Sick as a Cat... (Preview of the Sweetest Chant)

I always wondered why people say that they are as sick as a dog when, in my case yesterday, I was more sick like a cat - 18 hours in bed with randomly getting up to go to another room.  Regardless, stomach virus mostly out of the system, I can resume my handicapping...

After missing a chance to thoroughly review all of the great preps and action for Saturday, I turn my weekly race analysis to Gulfstream for Sunday for the 10th Race - The Sweetest Chant Stakes for 3 year old fillies at 1 mile over the turf.

1 Leinan (6-1) - stretches out back on the turf off of a long layoff where she last won a minor stakes over the all weather surface at Woodbine.  Decent works leading up to this race, but inclined to think that the early pace will be too highly contested and she will likely be a part of that duel up front early.  Outside chance.

2 Jadira (5-1) - Impressively won her debut over this course at a price with two decent conditioning works since.  She steps right into stakes competition here, but this field is not that strong... willing to give her a pass for only have her maiden win to speak of; look for a late run out of her today.  Contender.

3 Discreet Marq (5-1) - stakes winner over the Aqueduct turf in the fall, but looses Trujillo to #6 here.  She does have a solid turf pedigree, but will likely end up in a battle for the lead early and be short late.

4 Caroline Thomas (6-1) - Lose Castellano to #5 after breaking her maiden and passing the N1X condition last out.  Her works are sharp and pedigree is one of the best in the field and has the best closing kick of the late runners in this field.  Contender.

5 Premier Steps (5-2) - deserving favorite makes her 3 year old debut after a troubled trip in her US debut last out.  Graded stakes placed in Europe as a 2 year old and showed a lot of heart trying to make up ground late in last at Hollywood.  A clean trip gets her a win here.

6 Mystic Love (7-2) - beat the boys last out, but with a weak pace.  Look for a bounce downwards here and trouble with a slightly faster and tougher pace.

7 I O Ireland (15-1) - pace was too fast for her last out; expect the same sort of pace here today.  Pass.

8 Heading to Toga (10-1) - Showed nothing in her last two efforts over the turf after beating state-breds at the Spa last August.  Expect her to be sent early and get used on the pace.

The race seems to set up best for the late runners - 2 Jadira, 4 Caroline Thomas, and 5 Premier Steps.  Early speed will likely burn itself out here as 1 Leinan, 3 Discreet Marq, and 8 Heading to Toga will likely lock up early. 

Likely bets:  Ex Box 2,4,5

Good luck all!

The Journey to Victory (and the Kittens Joy Stakes Preview)

"A mind focused on fear and doubt cannot focus on the journey to victory." - Mike Jones

The Palos Verdes started to set up like I thought with Comma To The Top and Private Zone getting out to the lead early - that's about where my pace model stopped working.  Instead of Comma To The Top besting Private Zone; it was vice versa...  The outclassed closer I had dismissed (but NJHorseplayer hadn't), took advantage of some torrid fractions (21.3 and 43.3) and returning a handsome $45.20/$14.40/$5.00. 

I guess the question in my head is now not when you can predict a duel, but when can you predict that a speed duel will go faster than a horse's "comfort zone"?  Had the pace been a little slower (say 2C in 44.3?), would Comma To The Top benefited versus a pure front runner in Private Zone?

Sunday finds me again chasing my aversions and landing on an open stakes race for 3 year old fillies on the turf.  Generally, I prefer dirt sprints, yet have had some of my larger (value) scores on the turf.  My enthusiasm for turf races, especially younger horses, tend to be minimal since there are generally few relevant running lines for comparison and many questions linger (at least for me) regarding the current form of a dirt to turf or all-weather to turf move.  Class tends to be a bit of an anomaly to me as well, since claiming prices on the turf don't always relate well to the dirt, when was the last time you saw a $5k turf maiden claimer?

Gulfstream Race 10 - Kittens Joy Stakes - 1-1/16mi TURF - 3yo

1 Saturday Special (15-1) - had a decent stalking effort over this course last out, however the probable pace seems to work against him here - did clear the N1X hurdle in the slop two back, however being offered up for a price last out doesn't bode well here.  Look for him to make a late run, but be short at the wire.

