"There's nothing wrong with being a loser, it just depends on how good you are at it." - Billie Joe Armstrong
My Derby drought continues as American Pharoah outran his pedigree and Firing Line battled his way into second to completely upend my exacta and trifecta tickets two weeks ago. My probable pace did not get hit (half mile was actually in 47.2; not the 46ish time I had anticipated) - maybe the scratch of Stanford, who I had thought would negatively impact the early pace, had something to do with that? Regardless, it is over and done... on to the Preakness.
At this point last year, I was hunting for reasons to play against California Chrome, which I did, only to go to the dreaded rail and select Dynamic Impact... not one of my better picks over the last year. This year, try as I might to find any reason to play against the heavy favorite, I have trouble doing that. Some will contend that the rail is suicide in the Preakness with only one winner from post 1 in the last 54 years, but then again there have been some pretty weak horses breaking from the rail. Others will tell you to throw out or downgrade the inside half of this eight horse field, which in this case, as I will explain in my probably pace, you can eliminate #2 Dortmund and #3 Mr Z; but not #1 American Pharoah and #4 Danzig Moon.
This race favors speed - not necessarily suggesting any one of these can take the field wire to wire, but that the winner will be tracking along close to the lead and be within the top four spots by the half mile call. Closers tend to fall short here as well.
So here are my thoughts on the 2015 Preakness:
#1 American Pharoah (4-5) - Having watched how he went W-I-D-E early at Churchill to get good position and had enough left in the tank to run down Firing Line late, shows me that his tactical speed is a huge advantage in this field. He has faced hot fractions in the Arkansas and relatively moderate fractions in the Derby and handled both well. Despite the dreaded rail, he is the one to beat and will be tracking off of what appears to be a weak early pace.
#7 Diving Rod (12-1) - On the upswing showing patience in the Lexington last month. He figures to be right on the tails of American Pharoah watching the early pace unfold and this son of Tapit can certainly get the distance. I expect a forward progression here, but just short of the effort that American Pharoah will display.
#4 Danzig Moon (15-1) - Troubled trip in the Derby and still managed fifth. Bluegrass effort prior saw a wide run for second from mid pack and he has yet to win around two turns. Needs to prove he can finish the race and the bias here doesn't help, but I expect him to be a factor late.
#2 Dortmund (7-2) - Will likely take the bait of the early blast from Mr. Z which will find him short of top honors again here, but much like the Derby, don't expect him to finish to far from the money. As I mentioned in the Derby blog two weeks ago, his optimal distance seems to be 9 furlongs, so expect another steady drive, just not enough late kick to make a difference.
My spoiler for exotics looks to be #5 Tale of Verve (30-1). The bias plays against him and it did take him six tries to break maiden. Closing run will be short, but I expect him to be gaining ground late and he could sneak into the trifecta, or more likely, the superfecta. #8 Firing Line (4-1) certainly made a heck of a run in the Derby, but I think he regresses here and may also be around for a minor share.
Pace: I expect #3 Mr Z to bolt right out to the lead, which he never got a chance to in the Derby as he was checked repeatedly. #2 Dortmund takes the bait and doesn't let him get loose. This sets up for American Pharoah, #7 Diving Rod, and #8 Firing Line to settle back between two and five lengths off the pace. #3 Mr Z drops out before the stretch and both American Pharoah and Diving Rod overtake Dortmund. Firing Line runs flat in the stretch while #4 Danzing Moon and #5 Tale of Verve make a late charge to hit the board with the edge to the former.
How would I bet this race?
No real value in playing American Pharoah to win, but I may go across the board on #7 Diving Rod and play a small trifecta with 1 and 7 on top, something along the lines of 1,7 / 1,4,7 / 1,2,4,5,7,8 ; or maybe a small superfecta along the same lines.
Good luck all!
Thursday, May 14, 2015
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Derby Deja-Vu (Plus Oaks Coverage Too!)
"It's like deja-vu, all over again." - Yogi Berra
Here we are approaching the first Saturday of May yet again. The band will play "My Old Kentucky Home" while folks sip mint juleps, and bet a ton of money all in the hopes of seeing the who will win the first leg of the elusive Triple Crown.
As I say every year at this time, the last Kentucky Derby winner that I picked was Smarty Jones in 2004. Last year, I let my stubbornness and ideals get in the way of a big Derby payday as I opted against playing my annual $1 superfecta box that would have returned over $7k (granted my college roommate Mike did make quite a score with a $1,700 trifecta and Commanding Curve).
So what makes this year different?
Nothing.
I've been generally absent from blogging as well as actually following the Derby trail - which is something I tell myself that I am going to do every year, but it never comes to fruition as evidenced by my abysmal performance in the Public Handicapper "PH Prep" contest and absence from the Monmouth SSC Qualifiers for the first time in 5 years. Some years the schedule just doesn't work out. If anything, I have probably done less handicapping so far this year than I have in other years - even on my bread and butter tracks but just enough to keep the rust off...
So here it goes - my analysis for the 2015 Kentucky Derby... let's hope for some deja-vu however, hitting the superfecta with some value horses would be nice... all over again!
Saturday 5/2 - Churchill Downs Race 11 - 1-1/4mi - Kentucky Derby G1
15 Frosted (15-1) - He certainly has the pedigree for the distance and after having some minor surgery for breathing problems, he came back and commandingly took the Wood over several of this field. I am willing to give him a pass on the Holy Bull (troubled trip) and the stretch drive of the Fountain of Youth (breathing issues). Normally I would be wary of a horse with breathing issues, but with the usual torrid pace that is expected here, I expect to see Rosario get him in a good spot early, avoid the tangled start we can all expect to see here from the frontrunners, and set him down for a big late run.
2 Carpe Diem (8-1) - Pedigree suggests he has the distance, but would be better suited for turf. Showed improvement pressing the pace in both the Tampa Derby and the Blue Grass with the lone blemish on his record being a loss to Texas Red in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last fall at 2 years old. Connections don't get much better than Pletcher/Velazquez who are firing at a 41% clip of late. I expect to see him hanging off the lead and also making a big late move.
18 American Pharoah (5-2) - Other than my spell check constantly trying to correct his name, he has passed every test so far. Pedigree is a little lacking on distance, suggesting he would be a good miler, so he has already outrun expectations (just like California Chrome last year). He likes the lead and showed he can hang back and stalk in the Arkansas Derby, but I think the distance is too much here and Baffert goes home empty handed again.
