"The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph." - Thomas Paine
I haven't picked the Derby winner since Smarty Jones. Every year, I put aside my bread and butter tracks and look at the race that makes 'everyone a racing fan for a day', however this year just doesn't feel the same.
I love this sport and am passionate about my handicapping and wagering. I love the thrill of the 3 year old season as major preps and upsets abound - even if these are races I stay away from with my betting. I think we have all gotten past the initial buzz of PETA/Asmussen but with Churchill's increased take out - enough is enough. Many of racing social media crowd have called for a boycott, and as recent numbers have shown, handle is down so far this meet (I am reading reports that say between 13% - 14% through yesterday).
This leaves me conflicted. As a horseplayer I care about my bankroll, but I also care that the horsemen and all those on the backside can make a living.
Just like the situation here in Jersey, Churchill suffers from not having other gaming at the track to pull funds (could be a different blog entirely), but trying to squeeze blood from a stone is not the answer. Horseplayers are making their voices heard via their wallets - they have had enough of seeing less and less of their money returned.
Does raising the takeout really work? Another fine piece of work by Lenny Moon at Equinometry points out how this may actually hurt them further by paralleling California's take out percentages in his recent post Churchill Downs Takeout Increase: A Futile Effort to Resurrect a Once Great Track.
Not that much of my bankroll is ever bet on Churchill, but this year they won't see any of it. However, this hasn't stopped me from handicapping the Derby, which is as tough of a field as usual.
20 Wicked Strong (8-1) - As usual, there will be a hot early pace which will knock out a group of early speedsters. The outside post won't hurt now that fireball Pablo Del Monte has scratched and he should be able to tuck nicely into the pack hitting the first turn. He is bred for this distance (or further) and will have gas in the tank late when the leaders fold in the stretch.
4 Danza (10-1) - Not much in the PP's to go on here, but Bravo got him up late on his first test around two turns in the Arkansas Derby. Running style suggests a late move if he doesn't get shuffled back early with the mad rush to the rail.
5 California Chrome (5-2) - I doubted him in the San Felipe and was proven wrong. Not really bred for the distance, but has just been the best horse on the left coast all season long - beating a solid field in the Santa Anita Derby - by 5-1/4 lengths! He'll be running late, but that last furlong may do him in...
17 Commanding Curve (50-1) - My outside pick for the bottom of the superfecta. Bred a little short of the distance, but did recover from some trouble early to get up for show in the Louisiana Derby. The bottom spots are always a crap shoot, but this one should also been making forward progress late.
No suggested wagers since I will simply we watching this one as I sip a cold refreshing beverage from home.
Good luck all!
Friday, May 2, 2014
Friday, February 7, 2014
Beast Mode!
"Be relentless and then you'll break through." - Julie Brown
We can learn a lot from watching our kids. Last Thursday night, my oldest son came home from karate and stood there silently moving his lips and arms as if he was talking. I asked him what he was trying to say, he kept mouthing something back to me in a bit of a fury, to which I again asked him to speak and tell me what it was. He stood there more animated but silently mouthing words to me in an even more furious manor. Not knowing what else to do, I pretended to raise a remote control, press a button, and said "I just unmuted you." Finally, my son said, "Thanks, I was stuck in mute mode and couldn't turn it off." Fast forward to the Super Bowl and as we sat on the couch in the family room to watch the game, he saw Marshawn Lynch on the television and turned to me grinning and said, "I wonder when he is going to turn on Beast Mode", while pretending to press a button on the remote control as I had done just a few nights before.
I wish it was really just that easy. Imagine that you could just click a button and go into "Beast Mode" at work, while tackling an overwhelming home improvement project, or (in my case) while handicapping or betting at the track. In Lynch's case, his continued healthy and consistent play this year was in part due to incorporating MMA training into his routine and breaking old habits that ultimately improved his strength, core, form, and his reflexes.
Between the lousy Jersey weather and a minor medical procedure last week, I have had the opportunity to spend more than my usual amount of time handicapping over the last week, reviewing results, and revisiting data I have collected. I have continued to validate many parts of my approach and analysis, but have found a few habits, much like Marshawn Lynch, that I need to break.
After mulling over my live and mock trials at tour events (similar in format to the SSC Series at Monmouth) - one glaring result that I noticed was lack of endurance. I think it is difficult for any handicapper who works a day job (bills don't pay themselves!) to be focused enough to scour upwards of 30 races to find a handful they really like and few they are willing to take a shot at. Most of my best and consistent plays happened in the first half of what I handicapped - showing either a lack of focus or lack of enthusiasm late. How does this get remedied? First off, I am being more physically active this year so the fatigue of working should be less of a factor as I have found that I have more energy and ability to stay focused. Second, I have renewed my commitment to winning and my motivation is at an all time high (with recent results that continue to build my confidence). Lastly, I am making mentally stimulating tasks a higher priority in some of my downtime - reading more insightful and thought provoking books, mastering optimal strategy in several casino games that I haven't thought about before, and playing more 'thinking' games to help clear my mind (getting back into chess, Soduku, etc.).
Watch out at Monmouth Park on March 15th - Jersey Capper will be in Beast Mode for SSC #3!!!
------------------------------------
This week's feature race is 11th Race at Gulfstream on Saturday, the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes G3 (7f for 4yo&up).
Overall, there does not appear to be any true front runner and I have come up with two slightly different pace models that yield similar results. Based on class alone, the 1 Laugh Track (5-2) and 10 Singanothersong (5-1) seem to have an edge with the defending winner of the 2013 running of the same race 8 Fort Loudon (15-1) also showing some back class, but still short of the first two. Only issue with 1 Laugh Track (5-2) is that he has yet to win on the dirt, but ran a game second in the Breeder's Cup Sprint G1 last November). The wildcard for me here is the 9 Catron (3-1) who is untested in class and has only made two starts, yet did exit a solid N1X race last out in December with an easy win over two that came back to win next out. 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1) is intriguing when looking back at the minor stakes runner up effort at Parx and the one turn second at Belmont in the Kelso G2.