2 Summit County (6-1) - cleared the N1X condition last out with a nice stalking trip and has been forwardly placed as a 2 year old having set the early pace in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf before weakening.  Look for another late run here, but expect that the early pace doesn't set up to leave him too much time to run late. 

3 Redwood Kitten (15-1) - needed to be stretched out last race, but will not get loose on the lead like that here.  He will likely blast to the lead early and fold under the pressure.

4 Charming Kitten (2-1) - is a very deserving favorite here.  Toss his troubled trip over the polytrack at Keeneland and he has chased some solid competition over the turf at Saratoga and last out over this course.  Connections are as solid as they come, he is a serious contender here today - but the value may not be there.

5 Fire Guard (3-1) - won his maiden going wire to wire last out, however will not likely get that easy of a trip here.  Look for him to lock up early with 3 Redwood Kitten and be short late.

6 Prado Cat (12-1) - also took his maiden last out going wire to wire after a nice pressing effort with a little trouble the race prior.  He will likely be making a move late and can not be discounted here.

7 Bambazonki (6-1) - easily cleared the N2L test last out showing that he could not only take the front but duel as well.  The pace will be a little quicker here and am not inclined to think that he will have the energy late.

8 Flying Bird (4-1) - made a big move last out to clear the N1X condition after a two month layoff.  His versatility to handle a quicker or slower pace will be key here as he tests the stakes level.  Serious contender.

Bets:  WP8; Ex 4,8 with 1,2,4,6,8
Confidence: 2 of 5 - young 3 year olds that are still developing and finding their form; many have already shown a preference for the footing and the pace is always a huge variable with this age group.

Good luck all!

All Things are Difficult Before They are Easy (and thoughts on the Palos Verdes G2)

“All things are difficult before they are easy” – Thomas Fuller

Time to start facing my ‘handicapping fears’.  Alright, not really fears but aversions.  One race type I usually dread is graded stakes for older horses.  In keeping with my resolutions and needing to broaden my potential plays in any contest (mandatory or open selections), I am facing my fears/aversions head on this year, so I will be deviating from the Brisnet Race of the Day and going with a race I would normally shrug, roll my eyes, and pass over…

Saturday 1/19 – Santa Anita Race 5 – Palos Verdes Stakes G2 – 4yo&up (one of the featured races in the Public Handicapper Contest this week)

1 Apriority (8-1) – last won a G3 effort as a 4 year old at Gulfstream after a poor start.  His 2012 campaign was lackluster, but the switch to Baffert’s barn may be a reason to take notice.  Late works are sharp, but inclined to pass on a horse that has already likely peaked and will be working against the track bias and a hot early pace.

2 Drill (4-1) – was a G1 winner versus 2 year olds at Del Mar and a G2 winner over this course against 3 year olds in the San Vincente last year and is the other Baffert entry.  He had a rough trip last out in the Malibu versus 3 year olds and didn’t get much support in that effort either.  Hard to back here without seeing any marked improvement or tests against older horses.

3 Canonize (5-1) – minor stakes winner on the dirt course here around two turns (4 of 6 lifetime at Santa Anita, however three of those efforts were over the polytrack).  He seems to be a bit outclassed and likely will have a hard time overcoming the fast pace anticipated here. 

4 Sahara Sky (12-1) – has cleared the N2X condition and has not shown much in his lone stakes effort.  Pass.

5 Comma To The Top (3-1) – has shown some versatility over his career – routes, sprints, dirt, turf, polytrack; having won a couple of restricted stakes last year and a G3 over this course.  Connections are not that strong, but the horse should make up for that (Miller wins 6% of graded stakes races he enters).  He appears to be in to form and should have a relatively easy time getting loose on the lead here or rating off of a quick burst from another.  I like the chances of him going wire to wire or dueling a weaker foe here.

6 Private Zone (5-2) – Grade 1 winner in Panama, yet that has not equated to victory here in the US.  Solid runner up efforts in his last four stakes efforts, even against older at Hollywood Park two back.  He has the need to be loose and clear on the lead which may be asking too much of him here.  Look for him to challenge Comma To The Top but be short late.

7 Justin Phillip (7-2) – was forwardly placed as a 4 year old, but couldn’t win anything other than a N3X optional claimer.  Appears outclassed and the pace seems a little too hot for him to handle here, but will likely be making a run late.