8 Dortmund (3-1) - Has yet to fail as has steadily shown improvement. Pedigree suggests 9 furlongs would be optimal. He coasted home with a slower stretch run in the Santa Anita Derby, but showed solid late running in both the San Felipe as well as the Robert B Lewis where he fought back gamely against Firing Line in a rematch of the tightly contested Los Alamitos Futurity. While I expect him to want the lead, he'll settle for being near it and will have a steady run down the stretch, yet I don't expect him to be making up much ground late.
Pace: I expect the first half mile to be in about 46, with 11 Stanford, 17 Mr. Z, and 8 Dortmund to be the closest to the front. 18 American Pharoah will be close up with that group. 3 Materiality will try to hang, but will be lacking by the turn. The closers kick in late, led by 15 Frosted and 2 Carpe Diem. 6 Mubtaahij is a mystery in this race, but the pace is likely too fast for him to be much of a factor late. 9 Bolo may bounce and be a factor late in exotics.
I'll throw my customary $1 Superfecta box in on 2, 8, 15, 18 and maybe a $.50 Trifecta Box on the same while enjoying a refreshing beverage from my couch!
BONUS COVERAGE: A few thoughts on Friday's Kentucky Oaks...
7 Lovely Maria (5-1) - This one has been on my radar for a while and I think she moves forward here. Toss the Trapeze effort in the mud and the Rachel Alexandra where Clark lost the whip late and she has shown good tactical speed with a nice pressing/stalking effort in the Ashland.
13 Birdatthewire (6-1) - Three straight troubled trips for her resulting in two wins at two turns and second by a neck in a one turn miler with figures that are deceptively good. Tough call making this one my second choice. Pedigree suggests that she is a miler, but I think with a contested pace here she makes a solid late run.
12 Stellar Wind (7-2) - She has the pedigree to go longer and is off of two solid efforts at Santa Anita. She should take a big step forward again here but I think her late pace isn't as strong as others.
8 I'm a Chatterbox (4-1) - Went wire to wire in her 3 year old debut and the showed a solid closing effort in the Rachel Alexandra, and then from just off the pace int he Fair Ground Oaks. She has good tactical speed and will be a factor late, but I think she is truly just a miler and has not had much adversity to contend with in her last three wins. Minor share only.
Pace - Hot early pace by 5 Condo Commando will set the tone for the late runners here, she won't get clear and will get spent early trying to maintain the fastest pace she will have ever tried to set around two turns. A lot of horses here with tactical speed and late runs. Will be an exciting finish. 3 Include Betty will be moving from W-A-Y back and could hit for a minor share. 2 Shook Up (30-1) was wide in her last two - a better trip gets her on the board as well.
Thinking maybe a superfecta or trifecta box here for fun as well.
Oaks/Derby Double: 7,13 with 2,15
With the shuttering of my favorite turf meet at Atlantic City Race Course, I turn my attention to Monmouth Park opening on May 9th. Only 5.4 miles door to door from the office, or as my co-worker Anthony noted, even less from his job site. I think some lazy Friday afternoons with a good cigar and a few beers are in order this summer!
Good luck all!
Here we are approaching the first Saturday of May yet again. The band will play "My Old Kentucky Home" while folks sip mint juleps, and bet a ton of money all in the hopes of seeing the who will win the first leg of the elusive Triple Crown.
As I say every year at this time, the last Kentucky Derby winner that I picked was Smarty Jones in 2004. Last year, I let my stubbornness and ideals get in the way of a big Derby payday as I opted against playing my annual $1 superfecta box that would have returned over $7k (granted my college roommate Mike did make quite a score with a $1,700 trifecta and Commanding Curve).
So what makes this year different?
Nothing.
I've been generally absent from blogging as well as actually following the Derby trail - which is something I tell myself that I am going to do every year, but it never comes to fruition as evidenced by my abysmal performance in the Public Handicapper "PH Prep" contest and absence from the Monmouth SSC Qualifiers for the first time in 5 years. Some years the schedule just doesn't work out. If anything, I have probably done less handicapping so far this year than I have in other years - even on my bread and butter tracks but just enough to keep the rust off...
So here it goes - my analysis for the 2015 Kentucky Derby... let's hope for some deja-vu however, hitting the superfecta with some value horses would be nice... all over again!
Saturday 5/2 - Churchill Downs Race 11 - 1-1/4mi - Kentucky Derby G1
15 Frosted (15-1) - He certainly has the pedigree for the distance and after having some minor surgery for breathing problems, he came back and commandingly took the Wood over several of this field. I am willing to give him a pass on the Holy Bull (troubled trip) and the stretch drive of the Fountain of Youth (breathing issues). Normally I would be wary of a horse with breathing issues, but with the usual torrid pace that is expected here, I expect to see Rosario get him in a good spot early, avoid the tangled start we can all expect to see here from the frontrunners, and set him down for a big late run.
2 Carpe Diem (8-1) - Pedigree suggests he has the distance, but would be better suited for turf. Showed improvement pressing the pace in both the Tampa Derby and the Blue Grass with the lone blemish on his record being a loss to Texas Red in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last fall at 2 years old. Connections don't get much better than Pletcher/Velazquez who are firing at a 41% clip of late. I expect to see him hanging off the lead and also making a big late move.
18 American Pharoah (5-2) - Other than my spell check constantly trying to correct his name, he has passed every test so far. Pedigree is a little lacking on distance, suggesting he would be a good miler, so he has already outrun expectations (just like California Chrome last year). He likes the lead and showed he can hang back and stalk in the Arkansas Derby, but I think the distance is too much here and Baffert goes home empty handed again.
8 Dortmund (3-1) - Has yet to fail as has steadily shown improvement. Pedigree suggests 9 furlongs would be optimal. He coasted home with a slower stretch run in the Santa Anita Derby, but showed solid late running in both the San Felipe as well as the Robert B Lewis where he fought back gamely against Firing Line in a rematch of the tightly contested Los Alamitos Futurity. While I expect him to want the lead, he'll settle for being near it and will have a steady run down the stretch, yet I don't expect him to be making up much ground late.
Pace: I expect the first half mile to be in about 46, with 11 Stanford, 17 Mr. Z, and 8 Dortmund to be the closest to the front. 18 American Pharoah will be close up with that group. 3 Materiality will try to hang, but will be lacking by the turn. The closers kick in late, led by 15 Frosted and 2 Carpe Diem. 6 Mubtaahij is a mystery in this race, but the pace is likely too fast for him to be much of a factor late. 9 Bolo may bounce and be a factor late in exotics.