Scenario #1 plays out with no one really wanting to take the lead early and 10 Singanothersong (5-1) getting out on the lead and going wire to wire
Scenario #2 has one of the field bolting to the front and forcing a faster pace than what many here are comfortable with. In this case, look for 10 Singanothersong (5-1) to rate close to that runner, 1 Laugh Track (5-2) to set up a late move, 9 Catron (3-1) will likely be close throughout, and 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1) will also be moving late. I'd expect 2 Jackson Bend (6-1) to also be on the move here, but is really only in play for the bottom of exotics.
Confidence Level: 2/5 (still many variables that can change the make-up of this race)
Top Selection: 10 Singanothersong (5-1)
Contenders: 1 Laugh Track (5-2), 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1), 9 Catron (3-1), 10 Singanothersong (5-1)
Others (factor in exotics): 2 Jackson Bend (6-1)
Good luck all!
We can learn a lot from watching our kids. Last Thursday night, my oldest son came home from karate and stood there silently moving his lips and arms as if he was talking. I asked him what he was trying to say, he kept mouthing something back to me in a bit of a fury, to which I again asked him to speak and tell me what it was. He stood there more animated but silently mouthing words to me in an even more furious manor. Not knowing what else to do, I pretended to raise a remote control, press a button, and said "I just unmuted you." Finally, my son said, "Thanks, I was stuck in mute mode and couldn't turn it off." Fast forward to the Super Bowl and as we sat on the couch in the family room to watch the game, he saw Marshawn Lynch on the television and turned to me grinning and said, "I wonder when he is going to turn on Beast Mode", while pretending to press a button on the remote control as I had done just a few nights before.
I wish it was really just that easy. Imagine that you could just click a button and go into "Beast Mode" at work, while tackling an overwhelming home improvement project, or (in my case) while handicapping or betting at the track. In Lynch's case, his continued healthy and consistent play this year was in part due to incorporating MMA training into his routine and breaking old habits that ultimately improved his strength, core, form, and his reflexes.
Between the lousy Jersey weather and a minor medical procedure last week, I have had the opportunity to spend more than my usual amount of time handicapping over the last week, reviewing results, and revisiting data I have collected. I have continued to validate many parts of my approach and analysis, but have found a few habits, much like Marshawn Lynch, that I need to break.
After mulling over my live and mock trials at tour events (similar in format to the SSC Series at Monmouth) - one glaring result that I noticed was lack of endurance. I think it is difficult for any handicapper who works a day job (bills don't pay themselves!) to be focused enough to scour upwards of 30 races to find a handful they really like and few they are willing to take a shot at. Most of my best and consistent plays happened in the first half of what I handicapped - showing either a lack of focus or lack of enthusiasm late. How does this get remedied? First off, I am being more physically active this year so the fatigue of working should be less of a factor as I have found that I have more energy and ability to stay focused. Second, I have renewed my commitment to winning and my motivation is at an all time high (with recent results that continue to build my confidence). Lastly, I am making mentally stimulating tasks a higher priority in some of my downtime - reading more insightful and thought provoking books, mastering optimal strategy in several casino games that I haven't thought about before, and playing more 'thinking' games to help clear my mind (getting back into chess, Soduku, etc.).
Watch out at Monmouth Park on March 15th - Jersey Capper will be in Beast Mode for SSC #3!!!
------------------------------------
This week's feature race is 11th Race at Gulfstream on Saturday, the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes G3 (7f for 4yo&up).
Overall, there does not appear to be any true front runner and I have come up with two slightly different pace models that yield similar results. Based on class alone, the 1 Laugh Track (5-2) and 10 Singanothersong (5-1) seem to have an edge with the defending winner of the 2013 running of the same race 8 Fort Loudon (15-1) also showing some back class, but still short of the first two. Only issue with 1 Laugh Track (5-2) is that he has yet to win on the dirt, but ran a game second in the Breeder's Cup Sprint G1 last November). The wildcard for me here is the 9 Catron (3-1) who is untested in class and has only made two starts, yet did exit a solid N1X race last out in December with an easy win over two that came back to win next out. 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1) is intriguing when looking back at the minor stakes runner up effort at Parx and the one turn second at Belmont in the Kelso G2.
Scenario #1 plays out with no one really wanting to take the lead early and 10 Singanothersong (5-1) getting out on the lead and going wire to wire
Scenario #2 has one of the field bolting to the front and forcing a faster pace than what many here are comfortable with. In this case, look for 10 Singanothersong (5-1) to rate close to that runner, 1 Laugh Track (5-2) to set up a late move, 9 Catron (3-1) will likely be close throughout, and 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1) will also be moving late. I'd expect 2 Jackson Bend (6-1) to also be on the move here, but is really only in play for the bottom of exotics.
Confidence Level: 2/5 (still many variables that can change the make-up of this race)
Top Selection: 10 Singanothersong (5-1)
Contenders: 1 Laugh Track (5-2), 6 Brujo de Oileros (5-1), 9 Catron (3-1), 10 Singanothersong (5-1)
Others (factor in exotics): 2 Jackson Bend (6-1)
Good luck all!
Friday, January 31, 2014
Demands & Balance (and Preview of the Arcadia G2)
"There's always more demands than there's time to meet them, so it's constantly a matter of trying to balance them." - Marc Andreessen
Happy (belated) New Year! It has been a while since I blogged last. I had been ready to post a "Resolutions" themed blog, but then it hit me - it would once again be more words than action. Seriously, how many people honestly stick to resolutions every year? If we did, would we really need to keep making them? Why do we set unattainable goals for ourselves only to lose interest in the first few weeks of the year? Instead, this year, I am making changes and am working to keep everything in balance.