So here is how I see this race breaking down.  At the break, 5 and 6 rush up to the lead, 6 will try to establish himself early with 5 right off the pace.  By the top of the stretch, I would expect 5 to be overtaking the 6 or staring his rally with 6 fading.  Look for a late run led by 1 and 7 with 3 following along.  At the wire it is 5 with 7 and 1.

Likely bets:  W5; Ex 5,7 with 1,3,5,7

Confidence:  3 of 5 – pace seems to set up well, class appears to be fairly well delineated

Good luck all!

Preview of the Hal's Hope G3 and other thoughts...

Mucho Mas Macho!!!  Fifty Proof did exactly what I thought he would do... for most of the race anyway...  I went against Mucho Mas Macho thinking that the big closer would not fare well with the speed here and that the track was biased against him...  couldn't have been any further from the truth today...

On a positive note, it turned out to be a pretty decent Saturday after all.  After reviewing the Aqueduct scratches, I found the late Pick 4 playable.  While time (and life) did not permit any kind of analysis here, I did tweet out my play.  72 combinations (R6 - 4,10,13,14 // 6,9 // 2,3,5 // 2,3,9) which for a $2 ticket returned $569.00. 

On to Sunday's Brisnet Race of the Day....

Gulfstream - Race 10 - 1mi - Hal's Hope S. G3 - 4yo&up

1 Swagger Jack (15-1) - Speedster is outclassed here.  He does figure to be near the lead early, but I don't see him handling the pressure well.  PASS.

2 Associate (6-1) - He made one heck of a run in the Bold Ruler up at Belmont, but this former $35k claimer will likely find the fast pace too much to overcome here.  Could be around late for a minor share.

3 Good Morning Diva (20-1) - Not his preferred distance at one-turn.  PASS.

4 Soldat (6-1) - Fountain of Youth winner over this course two years ago, but 'what have you done for me lately'?  Not inclined to think he does much here around one turn and he seems better suited for the turf.  PASS.

5 Delegation (4-1) - Is in good form here and will benefit from the one turn mile.  He shows a solid work pattern and can duel after running respectably with older horses as a 3 year old.  I like his chances on the front or just off the pace.

6 Csaba (5-2) - Not sure how well he will like one turn, but does have the class to hang here.  He did win big in open stakes company last out and a bounce may be coming here.

7 Scatman (6-1) - He was forwardly placed as a 3 year old, but did clear the N3X condition last fall against older horses.  Last out may have been due to the fact that he likes one turn, however the probably pace seems a little too fast for him here.

8 Cool Blue Red Hot (20-1) - Did run well in this race last year at a price, however nothing since.  Seemed outclassed then, seems outclassed now.  PASS.

9 Pants on Fire (5-1) - Did win an optional claimer over this course at this distance with a solid resume of open and graded stakes, however likely falls victim to a hot pace here. 

10 Pool Play (15-1) - Double the distance and I'll give this marathoner a look.  PASS.

I expect to see 5 Delegation contend with the early pace here, possibly set weakly by 1 Swagger Jack or 7 Scatman.  6 Csaba and 9 Pants on Fire will probably try to make a move late, but 5 Delegation should have enough left to hold them off late.

Probable Plays:  WP5; Ex 5,6 with 2,5,6,9
Confidence:  2 of 5 - The one turn mile is a quirky distance at times, pace profiles don't always translate well from two turn races or shorter sprints.

Good luck all!

Preview of the Ft. Lauderdale G2 (and Other Ramblings)

Recap of Friday's 7th at the Fair Grounds:

As expected, the race was taken off the turf.  The pace did set up as expected, the early speed did not hold up and the winner came from off the pace.  When you have a race down to a 50/50 choice, you have an 80% chance of being wrong.... My top choice based in value didn't fire, but my secondary selection (Make a Fortune) made a solid late run to win as the 2-1 favorite.

Saturday takes us east - to Gulfstream (and some better weather!)