I'll throw my customary $1 Superfecta box in on 2, 8, 15, 18 and maybe a $.50 Trifecta Box on the same while enjoying a refreshing beverage from my couch!
BONUS COVERAGE: A few thoughts on Friday's Kentucky Oaks...
7 Lovely Maria (5-1) - This one has been on my radar for a while and I think she moves forward here. Toss the Trapeze effort in the mud and the Rachel Alexandra where Clark lost the whip late and she has shown good tactical speed with a nice pressing/stalking effort in the Ashland.
13 Birdatthewire (6-1) - Three straight troubled trips for her resulting in two wins at two turns and second by a neck in a one turn miler with figures that are deceptively good. Tough call making this one my second choice. Pedigree suggests that she is a miler, but I think with a contested pace here she makes a solid late run.
12 Stellar Wind (7-2) - She has the pedigree to go longer and is off of two solid efforts at Santa Anita. She should take a big step forward again here but I think her late pace isn't as strong as others.
8 I'm a Chatterbox (4-1) - Went wire to wire in her 3 year old debut and the showed a solid closing effort in the Rachel Alexandra, and then from just off the pace int he Fair Ground Oaks. She has good tactical speed and will be a factor late, but I think she is truly just a miler and has not had much adversity to contend with in her last three wins. Minor share only.
Pace - Hot early pace by 5 Condo Commando will set the tone for the late runners here, she won't get clear and will get spent early trying to maintain the fastest pace she will have ever tried to set around two turns. A lot of horses here with tactical speed and late runs. Will be an exciting finish. 3 Include Betty will be moving from W-A-Y back and could hit for a minor share. 2 Shook Up (30-1) was wide in her last two - a better trip gets her on the board as well.
Thinking maybe a superfecta or trifecta box here for fun as well.
Oaks/Derby Double: 7,13 with 2,15
With the shuttering of my favorite turf meet at Atlantic City Race Course, I turn my attention to Monmouth Park opening on May 9th. Only 5.4 miles door to door from the office, or as my co-worker Anthony noted, even less from his job site. I think some lazy Friday afternoons with a good cigar and a few beers are in order this summer!
Good luck all!
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Fragments of My Imagination
"For disappearing acts, it's hard to beat what happens to the eight hours supposedly left after eight of sleep and eight of work." - Doug Larson
Honestly, I can't remember the last time I got both eight hours of sleep and only spent eight hours at work in a day??? 2014 was a blur of a year. I can't remember a year in my adulthood that blew past as fast as 2014 did. A lot happened this year - thankfully more good than bad. It just seemed we never had any real downtime at all this past year and we were always on the go for something... While I wonder where the time went, I guess more importantly I should ask that if we were so busy all the time, why does it seem like we never actually got anything done?
My quest to make the NHC Finals in Vegas started off strong - I had regrouped, was seemingly in a groove, and had been making a lot of winning wagers, had a rough go of it in the Monmouth SSC but was gaining ground on the way back when losing a photo finish stalled my all-or-nothing comeback attempt. I was undeterred. I was making some mental adjustments with each race and each card I handicapped. I was ready for the summer tourney's to start at Monmouth. I was squeezing in racecards (and plenty of winning wagers) for a couple of more months when the wheels completely fell off the bus in May. I missed out on a nice payday on the Kentucky Derby superfecta due to my own stubbornness and not wanting to wager money at Churchill. I couldn't shake that non-play out my mind and once again found myself doubting my abilities and passion for a almost the rest of the year while talking myself into plays that I should have stayed clear of looking for another potentially large score. While I did have a few moments of brilliance, I ended the year on a more sour note - not even handicapping after September and finishing in the red for the first time in over 15 years. I passed on all of the on track contests I had originally targeted at Monmouth with Woodbine even after having spent most of the year tracking key races and horsemen stats. Mentally I wasn't into immersing myself into the past performances. Suddenly, handicapping found itself relegated to the cold back burner.
"As far as Jimmy was concerned with Tommy being made, it was like we were all being made. We would now have one of our own as a member." - Henry Hill (Goodfellas)
About the time I was throwing in the towel, a great, if not inspiring, story was evolving. The NHC Finals are this upcoming weekend in Las Vegas this and while I failed to qualify, Bill Hobolowski from njhorseplayer.com will be making his Finals debut (read how he did it this summer in his post Vegas Here I Come), and in a way representing all of us - the weekend handicapper, the guy squeezing in a couple of races on the bus or train, and guy who gladly puts the races to the side to go throw the football around in the backyard with the kids. His ability to win a spot via the Del Mar Contest against 3,700+ players is a true testament to his handicapping ability, strategy, and persistence. So just like in Goodfellas, it is win and gives hope for those of us who have been sharing this journey of ups, downs, and near misses for the last few years. The only exception here being that we expect that Bill will do a little better than Tommy did getting 'made' - he is currently a huge overlay to win at 100-1 as a propositional bet!
"Don't give up on your dreams, or your dreams will give up on you." - John Wooden
I still want to make it to Vegas and win the NHC as I have over the last four years of on and (mostly) off blogging. Over the last few weeks I knew I had some decisions to make... Should I renew my NHC Tour membership? Should I place my annual order from Progressive Handicapping for Sire data? Should I take the couple of days to update my software's database for the new (and closed) tracks? All being at the expense of both time and a decent chunk of change (still haven't bought new track par data in a while).
So I made a deal with myself... I won't give up the dream in 2015, but aim to be more efficient at it. Purge the handicapping demons of years past. I know what is working and not working, I know where I need to make some improvements (such as knowing a race sets up for a closer, but can't differentiate which closer will be the right one). Utilize the tools at hand better and more often - not that my software replaces the need to handicap the races, but it does alert me to favorable (or more predictable) pace scenarios within races. If a race looks like a poor betting opportunity - PASS! Actually get to the track for live racing - probably the most enjoyable day of wagering last year was a warm Monday in April when my wife and I shot down to Parx and I watched every race live from the rail.
"Saying goodbye doesn't mean anything. It's the time we spent together that matters, not how we left it." -Trey Parker
This wasn't originally going to be part of this blog post, but with the timing of the announcement, I felt like I should at least shoehorn this one in. It was a matter of time and I think we all knew it was inevitable. The grounds had fallen into disrepair and the likelihood of anyone sinking a nickel into improving the place was nil. I can't even remember the last time I remember seeing the infield tote board working. Atlantic City Race Course is closed. Aycee and it's gorgeous turf course will likely be another strip mall or condo complex in the near future. I can kick myself for not getting down there over the last few years, but can at least hang on to the memories of my late grandmother, who would only bet on the grays, and many trips there with my wife where you could get a cheap beer out of a keg, a hot dog from a local high school group, and then shoot over to a casino afterwards to spend your winnings. I will miss the analysis between races by "the legend on the lawn" and all around great guy - William Hudgins. His insights there will be missed, but his website continues to provide great information as do his turf angles and commentary in American Turf Monthly. In years past, I would rush home from work to pull up TVG and the live streaming video of ACRC and William's comments between races.
