Saturday, January 26, 2013

Sick as a Cat... (Preview of the Sweetest Chant)

I always wondered why people say that they are as sick as a dog when, in my case yesterday, I was more sick like a cat - 18 hours in bed with randomly getting up to go to another room.  Regardless, stomach virus mostly out of the system, I can resume my handicapping...

After missing a chance to thoroughly review all of the great preps and action for Saturday, I turn my weekly race analysis to Gulfstream for Sunday for the 10th Race - The Sweetest Chant Stakes for 3 year old fillies at 1 mile over the turf.

1 Leinan (6-1) - stretches out back on the turf off of a long layoff where she last won a minor stakes over the all weather surface at Woodbine.  Decent works leading up to this race, but inclined to think that the early pace will be too highly contested and she will likely be a part of that duel up front early.  Outside chance.

2 Jadira (5-1) - Impressively won her debut over this course at a price with two decent conditioning works since.  She steps right into stakes competition here, but this field is not that strong... willing to give her a pass for only have her maiden win to speak of; look for a late run out of her today.  Contender.

3 Discreet Marq (5-1) - stakes winner over the Aqueduct turf in the fall, but looses Trujillo to #6 here.  She does have a solid turf pedigree, but will likely end up in a battle for the lead early and be short late.

4 Caroline Thomas (6-1) - Lose Castellano to #5 after breaking her maiden and passing the N1X condition last out.  Her works are sharp and pedigree is one of the best in the field and has the best closing kick of the late runners in this field.  Contender.

5 Premier Steps (5-2) - deserving favorite makes her 3 year old debut after a troubled trip in her US debut last out.  Graded stakes placed in Europe as a 2 year old and showed a lot of heart trying to make up ground late in last at Hollywood.  A clean trip gets her a win here.

6 Mystic Love (7-2) - beat the boys last out, but with a weak pace.  Look for a bounce downwards here and trouble with a slightly faster and tougher pace.

7 I O Ireland (15-1) - pace was too fast for her last out; expect the same sort of pace here today.  Pass.

8 Heading to Toga (10-1) - Showed nothing in her last two efforts over the turf after beating state-breds at the Spa last August.  Expect her to be sent early and get used on the pace.

The race seems to set up best for the late runners - 2 Jadira, 4 Caroline Thomas, and 5 Premier Steps.  Early speed will likely burn itself out here as 1 Leinan, 3 Discreet Marq, and 8 Heading to Toga will likely lock up early. 

Likely bets:  Ex Box 2,4,5

Good luck all!

1 comment:

  1. 5 Premier Steps comes from off the pace as it was 6 Mystic Love that put the pressure on the front running 3 Discreet Marq. 4 Caroline Thomas also closed late, just missing the place.

    2 Jadira and 8 Heading to Toga both scratched.