Race 10 - 1-1/16 mi Turf - Ft. Lauderdale Stakes G2 - 4yo&up

1 Vertiformer (12-1) - runner up in the McKnight G2 at Calder in a marathon; otherwise not much else impresses here - PASS

2 Nikki's Sandcastle (5-1) - former claimer that won two open stakes over this course and has been close up over the polytrack at Keeneland in the Fayette - will need to run the race of his life to win here, but certainly will be a factor late trying to close.

3 Fifty Proof (6-1) - came back off of a long layoff last out to take a restricted stakes north of the border. G3 winner and G2 contender in the past shows a decent set of works and is likely to improve and be near the lead the entire way.

4 Dominus (3-1) - solid turf pedigree and only two turf starts, including a G2 win at Saratoga.  Formidable favorite here and can fire off the shelf.  Definite contender.

5 Hollinger (4-1) - Forwardly placed over the last year but "always a bridesmaid, never a bride"... did get the place in this race last year via DQ at a nice price - wouldn't be surprised if he gets up for show here.

6 Quick Wit (20-1) - Outclassed, poor recent form, and never shown dominance over the turf - PASS

7 Sky Blazer (10-1) - Has cleared the N3X condition, but has struggled at this level.  He does like this surface, but he is outclassed again here.  PASS.

8 Big Blue Kitten (6-1) - This former claimer was shipped overseas for a G1 at Ascot, however seems outclassed again here.  PASS.

9 Mucho Mas Macho (20-1) - Outclassed and would need to make a big run late; bias here works against this one...  PASS.

10 Tiz Sardonic Joe (12-1) - Just cleared the N2X condition with a mediocre closing effort against open stakes company at the Spa.  Decent pedigree, but has not proven he belongs at this level.  PASS.

11 Empire Builder (15-1) - Forwardly placed with decent showings in open company stakes, however is outclassed at this level and will be flat late.  PASS.

MTO12 Pants on Fire (5-2) - Will Scratch.

The pace seems to set up well for #3 Fifty Proof who has proven he can take it wire to wire, duel, or press over his career.  He seems to be the class of the field and did win easily in first off the layoff of over 17 months - look for an improved effort here.

Probable Plays:  WP3; Ex 3,4 - 2,3,4,5,11
Confidence: 3 of 5 - Class and pace seem to be pretty well defined here

Good luck all!

A Tale of Two Cities

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.” – Charles Dickens

For the Brisnet ‘Race of the Day’ Contest, I guess we’ll pass on the former and go with the latter on Grove City (Beulah) and New Orleans (Fair Grounds) as there have been two successive days of cancellations, making it the age of foolishness, epoch of incredulity, the season of Darkness, and the winter of despair with nothing in front of us (I’ll pass on speculation on where I am directly going)!   I do seriously wonder if the folks who select the races for these contests actually check the weather first.  It does remind me of a NHC freebie event over a year ago where they had included the Fair Grounds with a nasty weather forecast and the last 3 legs (of the 4 legs carded from FG) were cancelled due to weather – poor planning.  Granted not as much is riding on the line here, but on a positive note I have worked out a few glitches with my blog formatting.

Back to the Fair Grounds for Friday’s Contest Race – again originally slated for the turf, but I’ll figure this one over the main track.

Friday 1/11 - FG – Race 7 – AlwN1X – 4yo&up – 5-1/2f (originally scheduled for the turf)

1 Bravo Habibi (5-2) – he has been knocking around with higher priced claimers with moderate success, however I see him getting caught up in a speed duel on the frontend and not having much left late.

2 Purgenality (12-1) – Unsuccessful in advancing from this condition, should run if this comes off the turf.  Big effort in the slop at Ellis seems to be a bit of a fluke, not likely here.

3 Royal Production (6-1) – Will show some early speed and tire by the stretch, not likely to hang on long enough to hit the board.  May be a negative factor on the early pace.  PASS.

4 Ali Maccool (8-1) – Late bloomer as a 4yo who didn’t hit the track until November.   Last race was a solid pressing effort and does show a couple of solid works since.  Breeding suggest some ability over an off track.  Definite contender as the early speed will be challenged here and likely fail.

5 Make A Fortune (9-5) – has two solid polytrack efforts to his credit and will be looking to make a big late run here.  Definite contender.

6 Alumni (8-1) – outclassed as he switches back to the dirt.

7 Harbor Junior (10-1) – needs to be loose on the lead, not likely to get that here as he figures to try to be part of the early pace and fades away.