"I'll be seeing you. In all the old familiar places." - Frank Sinatra (and many others)
The local online racing blog community has been a great group of folks to interact with and get to know... so feel free to seek me out at the Monmouth SSC #3 in March - I'll be sitting in the Terrace Restaurant down by the glass and, as usual, looking for a table with an outlet. Otherwise I am planning on a couple of weekeday Parx visits in the spring and "Fair-weather Fridays" in the picnic area during the Monmouth meet this summer will be in order - stop by for a drink and/or cigar...
However, this weekend I will be routinely checking the NHC Finals leaderboard expecting to see Bill's name at the top! Good luck and may you cash early and often!!!
Honestly, I can't remember the last time I got both eight hours of sleep and only spent eight hours at work in a day??? 2014 was a blur of a year. I can't remember a year in my adulthood that blew past as fast as 2014 did. A lot happened this year - thankfully more good than bad. It just seemed we never had any real downtime at all this past year and we were always on the go for something... While I wonder where the time went, I guess more importantly I should ask that if we were so busy all the time, why does it seem like we never actually got anything done?
My quest to make the NHC Finals in Vegas started off strong - I had regrouped, was seemingly in a groove, and had been making a lot of winning wagers, had a rough go of it in the Monmouth SSC but was gaining ground on the way back when losing a photo finish stalled my all-or-nothing comeback attempt. I was undeterred. I was making some mental adjustments with each race and each card I handicapped. I was ready for the summer tourney's to start at Monmouth. I was squeezing in racecards (and plenty of winning wagers) for a couple of more months when the wheels completely fell off the bus in May. I missed out on a nice payday on the Kentucky Derby superfecta due to my own stubbornness and not wanting to wager money at Churchill. I couldn't shake that non-play out my mind and once again found myself doubting my abilities and passion for a almost the rest of the year while talking myself into plays that I should have stayed clear of looking for another potentially large score. While I did have a few moments of brilliance, I ended the year on a more sour note - not even handicapping after September and finishing in the red for the first time in over 15 years. I passed on all of the on track contests I had originally targeted at Monmouth with Woodbine even after having spent most of the year tracking key races and horsemen stats. Mentally I wasn't into immersing myself into the past performances. Suddenly, handicapping found itself relegated to the cold back burner.
"As far as Jimmy was concerned with Tommy being made, it was like we were all being made. We would now have one of our own as a member." - Henry Hill (Goodfellas)
About the time I was throwing in the towel, a great, if not inspiring, story was evolving. The NHC Finals are this upcoming weekend in Las Vegas this and while I failed to qualify, Bill Hobolowski from njhorseplayer.com will be making his Finals debut (read how he did it this summer in his post Vegas Here I Come), and in a way representing all of us - the weekend handicapper, the guy squeezing in a couple of races on the bus or train, and guy who gladly puts the races to the side to go throw the football around in the backyard with the kids. His ability to win a spot via the Del Mar Contest against 3,700+ players is a true testament to his handicapping ability, strategy, and persistence. So just like in Goodfellas, it is win and gives hope for those of us who have been sharing this journey of ups, downs, and near misses for the last few years. The only exception here being that we expect that Bill will do a little better than Tommy did getting 'made' - he is currently a huge overlay to win at 100-1 as a propositional bet!
"Don't give up on your dreams, or your dreams will give up on you." - John Wooden
I still want to make it to Vegas and win the NHC as I have over the last four years of on and (mostly) off blogging. Over the last few weeks I knew I had some decisions to make... Should I renew my NHC Tour membership? Should I place my annual order from Progressive Handicapping for Sire data? Should I take the couple of days to update my software's database for the new (and closed) tracks? All being at the expense of both time and a decent chunk of change (still haven't bought new track par data in a while).
So I made a deal with myself... I won't give up the dream in 2015, but aim to be more efficient at it. Purge the handicapping demons of years past. I know what is working and not working, I know where I need to make some improvements (such as knowing a race sets up for a closer, but can't differentiate which closer will be the right one). Utilize the tools at hand better and more often - not that my software replaces the need to handicap the races, but it does alert me to favorable (or more predictable) pace scenarios within races. If a race looks like a poor betting opportunity - PASS! Actually get to the track for live racing - probably the most enjoyable day of wagering last year was a warm Monday in April when my wife and I shot down to Parx and I watched every race live from the rail.
"Saying goodbye doesn't mean anything. It's the time we spent together that matters, not how we left it." -Trey Parker
This wasn't originally going to be part of this blog post, but with the timing of the announcement, I felt like I should at least shoehorn this one in. It was a matter of time and I think we all knew it was inevitable. The grounds had fallen into disrepair and the likelihood of anyone sinking a nickel into improving the place was nil. I can't even remember the last time I remember seeing the infield tote board working. Atlantic City Race Course is closed. Aycee and it's gorgeous turf course will likely be another strip mall or condo complex in the near future. I can kick myself for not getting down there over the last few years, but can at least hang on to the memories of my late grandmother, who would only bet on the grays, and many trips there with my wife where you could get a cheap beer out of a keg, a hot dog from a local high school group, and then shoot over to a casino afterwards to spend your winnings. I will miss the analysis between races by "the legend on the lawn" and all around great guy - William Hudgins. His insights there will be missed, but his website continues to provide great information as do his turf angles and commentary in American Turf Monthly. In years past, I would rush home from work to pull up TVG and the live streaming video of ACRC and William's comments between races.
"I'll be seeing you. In all the old familiar places." - Frank Sinatra (and many others)
The local online racing blog community has been a great group of folks to interact with and get to know... so feel free to seek me out at the Monmouth SSC #3 in March - I'll be sitting in the Terrace Restaurant down by the glass and, as usual, looking for a table with an outlet. Otherwise I am planning on a couple of weekeday Parx visits in the spring and "Fair-weather Fridays" in the picnic area during the Monmouth meet this summer will be in order - stop by for a drink and/or cigar...