Our lives are never the same each year and we must adapt to the dynamic nature of our lives. I have made commitments to myself this year to continue to be healthier by working out more and harder (getting up an extra 20 minutes early to really kick it in the ass every morning); by improving my diet more (cutting down on the empty calories even more); be a better role model for my kids; a better and more supportive husband to my wife (as she has her own more pressing demands to attack); trying to have a more positive and 'live in the moment' attitude (less stress); and focus on what is good in my life and eliminate the things that drag me down. Changing my attitude or approach to all of the above creates the need to seek a balance of all the demands each of these brings and there are only only so many hours in a day.
The demands in life are always changing between work, family, friends, community, and personal growth - finding balance is never easy. Over the last few weeks my focus has been less on racing and more on other aspects of life. While I have the Monmouth SSC and Favorite's contests on my radar, I have been working on a few other 'pet projects' which needed a kick start, spending more time with my family, getting healthier, and focusing on being more successful at my 'day job' - all of which have gladly come at the temporary expense of my handicapping.
So here I sit on a Friday afternoon - ready to pounce back in with two feet as the Public Handicapper Prep contest starts this weekend and I did even manage to look at the Saturday Aqueduct card in preparation for the tracks the SSC will feature. I approach this with a renewed enthusiasm this year - this is the year where I make positive strides in the contest setting as I work to rebuild the confidence of my handicapping after taking some time away from it.
Back to the action....
Santa Anita - Race 8 - 1 mi TURF - Arcadia - G2 - 4yo&up
Most likely, the early pace here won't hold up as I expect 9 Winning Prize (3-1) to bolt out early and find some pressure from 10 No Jet Lag (5-1), 7 Tom's Tribute (6-1), and 5 Regally Ready (5-1). I expect the #7 to fade away from the pack by the stretch, but expect to see 8 Suggestive Boy (7-2) making a solid run late. Alternate pace models have #9 holding on by a thread late and #5 handling an early duel and the step up in class.
My most likely contender here is 8 Suggestive Boy (7-2). The layoff doesn't scare me - he has a solid work pattern coming back after almost 11 months off and has been sharp off the bench before. Normally I would question a G1 winner out of Argentina, but he does appear to be the class of the field being the most consistent over the grass in stakes company (toss the BC Mile - did anyone really think he would beat Wise Dan???). All of his wins are against a fast pace at this distance and I expect him to be a repeat winner of this race on Saturday.
Based on my analysis, I would go with a win bet on #8 and maybe throw a small exacta on 5,8 - 5,8,9,10 if the payouts look decent.
Good luck to all!
Happy (belated) New Year! It has been a while since I blogged last. I had been ready to post a "Resolutions" themed blog, but then it hit me - it would once again be more words than action. Seriously, how many people honestly stick to resolutions every year? If we did, would we really need to keep making them? Why do we set unattainable goals for ourselves only to lose interest in the first few weeks of the year? Instead, this year, I am making changes and am working to keep everything in balance.
Our lives are never the same each year and we must adapt to the dynamic nature of our lives. I have made commitments to myself this year to continue to be healthier by working out more and harder (getting up an extra 20 minutes early to really kick it in the ass every morning); by improving my diet more (cutting down on the empty calories even more); be a better role model for my kids; a better and more supportive husband to my wife (as she has her own more pressing demands to attack); trying to have a more positive and 'live in the moment' attitude (less stress); and focus on what is good in my life and eliminate the things that drag me down. Changing my attitude or approach to all of the above creates the need to seek a balance of all the demands each of these brings and there are only only so many hours in a day.
The demands in life are always changing between work, family, friends, community, and personal growth - finding balance is never easy. Over the last few weeks my focus has been less on racing and more on other aspects of life. While I have the Monmouth SSC and Favorite's contests on my radar, I have been working on a few other 'pet projects' which needed a kick start, spending more time with my family, getting healthier, and focusing on being more successful at my 'day job' - all of which have gladly come at the temporary expense of my handicapping.
So here I sit on a Friday afternoon - ready to pounce back in with two feet as the Public Handicapper Prep contest starts this weekend and I did even manage to look at the Saturday Aqueduct card in preparation for the tracks the SSC will feature. I approach this with a renewed enthusiasm this year - this is the year where I make positive strides in the contest setting as I work to rebuild the confidence of my handicapping after taking some time away from it.
Back to the action....
Santa Anita - Race 8 - 1 mi TURF - Arcadia - G2 - 4yo&up
Most likely, the early pace here won't hold up as I expect 9 Winning Prize (3-1) to bolt out early and find some pressure from 10 No Jet Lag (5-1), 7 Tom's Tribute (6-1), and 5 Regally Ready (5-1). I expect the #7 to fade away from the pack by the stretch, but expect to see 8 Suggestive Boy (7-2) making a solid run late. Alternate pace models have #9 holding on by a thread late and #5 handling an early duel and the step up in class.
My most likely contender here is 8 Suggestive Boy (7-2). The layoff doesn't scare me - he has a solid work pattern coming back after almost 11 months off and has been sharp off the bench before. Normally I would question a G1 winner out of Argentina, but he does appear to be the class of the field being the most consistent over the grass in stakes company (toss the BC Mile - did anyone really think he would beat Wise Dan???). All of his wins are against a fast pace at this distance and I expect him to be a repeat winner of this race on Saturday.
Based on my analysis, I would go with a win bet on #8 and maybe throw a small exacta on 5,8 - 5,8,9,10 if the payouts look decent.
Good luck to all!
Friday, December 6, 2013
Getting Ahead
"The secret of getting ahead is getting started." -Agatha Christie
However in my case, it is getting restarted.
Over the last few months, I had lost my focus, drive, and motivation with both my profits and confidence in my selections suffering as a result. While I had been making great strides with my 'homemade' sheet, figures, and pace analysis/prediction over the summer, my enthusiasm for both handicapping and the sport of racing diminished. After still trying to run my sheet, handicap, track results, and place a few wagers with minimal success or interest, I had to finally realize that my head and heart were not in my work and that I needed to shut it down for a while.
