Thursday, May 18, 2017

The Curse is Lifted! 2017 Preakness Analysis!

There have been some pretty epic sports curses. Whether it was the Cubs or the Boston Red Sox, it seems that these curses are eventually lifted. Both Boston and Chicago have gone on to finally win a World Series. As luck would have it, my mini-Kentucky Derby curse has also been lifted thanks to Always Dreaming and a pace that set up pretty darn close to as predicted (click here to see my Derby pace video).

Last week, I played "Mythbusters" with the Preakness. Click here to check that article out!

Rather than get into great detail on the pace of this race, you can see my pace analysis video exclusively at US Racing which will be up soon! (This is my author link, all of my work for US Racing is compiled here).

So let’s get down to business. Above are my Pace Based Speed Ratings (PBSR) for this field as well as my take on the pace of each horse.

4 Always Dreaming (4-5) – Went off as the favorite and won the Kentucky Derby with a clean trip. The pace set up perfectly for him as State of Honor ran right out to the front. I expect Conquest Mo Money to do the same thing here to set a favorable pace. This colt has shown he can run on the front, come from off the pace, and handle the fractions that he has seen. Always Dreaming is in top form and will be tough to beat here.

5 Classic Empire (3-1) – He was roughed up a bit early in the Kentucky Derby, but I am not sure that a clean trip would have gotten him the win. Once again the pace is favorable, so figure he been a factor late.

1 Multiplier (30-1) – Owns the top Pace Based Speed Rating in this group, but will not have the likely early pace in his favor. I expect a slight bounce downwards here from him, but he should be good enough to add value to your exotics.

 9 Lookin At Lee (10-1) – I underestimated him going into the Kentucky Derby. Yet despite a clean trip, he wasn’t going to catch Always Dreaming two weeks ago. He has a big late move, but I still don’t think it is enough for him to win. He is more likely to add some value to the bottom of a chalky ticket.

Potential for Value:  Moderate (you’ll have to do that on the bottoms of your tickets)
Confidence:  Low (My most probable pace scenario is only at 50% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Small Exacta – 4 with 1, 5, 6, 9
Small Trifecta – 4 with 1, 5, 6, 9 with 1, 5, 6, 9
Small Superfecta  Box  1, 4, 5, 9

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back, enjoy a Black-Eyed Susan, and enjoy the race!

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