However, this weekend I will be routinely checking the NHC Finals leaderboard expecting to see Bill's name at the top! Good luck and may you cash early and often!!!
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Two Out of Three Ain't Bad (Belmont Stakes Preview)
To paraphrase Meatloaf:
We want you,
We need you,
But -- there ain't no way I'm ever going to bet you.
Now don't be sad,
Cause two out of three ain't bad.
I haven't picked aKentucky Derby Preakness Belmont Stakes winner since Smarty Jones ever. The last horse I thought had a legitimate shot at the Triple Crown was Smarty Jones, and we all remember how that played out. Belmont is not a track I regularly play and generally don't have a good feel for, but with history on the line I am compelled to take a look and voice my opinion... especially since "Nasalstripgate" has been resolved and the NY Stewards have allowed California Chrome to wear his nasal strip (which amazingly started his current 6 race win streak).
I think part of everyone, including myself, is pulling for California Chrome to provide that elusive Triple Crown winner that we have all been waiting and wanting for (even longer than the NY Rangers making it back to the Stanley Cup Finals). The sport needs a Triple Crown winner and California Chrome is a feel good story from his breeding, to his owners, and to his trainer. It is hard not to like this horse and his connections. However, he will offer no value on Saturday and is vulnerable against this field of generally well rested foes.
My quick and dirty thoughts on this one:
California Chrome will need to avoid being pressured into running something other than his race here - whether he controls it on the front end of has to rate mid-pack. I expect to see Samraat and Tonalist near the lead early setting a rather quick early pace. As the early pace starts to fade, California Chrome will stay on with the late surge by Wicked Strong, Ride On Curlin, and Commanding Curve. Ride on Curlin comes up short as he bounces off of his last big effort - even with the switch to Velazquez in the irons. Tonalist may hang around late into the stretch as he starts to tire. The other late runners seem to lack the class to contend here despite fairly strong pedigrees suggesting they have some stamina, such as Matuszak. Commissioner has yet to prove to me that he belongs in graded stakes company with his best work in the slop over this course (and the current forecast looks to be a gorgeous day). Medal Count appears to prefer the polytrack, Matterhorn has the breeding, but hasn't shown much else yet. General A Rod hasn't had the chance to show anything in the Derby or Preakness having been taken up, but may be an early factor on the pace before the distance does him in.
My picks, in preference order:
9 Wicked Strong (6-1) - troubled trip and bad post in the Derby and still managed to get up late; top choice but not by much
4 Commanding Curve (15-1) - big 8 wide move in the Derby and a troubled trip with a strong close in the Louisiana Derby - is sharp with 5 weeks off and can handle this distance
2 California Chrome (3-5) - great horse, but extra distance and early pace here will be his demise
11 Tonalist (8-1) - bred for the distance, solid connections, but think the early pace here is too fast for him to sustain
6 Matuszak (30-1) - three straight troubled trips, can get the distance, but has yet to prove any kind of class - exotics only if you want to go deep in a trifecta or superfecta
I don't expect to play anything here since my confidence level is low on this race.
If I am wrong and California Chrome wins for fun - I will ask my management if I can start wearing the same nasal strips to work...
Good luck all!
We want you,
We need you,
But -- there ain't no way I'm ever going to bet you.
Now don't be sad,
Cause two out of three ain't bad.
I haven't picked a
I think part of everyone, including myself, is pulling for California Chrome to provide that elusive Triple Crown winner that we have all been waiting and wanting for (even longer than the NY Rangers making it back to the Stanley Cup Finals). The sport needs a Triple Crown winner and California Chrome is a feel good story from his breeding, to his owners, and to his trainer. It is hard not to like this horse and his connections. However, he will offer no value on Saturday and is vulnerable against this field of generally well rested foes.
My quick and dirty thoughts on this one:
California Chrome will need to avoid being pressured into running something other than his race here - whether he controls it on the front end of has to rate mid-pack. I expect to see Samraat and Tonalist near the lead early setting a rather quick early pace. As the early pace starts to fade, California Chrome will stay on with the late surge by Wicked Strong, Ride On Curlin, and Commanding Curve. Ride on Curlin comes up short as he bounces off of his last big effort - even with the switch to Velazquez in the irons. Tonalist may hang around late into the stretch as he starts to tire. The other late runners seem to lack the class to contend here despite fairly strong pedigrees suggesting they have some stamina, such as Matuszak. Commissioner has yet to prove to me that he belongs in graded stakes company with his best work in the slop over this course (and the current forecast looks to be a gorgeous day). Medal Count appears to prefer the polytrack, Matterhorn has the breeding, but hasn't shown much else yet. General A Rod hasn't had the chance to show anything in the Derby or Preakness having been taken up, but may be an early factor on the pace before the distance does him in.
My picks, in preference order:
9 Wicked Strong (6-1) - troubled trip and bad post in the Derby and still managed to get up late; top choice but not by much
4 Commanding Curve (15-1) - big 8 wide move in the Derby and a troubled trip with a strong close in the Louisiana Derby - is sharp with 5 weeks off and can handle this distance
2 California Chrome (3-5) - great horse, but extra distance and early pace here will be his demise
11 Tonalist (8-1) - bred for the distance, solid connections, but think the early pace here is too fast for him to sustain
6 Matuszak (30-1) - three straight troubled trips, can get the distance, but has yet to prove any kind of class - exotics only if you want to go deep in a trifecta or superfecta
I don't expect to play anything here since my confidence level is low on this race.
If I am wrong and California Chrome wins for fun - I will ask my management if I can start wearing the same nasal strips to work...
Good luck all!
Thursday, May 15, 2014
The Battle of Baltimore
"It was a glorious and imposing spectacle to behold these noble ships standing up the vast bay of the Chesapeake, into the very heart of America; manned, too, with eager souls, panting for fame..." - Robert Barrett, Naval Recollections of the Late American War, 1843 (Barrett was a British midshipman serving aboard the British frigate Herbrus which took part in the bombardment)
Will California Chrome withstand the efforts of the other nine horses that are gunning for fame by beating him like Fort McHenry and the rest of Baltimore withstood the British onslaught during the War of 1812?
Do I want to see a Triple Crown winner? Yes. Do I think the industry needs a Triple Crown winner? Yes. Do I think it will be California Chrome? No. I admit that some small part of me WANTS him to pull it off, but the realistic side of me can't rationalize it - not at Pimlico, and definitely not at Belmont.