Handicapping racing all year is a grind and unlike my friends that specialize in finite meets such as Saratoga or Del Mar and on sports like football or baseball, there is no 'light at the end of the tunnel' for me to shoot for. Year long meets often require constant attention - bias tracking, results, trip notes, etc. It is only natural to have your interest wane periodically, but at some point we need to recognize that and take a break before burning out while seeing our confidence and bankrolls suffer.
What were the signs of my 'handicapper burnout'?
Wednesday night marked my emphatic return to handicapping and wagering (not that I was ever really gone) by playing Woodbine. While my confidence in my own abilities had diminished a bit prior to taking a break, I found that I was handicapping and preparing for last night's card with a renewed vigor and was rewarded handsomely for my efforts by nailing the early Pick 4. I was mentally able to work through multiple pace scenarios to develop my contenders for each leg and turned my $28.80 bet on the $.20 Pick 4 into $219 and change. I was locked in. The adrenaline rush was back as I watched one of my contenders fly up the stretch late in the last leg to win at the wire.
What I learned and how to stay on track:
In other news, Monmouth Park's Simulcast Series Challenge 2014 dates have been announced (1/4, 2/16, 3/15, 4/5, and the Invitational Finals on 4/26). Kudos to Brian Skirka and his team for getting this information sent out on 11/7 which allows us to plan for these dates a lot earlier than in years past. I am going to be pointing myself towards one or more of those dates again, and anticipate making both the SSC Invitational Finals and NHC Finals!
Time to get ahead and make 2014 a career year!
However in my case, it is getting restarted.
Over the last few months, I had lost my focus, drive, and motivation with both my profits and confidence in my selections suffering as a result. While I had been making great strides with my 'homemade' sheet, figures, and pace analysis/prediction over the summer, my enthusiasm for both handicapping and the sport of racing diminished. After still trying to run my sheet, handicap, track results, and place a few wagers with minimal success or interest, I had to finally realize that my head and heart were not in my work and that I needed to shut it down for a while.
Handicapping racing all year is a grind and unlike my friends that specialize in finite meets such as Saratoga or Del Mar and on sports like football or baseball, there is no 'light at the end of the tunnel' for me to shoot for. Year long meets often require constant attention - bias tracking, results, trip notes, etc. It is only natural to have your interest wane periodically, but at some point we need to recognize that and take a break before burning out while seeing our confidence and bankrolls suffer.
What were the signs of my 'handicapper burnout'?
- Feeling an obligation instead of a desire to handicap
- Not wanting to make the necessary (and relatively minor) improvements to my sheet
- No interest in flipping on TVG while working on something in the basement (which is normally my default 'background noise' down there)
- Feeling that my routine of detailed record keeping was a chore and not an opportunity to validate my theories
- Not being open to considering change - by not logging any of the nuances I saw in a particular race/condition I could not validate/challenge/modify my logic accordingly
- Missing obvious factors when handicapping by not putting my full effort into my work
- Lack of confidence - when you take the sum of the parts above, it is becomes hard to succeed and things start a downward spiral
Wednesday night marked my emphatic return to handicapping and wagering (not that I was ever really gone) by playing Woodbine. While my confidence in my own abilities had diminished a bit prior to taking a break, I found that I was handicapping and preparing for last night's card with a renewed vigor and was rewarded handsomely for my efforts by nailing the early Pick 4. I was mentally able to work through multiple pace scenarios to develop my contenders for each leg and turned my $28.80 bet on the $.20 Pick 4 into $219 and change. I was locked in. The adrenaline rush was back as I watched one of my contenders fly up the stretch late in the last leg to win at the wire.
What I learned and how to stay on track:
- Work towards something - Monmouth SSC, NHC Tour event, etc. - a milestone date of some sort
- Don't take on more than I can handle - last year I tried some ongoing contests at Paceadvantage which had me focus on tracks I don't normally handicap and ended up taking more time than I really had to handicap
- Set realistic goals - the next 'phase' of my sheet isn't going to happen quickly or easily (analysis of a race for all of the likely pace scenarios and figure what the likelihood of each is) and I have a ton of minor tweaks to make prior to that even happening... but I can plan the logic and how I am going to accomplish this
- Hit CTRL-ALT-DEL more often - for example the winter is great for this; a week of bad weather equals a week of not really being able to play certain tracks
- Blog more - the more I talk about my theories/ideas/selections; the more I want to do it
- Re-Engage with some of my fellow horseplayers and bloggers
- Interact with new handicappers/horseplayers - inspire them and you will also find inspiration
- Have fun - your passion should never feel overwhelming
In other news, Monmouth Park's Simulcast Series Challenge 2014 dates have been announced (1/4, 2/16, 3/15, 4/5, and the Invitational Finals on 4/26). Kudos to Brian Skirka and his team for getting this information sent out on 11/7 which allows us to plan for these dates a lot earlier than in years past. I am going to be pointing myself towards one or more of those dates again, and anticipate making both the SSC Invitational Finals and NHC Finals!
Time to get ahead and make 2014 a career year!
Friday, August 16, 2013
Mistakes & Moving Forward
"Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes." - Oscar Wilde
Every handicapper is different. I know guys that are done with a race the minute the results are posted official; guys that will review and analyze how the race played out versus how they assumed the pace would set up, what unknown factors influenced the outcome (troubled trips, poor starts, etc.) and how that may have upset their projections; and then there trip handicappers who will pour over replays and make copious notes and find hidden nuggets in the way each horse was handled and what they encountered. I am also a realist - to be a successful trip handicapper, you need a lot of time to review replays, make notes, log data - something I do not have. However, I do spend the 'morning after' going over charts and seeing how well certain factors, figures, and my pace projections held up versus how the race was actually run and logging the data in countless spreadsheets for future reference, review, and manipulation.
