Wednesday, January 9, 2013

I Couldn't Lose Today!!!!

....and I couldn't win either!!!   Day One saw Beulah get rained out after Race 1.  I guess that is like getting a pardon from the governor!

 Day two of posting analysis of the Brisnet Race of the Day Contest again has me leaving my ‘comfort zone’, well not really…  Since there is a likely 2 to 3 inches of rain that will fall tomorrow in advance of this race, I am going to assume that it will be taken off the turf.  Traditionally I have tried to avoid turf races as much as I try to avoid Beulah Park, but when they come off the turf, it is usually an entirely different race.

Fair Grounds – Race 8 – 5-1/2f (Scheduled for the turf, but we’ll assume it is going to the main track) – AlwN1X for F&M 4 yo&up

 1 Just Say Hey (8-1) – lone non-turf sprint start was at Keeneland versus 15k maiden claimers, pace will likely be too fast for her to put together a late run here. 

2 Scarlet Tribute (8-1) – 6 year old mare has been knocking around this level for a while but has not made it over the hump yet.  She has been forwardly placed of late at the statebred level with signs of deteriorating form, but she is not too likely to move forward here.

3 Great Bluff (20-1) – makes a big step up off of the claim and a long layoff.  Outclassed and not well suited in this spot.  PASS.

4 Divine Providence (5-1) – Fired off the shelf against statebreds two back (placed second by DQ); came back strong last out after losing the whip late.  Goes back to a more comfortable 5-1/2f here and could get loose on the lead, otherwise she should be able to duel and hold on.  Breeding doesn’t necessarily suggest handling the slop, but early speed should govern.  Top choice.

5 Jealousofmyboogie (7-2) – Lightly raced and off of a long layoff with a decent work pattern.  Likely pace may be a bit too fast of they elect to run her over the main track.  Contender if she does run.

6 Wild Dixie (20-1) – may flash some early speed before tiring; not likely enough to upset #4 here.  PASS.

7 Dixie Dreamin (12-1) – two flat efforts at Mountaineer after some lukewarm efforts over the all weather track at Presque Isle – not likely to have enough late kick here.

8 Deferred (9-2) – won for fun in debut versus 30k stock at Hoosier in the slop.  Pace will be faster and will not allow her to get loose on the lead.

9 Minestrone (4-1) – Lone dirt effort was fairly solid a year ago at Gulfstream.  Long layoff before last subpar effort followed by another two months off  with a mediocre work tab lead me to think that she will need a race before she is ready to contend.

10 French Breeze (10-1) – has shown nothing lately.  PASS.

AE11 Wire Me Bessie (8-1) – failed in a duel last race over 6 months ago.  She shows two solid works leading up to this race and has raced well against open stakes company as a 3 year old.  She will likely need to get loose, but likely locks up with #4 if she runs, not sure she will be able to hold on.

AE12 Sunlight Cat (8-1) – may have topped out in the claiming ranks.  PASS.

MTO13 Fontanne (6-1) – flashed some early speed before going on the shelf for the last 5 months, while regular, her works are not impressive.  PASS,

MTO14 Totally Tucker (5-1) – overcame a rough start last out to manage second, expect her to be closer to the pace here and will likely be around if the early pace fails.

MTO15 Urbanini (6-1) – Big closing move two back to break her maiden, however she’ll be outclassed with this group.

Opinion – hard to say with the likely scratches and changes; but I would lean towards a front running effort by #4 Divine Providence. 
No tentative bets with too many likely changes.
Confidence – 1 of 5 – would need to reassess after the changes are announced.

I often find it difficult to remain focused on handicapping races that offer a number of Also-Eligibles, Main Track Only Entries, and are questionable with the weather.  I find that I am more inclined, in some cases, to completely dismiss the AE’s chances.  This is one area where I know I need to change my attitude.  I think you need to almost treat the race as if all of the entries will run and back off of that approach and pace.  Hopefully, my assessment of the weather in New Orleans is correct, since I wasn’t too excited about this race over the turf, on the other hand, maybe I’ll be 2-for-2 on rain outs!

You may wonder why I am doing this, since I could be selecting any track or race I want, especially those I feel confident with…  honestly, it forces me to look at races more like a ‘mandatory’ contest and it also forces me to think about each horse as I write some analysis.  I am trying to retrain my brain to get back into my old routine (future blogpost) and not miss the obvious (again and again).

Good luck all!

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