I am not going to jump on the band wagon and bash the win by California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby. He ran the race he had to run to win with something left in the tank for the Preakness. So what if it was a low Beyer figure for a Derby win - it was better than 18 other horses posted! There have been enough theories about wind, footing, and the general demise of thoroughbred racing/breeding, but the fact remains that California Chrome ran his race and won, with some help (troubled trips for Wicked Strong and others), while maintaining my o-fer streak of not picking a Derby winner since Smarty Jones. There is always next year, right???
I boycotted Churchill and it cost me - I had the four horses that made up the superfecta and instead of doing my annual $1 box on my top four, I opted to pass... do not pass "Go" and do not collect $7,691. Small consolation being that my old college roommate did play a trifecta box on those four horses and returned a tidy $1,712 plus a nice show bet on Commanding Curve. Beers are on Mike next time I see him!
As a bettor it is understandably difficult to get excited for the Preakness each year. An increasing number of the Derby entrants seem to defect from the second leg with each passing year - leaving only California Chrome, Ride On Curlin, and General a Rod as the lone three Derby horses making the trip to Baltimore this year. The wrong horse out of the Kentucky Oaks is running here, Ria Antonia who pulled Calvin Borel off of Ride On Curlin (Untapable would have likely made this a more exciting race). Lastly, off of that Derby win, California Chrome offers no value at 3-5 in a race that should set up again well for him.
Pace - Expect Bayern, Pablo Del Monte, and Social Inclusion to rush out and set a moderate +/-47.0 opening half mile (setting up very similar to the Derby). California Chrome, Dynamic Impact, Ring Weekend, General a Rod and Ride On Curlin should be sitting comfortably within about 3 lengths of the leaders for most of the race. Kid Cruz will be bringing up the rear trying to muster a late rally. I am not expecting much out of Ria Antonia at all here. Before the far turn, expect the trio early speed to be running out of gas - General a Rod will be flat as will Ring Weekend. I expect the late runs to be made here by California Chrome, Dynamic Impact, and Ride On Curlin (although I am still suspect of his ability around two turns). Kid Cruz will mount a small run late, maybe finding his way into your superfecta or trifecta; but it will really come down to California Chrome and Dynamic Impact. Dynamic Impact has the breeding (Tiznow and Smart Strike as his dam sire) to go much further and I think that this will be his edge in the closing moments of a close race.
My top four in finish order preference:
1 Dynamic Impact (12-1) - fresh legs and pedigree prevail
3 California Chrome (3-5) - valiant effort, well timed moves, but just short
10 Ride On Curlin (10-1) - moving late, but not sold he is good enough to win at two turns
7 Kid Cruz (20-1) - late rally gets him a share here
I'll be watching the tote and just may throw a few bucks on a box this time!
Good luck all!
Will California Chrome withstand the efforts of the other nine horses that are gunning for fame by beating him like Fort McHenry and the rest of Baltimore withstood the British onslaught during the War of 1812?
Do I want to see a Triple Crown winner? Yes. Do I think the industry needs a Triple Crown winner? Yes. Do I think it will be California Chrome? No. I admit that some small part of me WANTS him to pull it off, but the realistic side of me can't rationalize it - not at Pimlico, and definitely not at Belmont.
I am not going to jump on the band wagon and bash the win by California Chrome in the Kentucky Derby. He ran the race he had to run to win with something left in the tank for the Preakness. So what if it was a low Beyer figure for a Derby win - it was better than 18 other horses posted! There have been enough theories about wind, footing, and the general demise of thoroughbred racing/breeding, but the fact remains that California Chrome ran his race and won, with some help (troubled trips for Wicked Strong and others), while maintaining my o-fer streak of not picking a Derby winner since Smarty Jones. There is always next year, right???
I boycotted Churchill and it cost me - I had the four horses that made up the superfecta and instead of doing my annual $1 box on my top four, I opted to pass... do not pass "Go" and do not collect $7,691. Small consolation being that my old college roommate did play a trifecta box on those four horses and returned a tidy $1,712 plus a nice show bet on Commanding Curve. Beers are on Mike next time I see him!
As a bettor it is understandably difficult to get excited for the Preakness each year. An increasing number of the Derby entrants seem to defect from the second leg with each passing year - leaving only California Chrome, Ride On Curlin, and General a Rod as the lone three Derby horses making the trip to Baltimore this year. The wrong horse out of the Kentucky Oaks is running here, Ria Antonia who pulled Calvin Borel off of Ride On Curlin (Untapable would have likely made this a more exciting race). Lastly, off of that Derby win, California Chrome offers no value at 3-5 in a race that should set up again well for him.
Pace - Expect Bayern, Pablo Del Monte, and Social Inclusion to rush out and set a moderate +/-47.0 opening half mile (setting up very similar to the Derby). California Chrome, Dynamic Impact, Ring Weekend, General a Rod and Ride On Curlin should be sitting comfortably within about 3 lengths of the leaders for most of the race. Kid Cruz will be bringing up the rear trying to muster a late rally. I am not expecting much out of Ria Antonia at all here. Before the far turn, expect the trio early speed to be running out of gas - General a Rod will be flat as will Ring Weekend. I expect the late runs to be made here by California Chrome, Dynamic Impact, and Ride On Curlin (although I am still suspect of his ability around two turns). Kid Cruz will mount a small run late, maybe finding his way into your superfecta or trifecta; but it will really come down to California Chrome and Dynamic Impact. Dynamic Impact has the breeding (Tiznow and Smart Strike as his dam sire) to go much further and I think that this will be his edge in the closing moments of a close race.
My top four in finish order preference:
1 Dynamic Impact (12-1) - fresh legs and pedigree prevail
3 California Chrome (3-5) - valiant effort, well timed moves, but just short
10 Ride On Curlin (10-1) - moving late, but not sold he is good enough to win at two turns
7 Kid Cruz (20-1) - late rally gets him a share here
I'll be watching the tote and just may throw a few bucks on a box this time!
Good luck all!
Friday, May 2, 2014
Conflicted in Kentucky
"The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph." - Thomas Paine
I haven't picked the Derby winner since Smarty Jones. Every year, I put aside my bread and butter tracks and look at the race that makes 'everyone a racing fan for a day', however this year just doesn't feel the same.
I love this sport and am passionate about my handicapping and wagering. I love the thrill of the 3 year old season as major preps and upsets abound - even if these are races I stay away from with my betting. I think we have all gotten past the initial buzz of PETA/Asmussen but with Churchill's increased take out - enough is enough. Many of racing social media crowd have called for a boycott, and as recent numbers have shown, handle is down so far this meet (I am reading reports that say between 13% - 14% through yesterday).