This past Wednesday evening is a perfect example as I set out to chase the guaranteed Pick 4 at Woodbine, only to be beaten in the second leg by horse I was quick to dismiss despite my sheet telling me he could be a contender. I was correct in assuming that the early pace would not hold, but took a shot on this leg with the 2, 5, 9, and 11 (after the scratch of the 12). However, I missed the horse, #10 After Dinner, that would upset my play at a generous price.
This race was a 7f Maiden Claiming race for $10k. (I am not going to post the PP since I am not sure Brisnet would approve). Sporting a lifetime 0/16 record and being 5 years old - I had figured he was a habitual loser and not likely to improve (whereas the 3 year olds in the field would be more likely to do so). However, while doing my next morning postmortem analysis, I started stripping away the non applicable races and troubled trips, then he amazingly became more attractive.
Last Out - did not like two turns (toss)
Two Back - bumped at the start in a sprint - wasn't able to get back into it (toss)
Three back - 5 wide in the stretch and made up 8 positions and 5.75 lengths in the stretch (positive race)
Four Back - 7f over the turf in a MSW contest - wrong spot and outclassed (toss)
Five Back - 6f sprint with today's jockey showing early speed and almost at the par for today's race (positive race)
Six and Seven Back - outclassed in sprints showing some early speed against much faster fractions that in Five Back and likely to be seen in this race (toss, yet positive to see the early speed)
Eight Back - 7f with same jockey - caught at the wire trying to go wire to wire and beating this race's par (positive)
So what am I trying to get at? This was the only horse to hit par in a sprint in the entire field and when you stripped away the non applicable races, you were left with a horse that had some early speed but could also close and rate off the pace. The balance of the field would have needed to improve considerably to exceed his ability (at 5yo, you can assume he has already shown what he can do). Another telling hint was the ability time (AT) - while the headers are not shown, it is the figured circled below...
Every handicapper is different. I know guys that are done with a race the minute the results are posted official; guys that will review and analyze how the race played out versus how they assumed the pace would set up, what unknown factors influenced the outcome (troubled trips, poor starts, etc.) and how that may have upset their projections; and then there trip handicappers who will pour over replays and make copious notes and find hidden nuggets in the way each horse was handled and what they encountered. I am also a realist - to be a successful trip handicapper, you need a lot of time to review replays, make notes, log data - something I do not have. However, I do spend the 'morning after' going over charts and seeing how well certain factors, figures, and my pace projections held up versus how the race was actually run and logging the data in countless spreadsheets for future reference, review, and manipulation.
This past Wednesday evening is a perfect example as I set out to chase the guaranteed Pick 4 at Woodbine, only to be beaten in the second leg by horse I was quick to dismiss despite my sheet telling me he could be a contender. I was correct in assuming that the early pace would not hold, but took a shot on this leg with the 2, 5, 9, and 11 (after the scratch of the 12). However, I missed the horse, #10 After Dinner, that would upset my play at a generous price.
This race was a 7f Maiden Claiming race for $10k. (I am not going to post the PP since I am not sure Brisnet would approve). Sporting a lifetime 0/16 record and being 5 years old - I had figured he was a habitual loser and not likely to improve (whereas the 3 year olds in the field would be more likely to do so). However, while doing my next morning postmortem analysis, I started stripping away the non applicable races and troubled trips, then he amazingly became more attractive.
Last Out - did not like two turns (toss)
Two Back - bumped at the start in a sprint - wasn't able to get back into it (toss)
Three back - 5 wide in the stretch and made up 8 positions and 5.75 lengths in the stretch (positive race)
Four Back - 7f over the turf in a MSW contest - wrong spot and outclassed (toss)
Five Back - 6f sprint with today's jockey showing early speed and almost at the par for today's race (positive race)
Six and Seven Back - outclassed in sprints showing some early speed against much faster fractions that in Five Back and likely to be seen in this race (toss, yet positive to see the early speed)
Eight Back - 7f with same jockey - caught at the wire trying to go wire to wire and beating this race's par (positive)
So what am I trying to get at? This was the only horse to hit par in a sprint in the entire field and when you stripped away the non applicable races, you were left with a horse that had some early speed but could also close and rate off the pace. The balance of the field would have needed to improve considerably to exceed his ability (at 5yo, you can assume he has already shown what he can do). Another telling hint was the ability time (AT) - while the headers are not shown, it is the figured circled below...
After Dinner did exactly what he was supposed to do - he rated off the pace and prevailed over my four selections in this leg of the Pick 4 at a nice 11-1 (with my four contenders finishing 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th). Rest assured, dismissing a horse on the surface of what appears to be miserable career without seeing what makes up that record will not be a mistake that I make again.
Granted, it is always easier AFTER a race to say why a horse should have been picked or find some positive factor that would have led you down that path... however, finding and then accumulating the factors and reasoning that you SHOULD have seen is a great way to not miss this these same factors in the future. Some factors that I have tracked have led to nothing, but others have been invaluable additions in my approach to handicapping.
Friday, August 9, 2013
Changing My Focus (Back to the Pick 4)
"Any change, even a change for the better, is always accompanied by drawbacks and discomforts." - Arnold Bennett
I took a hiatus from handicapping. I needed a mental break from the repetitive nature of approaching the races (much like I needed a break from golf as I was developing bad habits again and reinforcing them in my muscle memory). It was a bit awkward coming back after more than two weeks on not doing my daily routine of handicapping and am changing my focus once again to chasing Pick 4's with value and/or guaranteed pools.
