes amuck that throws off the race entirely). An off the pace horse should win with a 65% likelihood and a front running winner is a 25% likelihood.

Quick and dirty of how I see it setting up. Fenwick, Early Voting, and Armagnac set the pace. I figure an opening half mile in about 47.0s (plus or minus a tick). The second call should be in about 1:11.2s but by then the off the pace horses will make their move. The strongest of the group is Epicenter who should get a good trip being outside of the speed and the habitually slow breaking Happy Jack (now with blinkers)!

I see the chance that Secret Oath takes a step forward and has a shot at a late run here as well.

In my secondary pace scenario, Early Voting is the most likely front runner to get loose on the lead and set a more comfortable pace (47.2s / 1:12.0s). In that scenario he could take this field wire to wire. This would require the other two front runners to fail to challenge. While possible, not the most probable outcome.

As always, I reserve a 10% likelihood for the unexpected. It could be a troubled trip or a stalker that goes out and sets the pace with blazing fractions.

My top contenders (I feel the top three have the best chance at the winner's circle):

8 Epicenter 6-5

5 Early Voting 7-2

4 Secret Oath 9-2

9 Skippylongstocking 20-1


There is clearly a divide in class in this field, but I think Skippylongstocking is the best of the rest and an find his way onto exotic tickets.

As for betting, this race hits none of my metrics so I will be looking for a six pack of Natty Boh (National Bohemian Beer) to drink instead of a Black Eyed Susan. 

Good luck!

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