This leaves me conflicted. As a horseplayer I care about my bankroll, but I also care that the horsemen and all those on the backside can make a living.
Just like the situation here in Jersey, Churchill suffers from not having other gaming at the track to pull funds (could be a different blog entirely), but trying to squeeze blood from a stone is not the answer. Horseplayers are making their voices heard via their wallets - they have had enough of seeing less and less of their money returned.
Does raising the takeout really work? Another fine piece of work by Lenny Moon at Equinometry points out how this may actually hurt them further by paralleling California's take out percentages in his recent post Churchill Downs Takeout Increase: A Futile Effort to Resurrect a Once Great Track.
Not that much of my bankroll is ever bet on Churchill, but this year they won't see any of it. However, this hasn't stopped me from handicapping the Derby, which is as tough of a field as usual.
20 Wicked Strong (8-1) - As usual, there will be a hot early pace which will knock out a group of early speedsters. The outside post won't hurt now that fireball Pablo Del Monte has scratched and he should be able to tuck nicely into the pack hitting the first turn. He is bred for this distance (or further) and will have gas in the tank late when the leaders fold in the stretch.
4 Danza (10-1) - Not much in the PP's to go on here, but Bravo got him up late on his first test around two turns in the Arkansas Derby. Running style suggests a late move if he doesn't get shuffled back early with the mad rush to the rail.
5 California Chrome (5-2) - I doubted him in the San Felipe and was proven wrong. Not really bred for the distance, but has just been the best horse on the left coast all season long - beating a solid field in the Santa Anita Derby - by 5-1/4 lengths! He'll be running late, but that last furlong may do him in...
17 Commanding Curve (50-1) - My outside pick for the bottom of the superfecta. Bred a little short of the distance, but did recover from some trouble early to get up for show in the Louisiana Derby. The bottom spots are always a crap shoot, but this one should also been making forward progress late.
No suggested wagers since I will simply we watching this one as I sip a cold refreshing beverage from home.
Good luck all!
I haven't picked the Derby winner since Smarty Jones. Every year, I put aside my bread and butter tracks and look at the race that makes 'everyone a racing fan for a day', however this year just doesn't feel the same.
I love this sport and am passionate about my handicapping and wagering. I love the thrill of the 3 year old season as major preps and upsets abound - even if these are races I stay away from with my betting. I think we have all gotten past the initial buzz of PETA/Asmussen but with Churchill's increased take out - enough is enough. Many of racing social media crowd have called for a boycott, and as recent numbers have shown, handle is down so far this meet (I am reading reports that say between 13% - 14% through yesterday).
This leaves me conflicted. As a horseplayer I care about my bankroll, but I also care that the horsemen and all those on the backside can make a living.
Just like the situation here in Jersey, Churchill suffers from not having other gaming at the track to pull funds (could be a different blog entirely), but trying to squeeze blood from a stone is not the answer. Horseplayers are making their voices heard via their wallets - they have had enough of seeing less and less of their money returned.
Does raising the takeout really work? Another fine piece of work by Lenny Moon at Equinometry points out how this may actually hurt them further by paralleling California's take out percentages in his recent post Churchill Downs Takeout Increase: A Futile Effort to Resurrect a Once Great Track.
Not that much of my bankroll is ever bet on Churchill, but this year they won't see any of it. However, this hasn't stopped me from handicapping the Derby, which is as tough of a field as usual.
20 Wicked Strong (8-1) - As usual, there will be a hot early pace which will knock out a group of early speedsters. The outside post won't hurt now that fireball Pablo Del Monte has scratched and he should be able to tuck nicely into the pack hitting the first turn. He is bred for this distance (or further) and will have gas in the tank late when the leaders fold in the stretch.
4 Danza (10-1) - Not much in the PP's to go on here, but Bravo got him up late on his first test around two turns in the Arkansas Derby. Running style suggests a late move if he doesn't get shuffled back early with the mad rush to the rail.
5 California Chrome (5-2) - I doubted him in the San Felipe and was proven wrong. Not really bred for the distance, but has just been the best horse on the left coast all season long - beating a solid field in the Santa Anita Derby - by 5-1/4 lengths! He'll be running late, but that last furlong may do him in...
17 Commanding Curve (50-1) - My outside pick for the bottom of the superfecta. Bred a little short of the distance, but did recover from some trouble early to get up for show in the Louisiana Derby. The bottom spots are always a crap shoot, but this one should also been making forward progress late.
No suggested wagers since I will simply we watching this one as I sip a cold refreshing beverage from home.
Good luck all!
Friday, February 7, 2014
Beast Mode!
"Be relentless and then you'll break through." - Julie Brown
We can learn a lot from watching our kids. Last Thursday night, my oldest son came home from karate and stood there silently moving his lips and arms as if he was talking. I asked him what he was trying to say, he kept mouthing something back to me in a bit of a fury, to which I again asked him to speak and tell me what it was. He stood there more animated but silently mouthing words to me in an even more furious manor. Not knowing what else to do, I pretended to raise a remote control, press a button, and said "I just unmuted you." Finally, my son said, "Thanks, I was stuck in mute mode and couldn't turn it off." Fast forward to the Super Bowl and as we sat on the couch in the family room to watch the game, he saw Marshawn Lynch on the television and turned to me grinning and said, "I wonder when he is going to turn on Beast Mode", while pretending to press a button on the remote control as I had done just a few nights before.
I wish it was really just that easy. Imagine that you could just click a button and go into "Beast Mode" at work, while tackling an overwhelming home improvement project, or (in my case) while handicapping or betting at the track. In Lynch's case, his continued healthy and consistent play this year was in part due to incorporating MMA training into his routine and breaking old habits that ultimately improved his strength, core, form, and his reflexes.
Between the lousy Jersey weather and a minor medical procedure last week, I have had the opportunity to spend more than my usual amount of time handicapping over the last week, reviewing results, and revisiting data I have collected. I have continued to validate many parts of my approach and analysis, but have found a few habits, much like Marshawn Lynch, that I need to break.
After mulling over my live and mock trials at tour events (similar in format to the SSC Series at Monmouth) - one glaring result that I noticed was lack of endurance. I think it is difficult for any handicapper who works a day job (bills don't pay themselves!) to be focused enough to scour upwards of 30 races to find a handful they really like and few they are willing to take a shot at. Most of my best and consistent plays happened in the first half of what I handicapped - showing either a lack of focus or lack of enthusiasm late. How does this get remedied? First off, I am being more physically active this year so the fatigue of working should be less of a factor as I have found that I have more energy and ability to stay focused. Second, I have renewed my commitment to winning and my motivation is at an all time high (with recent results that continue to build my confidence). Lastly, I am making mentally stimulating tasks a higher priority in some of my downtime - reading more insightful and thought provoking books, mastering optimal strategy in several casino games that I haven't thought about before, and playing more 'thinking' games to help clear my mind (getting back into chess, Soduku, etc.).