8 Darkness Love (10-1) – outclassed.  PASS.

9 Hudson’s Creed (8-1) – outclassed speedster who likes to be loose on the lead.  PASS.

This race looks to set up with a lot of early speed battling it out early.  The winner is likely to come from just off the pace of make a closing move late.  The horses that fit this style are 2, 4, 5, & 8.  8 appears to be outclassed and 2 does not seem likely.  Of the remaining two selections, I am going to go with the likely value on #4 Ali Maccool to sit right off the pace and be around late. 

Probable plays:  WP4; Ex 4,5 with 1,4,5
Confidence:  Assuming there aren’t too many important scratches here, 3 of 5.  Pace and class appear to be fairly apparent and most of the field looks likely to remain despite the surface switch.

Good luck all!

I Couldn't Lose Today!!!!

....and I couldn't win either!!!   Day One saw Beulah get rained out after Race 1.  I guess that is like getting a pardon from the governor!

 Day two of posting analysis of the Brisnet Race of the Day Contest again has me leaving my ‘comfort zone’, well not really…  Since there is a likely 2 to 3 inches of rain that will fall tomorrow in advance of this race, I am going to assume that it will be taken off the turf.  Traditionally I have tried to avoid turf races as much as I try to avoid Beulah Park, but when they come off the turf, it is usually an entirely different race.

Fair Grounds – Race 8 – 5-1/2f (Scheduled for the turf, but we’ll assume it is going to the main track) – AlwN1X for F&M 4 yo&up

 1 Just Say Hey (8-1) – lone non-turf sprint start was at Keeneland versus 15k maiden claimers, pace will likely be too fast for her to put together a late run here. 

2 Scarlet Tribute (8-1) – 6 year old mare has been knocking around this level for a while but has not made it over the hump yet.  She has been forwardly placed of late at the statebred level with signs of deteriorating form, but she is not too likely to move forward here.

3 Great Bluff (20-1) – makes a big step up off of the claim and a long layoff.  Outclassed and not well suited in this spot.  PASS.

4 Divine Providence (5-1) – Fired off the shelf against statebreds two back (placed second by DQ); came back strong last out after losing the whip late.  Goes back to a more comfortable 5-1/2f here and could get loose on the lead, otherwise she should be able to duel and hold on.  Breeding doesn’t necessarily suggest handling the slop, but early speed should govern.  Top choice.

5 Jealousofmyboogie (7-2) – Lightly raced and off of a long layoff with a decent work pattern.  Likely pace may be a bit too fast of they elect to run her over the main track.  Contender if she does run.

6 Wild Dixie (20-1) – may flash some early speed before tiring; not likely enough to upset #4 here.  PASS.

7 Dixie Dreamin (12-1) – two flat efforts at Mountaineer after some lukewarm efforts over the all weather track at Presque Isle – not likely to have enough late kick here.

8 Deferred (9-2) – won for fun in debut versus 30k stock at Hoosier in the slop.  Pace will be faster and will not allow her to get loose on the lead.

9 Minestrone (4-1) – Lone dirt effort was fairly solid a year ago at Gulfstream.  Long layoff before last subpar effort followed by another two months off  with a mediocre work tab lead me to think that she will need a race before she is ready to contend.

10 French Breeze (10-1) – has shown nothing lately.  PASS.

AE11 Wire Me Bessie (8-1) – failed in a duel last race over 6 months ago.  She shows two solid works leading up to this race and has raced well against open stakes company as a 3 year old.  She will likely need to get loose, but likely locks up with #4 if she runs, not sure she will be able to hold on.

AE12 Sunlight Cat (8-1) – may have topped out in the claiming ranks.  PASS.

MTO13 Fontanne (6-1) – flashed some early speed before going on the shelf for the last 5 months, while regular, her works are not impressive.  PASS,

MTO14 Totally Tucker (5-1) – overcame a rough start last out to manage second, expect her to be closer to the pace here and will likely be around if the early pace fails.

MTO15 Urbanini (6-1) – Big closing move two back to break her maiden, however she’ll be outclassed with this group.

Opinion – hard to say with the likely scratches and changes; but I would lean towards a front running effort by #4 Divine Providence. 

