Saturday, January 12, 2013

Preview of the Hal's Hope G3 and other thoughts...

Mucho Mas Macho!!!  Fifty Proof did exactly what I thought he would do... for most of the race anyway...  I went against Mucho Mas Macho thinking that the big closer would not fare well with the speed here and that the track was biased against him...  couldn't have been any further from the truth today...

On a positive note, it turned out to be a pretty decent Saturday after all.  After reviewing the Aqueduct scratches, I found the late Pick 4 playable.  While time (and life) did not permit any kind of analysis here, I did tweet out my play.  72 combinations (R6 - 4,10,13,14 // 6,9 // 2,3,5 // 2,3,9) which for a $2 ticket returned $569.00. 

On to Sunday's Brisnet Race of the Day....

Gulfstream - Race 10 - 1mi - Hal's Hope S. G3 - 4yo&up

1 Swagger Jack (15-1) - Speedster is outclassed here.  He does figure to be near the lead early, but I don't see him handling the pressure well.  PASS.

2 Associate (6-1) - He made one heck of a run in the Bold Ruler up at Belmont, but this former $35k claimer will likely find the fast pace too much to overcome here.  Could be around late for a minor share.

3 Good Morning Diva (20-1) - Not his preferred distance at one-turn.  PASS.

4 Soldat (6-1) - Fountain of Youth winner over this course two years ago, but 'what have you done for me lately'?  Not inclined to think he does much here around one turn and he seems better suited for the turf.  PASS.

5 Delegation (4-1) - Is in good form here and will benefit from the one turn mile.  He shows a solid work pattern and can duel after running respectably with older horses as a 3 year old.  I like his chances on the front or just off the pace.

6 Csaba (5-2) - Not sure how well he will like one turn, but does have the class to hang here.  He did win big in open stakes company last out and a bounce may be coming here.

7 Scatman (6-1) - He was forwardly placed as a 3 year old, but did clear the N3X condition last fall against older horses.  Last out may have been due to the fact that he likes one turn, however the probably pace seems a little too fast for him here.

8 Cool Blue Red Hot (20-1) - Did run well in this race last year at a price, however nothing since.  Seemed outclassed then, seems outclassed now.  PASS.

9 Pants on Fire (5-1) - Did win an optional claimer over this course at this distance with a solid resume of open and graded stakes, however likely falls victim to a hot pace here. 

10 Pool Play (15-1) - Double the distance and I'll give this marathoner a look.  PASS.

I expect to see 5 Delegation contend with the early pace here, possibly set weakly by 1 Swagger Jack or 7 Scatman.  6 Csaba and 9 Pants on Fire will probably try to make a move late, but 5 Delegation should have enough left to hold them off late.

Probable Plays:  WP5; Ex 5,6 with 2,5,6,9
Confidence:  2 of 5 - The one turn mile is a quirky distance at times, pace profiles don't always translate well from two turn races or shorter sprints.

Good luck all!

1 comment:

  1. Csaba came from off the pace to win it with a solid closing effort from Pool Play. The early pace was highly contested as expected, but Delegation got used up before the stretch with some hot fractions.

    I'll be back later in the week with more analysis!