Watch out at Monmouth Park on March 15th - Jersey Capper will be in Beast Mode for SSC #3!!!
------------------------------------
This week's feature race is 11th Race at Gulfstream on Saturday, the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes G3 (7f for 4yo&up).
Overall, there does not appear to be any true front runner and I have come up with two slightly different pace models that yield similar results. Based on class alone, the 1 Laugh Track (5-2) and 10 Singanothersong (5-1) seem to have an edge with the defending winner of the 2013 running of the same race 8 Fort Loudon (15-1) also showing some back class, but still short of the first two. Only issue with 1 Laugh Track (5-2) is that he has yet to win on the dirt, but ran a game second in the Breeder's Cup Sprint G1 last November). The wildcard for me here is the 9 Catron (3-1) who is untested in class and has only made two starts, yet did exit a solid N1X race last out in December with an easy win over two that came back to win next out. 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1) is intriguing when looking back at the minor stakes runner up effort at Parx and the one turn second at Belmont in the Kelso G2.
Scenario #1 plays out with no one really wanting to take the lead early and 10 Singanothersong (5-1) getting out on the lead and going wire to wire
Scenario #2 has one of the field bolting to the front and forcing a faster pace than what many here are comfortable with. In this case, look for 10 Singanothersong (5-1) to rate close to that runner, 1 Laugh Track (5-2) to set up a late move, 9 Catron (3-1) will likely be close throughout, and 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1) will also be moving late. I'd expect 2 Jackson Bend (6-1) to also be on the move here, but is really only in play for the bottom of exotics.
Confidence Level: 2/5 (still many variables that can change the make-up of this race)
Top Selection: 10 Singanothersong (5-1)
Contenders: 1 Laugh Track (5-2), 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1), 9 Catron (3-1), 10 Singanothersong (5-1)
Others (factor in exotics): 2 Jackson Bend (6-1)
Good luck all!
We can learn a lot from watching our kids. Last Thursday night, my oldest son came home from karate and stood there silently moving his lips and arms as if he was talking. I asked him what he was trying to say, he kept mouthing something back to me in a bit of a fury, to which I again asked him to speak and tell me what it was. He stood there more animated but silently mouthing words to me in an even more furious manor. Not knowing what else to do, I pretended to raise a remote control, press a button, and said "I just unmuted you." Finally, my son said, "Thanks, I was stuck in mute mode and couldn't turn it off." Fast forward to the Super Bowl and as we sat on the couch in the family room to watch the game, he saw Marshawn Lynch on the television and turned to me grinning and said, "I wonder when he is going to turn on Beast Mode", while pretending to press a button on the remote control as I had done just a few nights before.
I wish it was really just that easy. Imagine that you could just click a button and go into "Beast Mode" at work, while tackling an overwhelming home improvement project, or (in my case) while handicapping or betting at the track. In Lynch's case, his continued healthy and consistent play this year was in part due to incorporating MMA training into his routine and breaking old habits that ultimately improved his strength, core, form, and his reflexes.
Between the lousy Jersey weather and a minor medical procedure last week, I have had the opportunity to spend more than my usual amount of time handicapping over the last week, reviewing results, and revisiting data I have collected. I have continued to validate many parts of my approach and analysis, but have found a few habits, much like Marshawn Lynch, that I need to break.
After mulling over my live and mock trials at tour events (similar in format to the SSC Series at Monmouth) - one glaring result that I noticed was lack of endurance. I think it is difficult for any handicapper who works a day job (bills don't pay themselves!) to be focused enough to scour upwards of 30 races to find a handful they really like and few they are willing to take a shot at. Most of my best and consistent plays happened in the first half of what I handicapped - showing either a lack of focus or lack of enthusiasm late. How does this get remedied? First off, I am being more physically active this year so the fatigue of working should be less of a factor as I have found that I have more energy and ability to stay focused. Second, I have renewed my commitment to winning and my motivation is at an all time high (with recent results that continue to build my confidence). Lastly, I am making mentally stimulating tasks a higher priority in some of my downtime - reading more insightful and thought provoking books, mastering optimal strategy in several casino games that I haven't thought about before, and playing more 'thinking' games to help clear my mind (getting back into chess, Soduku, etc.).
Watch out at Monmouth Park on March 15th - Jersey Capper will be in Beast Mode for SSC #3!!!
------------------------------------
This week's feature race is 11th Race at Gulfstream on Saturday, the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes G3 (7f for 4yo&up).
Overall, there does not appear to be any true front runner and I have come up with two slightly different pace models that yield similar results. Based on class alone, the 1 Laugh Track (5-2) and 10 Singanothersong (5-1) seem to have an edge with the defending winner of the 2013 running of the same race 8 Fort Loudon (15-1) also showing some back class, but still short of the first two. Only issue with 1 Laugh Track (5-2) is that he has yet to win on the dirt, but ran a game second in the Breeder's Cup Sprint G1 last November). The wildcard for me here is the 9 Catron (3-1) who is untested in class and has only made two starts, yet did exit a solid N1X race last out in December with an easy win over two that came back to win next out. 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1) is intriguing when looking back at the minor stakes runner up effort at Parx and the one turn second at Belmont in the Kelso G2.
Scenario #1 plays out with no one really wanting to take the lead early and 10 Singanothersong (5-1) getting out on the lead and going wire to wire
Scenario #2 has one of the field bolting to the front and forcing a faster pace than what many here are comfortable with. In this case, look for 10 Singanothersong (5-1) to rate close to that runner, 1 Laugh Track (5-2) to set up a late move, 9 Catron (3-1) will likely be close throughout, and 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1) will also be moving late. I'd expect 2 Jackson Bend (6-1) to also be on the move here, but is really only in play for the bottom of exotics.
Confidence Level: 2/5 (still many variables that can change the make-up of this race)
Top Selection: 10 Singanothersong (5-1)
Contenders: 1 Laugh Track (5-2), 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1), 9 Catron (3-1), 10 Singanothersong (5-1)
Others (factor in exotics): 2 Jackson Bend (6-1)
Good luck all!
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