No tentative bets with too many likely changes.
Confidence – 1 of 5 – would need to reassess after the changes are announced.

I often find it difficult to remain focused on handicapping races that offer a number of Also-Eligibles, Main Track Only Entries, and are questionable with the weather.  I find that I am more inclined, in some cases, to completely dismiss the AE’s chances.  This is one area where I know I need to change my attitude.  I think you need to almost treat the race as if all of the entries will run and back off of that approach and pace.  Hopefully, my assessment of the weather in New Orleans is correct, since I wasn’t too excited about this race over the turf, on the other hand, maybe I’ll be 2-for-2 on rain outs!

You may wonder why I am doing this, since I could be selecting any track or race I want, especially those I feel confident with…  honestly, it forces me to look at races more like a ‘mandatory’ contest and it also forces me to think about each horse as I write some analysis.  I am trying to retrain my brain to get back into my old routine (future blogpost) and not miss the obvious (again and again).

Good luck all!

Blinkers On!

So far a week into the year, I am already failing at one of my racing resolutions - posting and blogging more often.  Time to put the 'blinkers on' and get focused.  While scouring Brisnet for my Thursday track to handicap, I noticed a 'Race of the Day Contest'.  What the heck, maybe I should use the Brisnet race of the day as a reason to try to win a trip to see the Derby and it would give me a good reason to post more often...  so here it goes.

Beulah - Race 6 - 6f - Statebred AlwN1X for 3yo& up

Naturally, this is a track I generally pass over since I have found the pace tough to assess with the large variance on second call times (versus my pars) for comparison, but here is what I came up with:

1 Perfect Groom (5-2) - weaker part of the entry; broke maiden almost a year ago and while you can excuse a poor effort at two turns over a muddy track last out, this one was slow to leave the gate two back and shows no encouraging works... pass if this is the part of entry to run.

1A Phil's Boy (5-2) - stronger part of the entry boasting a 1 of 19 lifetime mark, 0-fer-ever at this level and from the looks of it will contest the pace early before fading and likely finishing in the money... worth a look if #5 scratches

2 J Z Rib (20-1) - 1 of 18 lifetime, has comments on last three starts of 'Never a factor' and 'never close'... toss last two at two turns and you are still left with no real sense of form and trouble with one turn - PASS!

3 Threequarter Star (20-1) lifetime 1 of 27... has been a total of 6 horses in last 10 starts - not much to like here and will not likely even factor on the pace - PASS!

4 Classic Reward (2-1) - reasonable favorite here, however has been on the bench for about 6 weeks with no published workout; drops back to a statebred condition here, but has struggled beyond the statebred claiming ranks.  Big effort two back is atypical compared to this 6 year old's general form, however that effort is likely to burn some money at the window.  He will need a weak early pace to have a shot here.

5 Bajheera (6-1) - limited sprint experience, but has shown early speed in both, failing in open company, just missing against similar to today's field.  Even in failing route efforts, he shows early speed to the stretch before failing.  His last sprint at Thistledown had a hot second call of 44.4 (well beyond what he can handle) and the pace will be softer here.  Look for him to get loose early and very likely take this race wire to wire.

6 Door Athe Light (3-1) - been up close at this level recently, but seems to lack the final kick.  Pedigree does not suggest that he likes this level, but is the lone 4yo in the group so there is a chance for some improvement here, if the pace fails look for him to be making a late move.

7 Rambo Rib (5-1) - turns back off of a maiden win in the mud against open MSW horses.  At 7 years old, I don't expect to see much improvement here.

In conclusion, look for #5 Bajheera to try to go wire to wire on the lead, his chances improve if #1A Phil's Boy scratches.  As a back-up should #5 get challenged and fail, look for #6 Door Athe Light to make a late move.

Likely plays (pre-scratches and without seeing the tote board at 2 MTP): 
- WP5
- Ex 5,6 - 1/1A,4,5,6

Confidence Level:  2 of 5 - tough track to gauge speed (and I don't play it very often) - no real standouts, but there could be some decent value here.

Look for another post soon about establishing a good 'handicapping routine' so you don't miss the obvious (like I tend to do when I get in a rush!)

Good luck all!