Any time you try to change your mindset, you find yourself full of doubt and being overly conservative - much like my last Pick 4 effort at Woodbine. I played a $.20 Pick 4 on a Wednesday with a guaranteed pool of $100k. Granted I won, but the bet was essentially a wash since I could not bring myself to eliminate any entrants in the opener where I hit the 'All' button - a field of mostly first time starters out of the twelve betting entries. I had originally had five entries, but could make a case for at least another four, which at that point I got too conservative and felt that I might as well cover the whole field. My gut choice went off at 18-1 and finished a respectable second to a much lower odds horse. The latter races I was more comfortable with and managed a single in the third leg (scratched down to a four horse field) that won and paid a whopping $2.60. The second and fourth legs were a favorite and second favorite - resulting in a less that stellar payout based on the risk. I had hung my hopes on a bomb in the wide open maiden race.
I find that when I am pointing myself towards contest play, it is hard for me to be consistent in Pick 4 play when looking for the top choice - whether it is based on likelihood of outcome or best value of the logical contenders. When I am chasing Pick 4's, I have a hard time landing on that 'top choice' for contest play. So I accept that there is some give and take based on what I am focusing on.
It is encouraging to see more regular guaranteed Pick 4 pools - both thoroughbred and harness. Woodbine offers an early $.20 Pick 4 with guaranteed pools typically ranging from $75k to $100k on every racing day. Saratoga has a $.50 Saturday Late Pick 4 with a guaranteed pool of $500k (which will be an all stakes $1M pool on 8/24), and even Los Alamitos has regular guaranteed Pick 4 pools, just to name a few. The USTA Strategic Wagering Program has added smaller pools on harness tracks which can be found daily ($5k - $20k at a variety of venues) and even offers free PP's for these wagers via Trackmaster.
What is the most baffling thing to me is that neither Equibase or the Daily Racing Form list any of these guaranteed pools when they post their daily list of carryovers. I think many bettors would want to know that there is a nice sized Pick 4 pool guaranteed when they scan over the carryover lists - instead, one can find (at the time of writing this on Friday 8/9 morning as posted on Equibase Mobile) - Indiana Downs Pick 6 $135; Mountaineer Pick 6 $857; etc. I will grant you that they do hit the big carryovers as well (Louisiana Downs Pick 5 Jackpot $810,340; Arlington Pick 9 $97,576, etc.); but why not highlight the big guaranteed pools? Wouldn't this be a great way to entice people to bet these pools so the track does not potentially take a loss by filling the balance of the pool?
Just something to ponder why I mull over today's $.20 Pick 4 at Woodbine, awaiting scratches and changes to see if it is even playable, and to see how how playable the $500k pool will be on tomorrow's Saratoga Late Pick 4 after all of the rain and today's races being taken off the turf...
I took a hiatus from handicapping. I needed a mental break from the repetitive nature of approaching the races (much like I needed a break from golf as I was developing bad habits again and reinforcing them in my muscle memory). It was a bit awkward coming back after more than two weeks on not doing my daily routine of handicapping and am changing my focus once again to chasing Pick 4's with value and/or guaranteed pools.
Any time you try to change your mindset, you find yourself full of doubt and being overly conservative - much like my last Pick 4 effort at Woodbine. I played a $.20 Pick 4 on a Wednesday with a guaranteed pool of $100k. Granted I won, but the bet was essentially a wash since I could not bring myself to eliminate any entrants in the opener where I hit the 'All' button - a field of mostly first time starters out of the twelve betting entries. I had originally had five entries, but could make a case for at least another four, which at that point I got too conservative and felt that I might as well cover the whole field. My gut choice went off at 18-1 and finished a respectable second to a much lower odds horse. The latter races I was more comfortable with and managed a single in the third leg (scratched down to a four horse field) that won and paid a whopping $2.60. The second and fourth legs were a favorite and second favorite - resulting in a less that stellar payout based on the risk. I had hung my hopes on a bomb in the wide open maiden race.
I find that when I am pointing myself towards contest play, it is hard for me to be consistent in Pick 4 play when looking for the top choice - whether it is based on likelihood of outcome or best value of the logical contenders. When I am chasing Pick 4's, I have a hard time landing on that 'top choice' for contest play. So I accept that there is some give and take based on what I am focusing on.
It is encouraging to see more regular guaranteed Pick 4 pools - both thoroughbred and harness. Woodbine offers an early $.20 Pick 4 with guaranteed pools typically ranging from $75k to $100k on every racing day. Saratoga has a $.50 Saturday Late Pick 4 with a guaranteed pool of $500k (which will be an all stakes $1M pool on 8/24), and even Los Alamitos has regular guaranteed Pick 4 pools, just to name a few. The USTA Strategic Wagering Program has added smaller pools on harness tracks which can be found daily ($5k - $20k at a variety of venues) and even offers free PP's for these wagers via Trackmaster.
What is the most baffling thing to me is that neither Equibase or the Daily Racing Form list any of these guaranteed pools when they post their daily list of carryovers. I think many bettors would want to know that there is a nice sized Pick 4 pool guaranteed when they scan over the carryover lists - instead, one can find (at the time of writing this on Friday 8/9 morning as posted on Equibase Mobile) - Indiana Downs Pick 6 $135; Mountaineer Pick 6 $857; etc. I will grant you that they do hit the big carryovers as well (Louisiana Downs Pick 5 Jackpot $810,340; Arlington Pick 9 $97,576, etc.); but why not highlight the big guaranteed pools? Wouldn't this be a great way to entice people to bet these pools so the track does not potentially take a loss by filling the balance of the pool?
Just something to ponder why I mull over today's $.20 Pick 4 at Woodbine, awaiting scratches and changes to see if it is even playable, and to see how how playable the $500k pool will be on tomorrow's Saratoga Late Pick 4 after all of the rain and today's races being taken off the turf...
Friday, July 5, 2013
Direction, Progress, and Parx Saturday Preview
"I can't change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination." - Jimmy Dean
You can't force data to do what you want it to do - it will do what it does and you need to adapt to your findings. I have refined my sheet and alas I am willing to show a couple of Saturday's races from Parx with it. I still have work to do - a laundry list of minor bugs, a way to denote if a front-runner has never had to face pressure, and a confidence assessment based upon various factors within the race. I have also decided to clean up the factors I don't really use or feel don't impact my decisions - amazingly I realized half of what was on my sheet could be removed. Less is more, especially when it is more useful and reliable than what was eliminated. It has taken me well over a year to get it this far, and know that I still have much more work to do. As Thomas Edison once said, "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." Any seasoned handicapper will agree that not every idea we have, track, refine, dissect, and over analyze will be a winner, yet we all learn something in the process - other factors to watch on other angles/ideas/systems, finding a niche where a factor works, or we blindly stumble across success in our failure. The game is ever changing and angles/ideas that worked a few years ago many be rendered useless as the race conditions and horse conditioning changes.
A few weeks back I wrote about my thoughts on the Matrix Handicapping book by David Vaccaro. I was actually floored that I had an email from David in my inbox this morning - he managed to stumble across my blog from May 24th and appreciated my feedback, honesty, and was glad I could take something positive away from his work. I plan on giving him my honest feedback of the factor I was planning to track (post email, I did set up a tab in my results file and did notice that Rainbow Heir in the 10th at Monmouth on 7/4 was a winning play of what I had described) and I look forward to further interaction with someone else who shares my passion at the level I do. I would also like to give a kudos to Derek Simon with the launch of his new site, simonspeedrations.com - I have been following his work for quite a while and he was the latest motivator/inspiration to get my 'fecal matter coagulated' and finish my beta-pace analysis.
So without much further ado, I will get to business here... I tried to keep the tutorial on how to read my sheet short and sweet - wasn't going to happen. It is a bit long winded before you get to the actual analysis and race reviews, but here it goes....
You can't force data to do what you want it to do - it will do what it does and you need to adapt to your findings. I have refined my sheet and alas I am willing to show a couple of Saturday's races from Parx with it. I still have work to do - a laundry list of minor bugs, a way to denote if a front-runner has never had to face pressure, and a confidence assessment based upon various factors within the race. I have also decided to clean up the factors I don't really use or feel don't impact my decisions - amazingly I realized half of what was on my sheet could be removed. Less is more, especially when it is more useful and reliable than what was eliminated. It has taken me well over a year to get it this far, and know that I still have much more work to do. As Thomas Edison once said, "I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work." Any seasoned handicapper will agree that not every idea we have, track, refine, dissect, and over analyze will be a winner, yet we all learn something in the process - other factors to watch on other angles/ideas/systems, finding a niche where a factor works, or we blindly stumble across success in our failure. The game is ever changing and angles/ideas that worked a few years ago many be rendered useless as the race conditions and horse conditioning changes.
A few weeks back I wrote about my thoughts on the Matrix Handicapping book by David Vaccaro. I was actually floored that I had an email from David in my inbox this morning - he managed to stumble across my blog from May 24th and appreciated my feedback, honesty, and was glad I could take something positive away from his work. I plan on giving him my honest feedback of the factor I was planning to track (post email, I did set up a tab in my results file and did notice that Rainbow Heir in the 10th at Monmouth on 7/4 was a winning play of what I had described) and I look forward to further interaction with someone else who shares my passion at the level I do. I would also like to give a kudos to Derek Simon with the launch of his new site, simonspeedrations.com - I have been following his work for quite a while and he was the latest motivator/inspiration to get my 'fecal matter coagulated' and finish my beta-pace analysis.
So without much further ado, I will get to business here... I tried to keep the tutorial on how to read my sheet short and sweet - wasn't going to happen. It is a bit long winded before you get to the actual analysis and race reviews, but here it goes....
It is
easily adjusted for scratches (by placing an ‘x’ in the column to the left of
the Program Number) and if the race is switched from turf to dirt (by placing
an ‘x’ in the Green box in the gray bar).
In the gray bar across the top of each race you will find
the Race, conditions, and distance.
FLF – Favorite Likelihood Factor – average is 30; the higher
it is the more likely the favorite is, the lower, the less likely. This is based on a number of factors within
the race and field.
PPG – This is the ‘Pace Pressure Gauge’ from Randy Giles
Extreme Pace Handicapping. The other
designations in the box are what type of runner would be favored based on the
PPG.
AVG & MAX for the ES, LS, OS - these are part of the
pace computations; and a designation that points to whether the early pace will
be strong, weak, or unsure.
Figures After the Program # and Horse Name:
Two columns labeled “Smooth” Pts and Odds. This is my system of assigning values to each
entry based on the probability of results based upon individual factors (little
inter-relation between the field here).
The ‘Odds’ is my fair odds based upon these factors. Through years of testing, this raw factor
when used alone wins at about 30% with a .976 ROI. Needless to say, there are conditions where
it does better and is profitable absent of any other handicapping.
ML – Morning Line Odds of the horse
Style / QP – Quirin based styles and speed points
Pace – my own twist on the Quirin designations – xf, f, mf,
m, sm, s, xs – extra fast, fast, medium-fast, medium, slow-medium, slow, extra
slow – based on the half mile call as to what pace range the horse likes (not
necessarily the half mile time of the horse).
Speed – My homemade speed figure (wins 29.5% - 1.085 ROI on
its own)
Raw Speed – My original speed figure (wins 26.5% - 0.978 ROI
on its own)
Pace – Homemade pace figure – the lower, the better (win
28.6% - 1.078 ROI on its own)
Raw Power is a factor based on my other factors (wins 30.5%
- 1.12 ROI on its own)
Late Pace is a route only factor I have been tracking – too early
to speak to how valid it is.
PBR – not only my favorite form of liquid refreshment, but
right out of Mike Pizzolla’s Handicapping Magic (based largely on his PBS –
Pizzolla Balanced Speed Rating)
TT / AT – Target Rating / Ability Rating – straight out of
Matrix Handicapping by Dave Vaccaro
ES is early pace, LS is late pace, OS is overall speed – the
ESR, LSR, and OSR are the ES Rating, LS Rating, and OS Rating respectively. How these values play out determine the
comment regarding pace. Also, if you see
a “+” before the comment – it means the horse has more energy over the course
of the race based on how the project pace sets up.
Angles – This section flags certain spot play angles I like
to use in my daily handicapping. It does
not mean they are there in some more subjective cases, but alerts me to the
likelihood of their presence.
How does it all come together? Good question, if I knew, I would quit my day
job! Seriously though, when the ‘Pts’,
Pace, Speed, Raw Speed, and Raw Power all agree – the win rate is 45.4% with a
ROI of 1.12 independent of any other handicapping (with a frequency of occurrence
of less than 10% of all races handicapped).
Like all of my other factors, it has its niches – the ‘All 5’ does its
best in dirt sprints over applicable MSW,
maiden claiming, and claiming races (47.5% - 1.19 ROI). I don't always go with the top choice based on figures, or even pace... my manual handicapping either validates or eliminates plays...
Naturally I picked Parx for Saturday which fields a number of low confidence races for me (5 of the 9 races are maiden claimers); which also limits my sheet's applicability (Races 1,2,7,8,9). Overall the card does set up to favor lower priced horses, so we'll just have to pick and choose when the odds are reasonable...
Race 1 - 4 Ebbycalvin Laloosh (7-5) presses the likely pacesetter 6 Tyeste (6-1)
Race 2 - 7 Yodelin Moon (3-1) rolls late with 8 Silky Lace (2-1) as the early pace set by 2 Hannah's Gamble (10-1) and 5 Mahaica Gap (7-2) falls apart
Race 3 (Finally an applicable race!) - 4 Talk Of The Night (5-2) has back class and should be able to take this field wire to wire; 2 Emotional Lady (4-1) will be making a late and may be around should #4 falter late.
Race 4 - 4 Imperial Bluegrazz (8-5) looks to go wire to wire on the drop here (but not worth it at this price), 7 Cyclone Warrior (4-1) has shown some deceptive form last out and may respond here. (In this case I take the pace scenario and some of the figures over the Pts).
Race 5 - The pace set up is questionable - I came up with two likely scenarios... First - 8 Elegant Heart (8-5) looks to go wire to wire. Second (which seems most likely) - 2 Unorganized Crime (12-1) and 4 Fasterlizpfaster (15-1) may disrupt the early pace which would set up a late rally by 6 Power's Cupcake (5-2) - again, I deviate from what my sheet tells me based on my own manual assessment.
Race 6 - 1 Delta Doyenne (8-5) can duel, but is more likely to take this one wire to wire; 7 My Wild Irish Rose (3-1) may be the spoiler and expect a late run from 6 Golden Rock (6-1). Here my manual assessment agrees with my sheet:
Race 7 - (too many first time turfers to be applicable) - Wide open field - 5 Enjoy the Win (8-5) appears to be the best over the turf with 1 Christmas Angel (2-1) having some back class despite being short with 3 A Lady Called Max (5-1) making her return to the grass with some decent connections and a moderate pedigree. Low confidence race both manually and with the sheet.
Race 8 - (too many first time turfers to be applicable) - Early pace won't hold for the #1/1A Crook-Demasi Entry (3-1), with 6 Ceasing (8-1) looking to bounce back off of a poor effort last out while sporting a pedigree which points to him doing well over the turf, and #2/2X Preciado Entry (2-1) showing some recent form. Low confidence race again - both manually and with the sheet.
Race 9 - (insufficient data for the sheet to be applicable) - 1 Buddys Moon (8-1) never got it going after being bumped at the start last out did run a deceptive good race two back after not liking two turns and the slop - he should take advantage of the post, the drop to the claiming ranks, and a weak early pace here. 4 Street Ballad (7-2) will also be part of the late run after a long rest and switching back to a one turn race on the dirt. 10 Bialystok (5-2) comes off of a long layoff and shortens up and tries dirt for the first time... a lot of karma changes here could point to an improving effort.
As always - good luck! Let me know if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms of my sheets above! I always welcome feedback!
Race 1 - 4 Ebbycalvin Laloosh (7-5) presses the likely pacesetter 6 Tyeste (6-1)
Race 2 - 7 Yodelin Moon (3-1) rolls late with 8 Silky Lace (2-1) as the early pace set by 2 Hannah's Gamble (10-1) and 5 Mahaica Gap (7-2) falls apart
Race 3 (Finally an applicable race!) - 4 Talk Of The Night (5-2) has back class and should be able to take this field wire to wire; 2 Emotional Lady (4-1) will be making a late and may be around should #4 falter late.
Race 4 - 4 Imperial Bluegrazz (8-5) looks to go wire to wire on the drop here (but not worth it at this price), 7 Cyclone Warrior (4-1) has shown some deceptive form last out and may respond here. (In this case I take the pace scenario and some of the figures over the Pts).
Race 8 - (too many first time turfers to be applicable) - Early pace won't hold for the #1/1A Crook-Demasi Entry (3-1), with 6 Ceasing (8-1) looking to bounce back off of a poor effort last out while sporting a pedigree which points to him doing well over the turf, and #2/2X Preciado Entry (2-1) showing some recent form. Low confidence race again - both manually and with the sheet.
Race 9 - (insufficient data for the sheet to be applicable) - 1 Buddys Moon (8-1) never got it going after being bumped at the start last out did run a deceptive good race two back after not liking two turns and the slop - he should take advantage of the post, the drop to the claiming ranks, and a weak early pace here. 4 Street Ballad (7-2) will also be part of the late run after a long rest and switching back to a one turn race on the dirt. 10 Bialystok (5-2) comes off of a long layoff and shortens up and tries dirt for the first time... a lot of karma changes here could point to an improving effort.
As always - good luck! Let me know if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms of my sheets above! I always welcome feedback!
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