Direction, Progress, and Parx Saturday Preview

"I can't change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination." - Jimmy Dean

You can't force data to do what you want it to do - it will do what it does and you need to adapt to your findings.  I have refined my sheet and alas I am willing to show a couple of Saturday's races from Parx with it.  I still have work to do - a laundry list of minor bugs, a way to denote if a front-runner has never had to face pressure, and a confidence assessment based upon various factors within the race.  I have also decided to clean up the factors I don't really use or feel don't impact my decisions - amazingly I realized half of what was on my sheet could be removed.  Less is more, especially when it is more useful and reliable than what was eliminated.  It has taken me well over a year to get it this far, and know that I still have much more work to do.  As Thomas Edison once said, "I have not failed.  I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."  Any seasoned handicapper will agree that not every idea we have, track, refine, dissect, and over analyze will be a winner, yet we all learn something in the process - other factors to watch on other angles/ideas/systems, finding a niche where a factor works, or we blindly stumble across success in our failure.  The game is ever changing and angles/ideas that worked a few years ago many be rendered useless as the race conditions and horse conditioning changes.

A few weeks back I wrote about my thoughts on the Matrix Handicapping book by David Vaccaro.  I was actually floored that I had an email from David in my inbox this morning - he managed to stumble across my blog from May 24th and appreciated my feedback, honesty, and was glad I could take something positive away from his work.  I plan on giving him my honest feedback of the factor I was planning to track (post email, I did set up a tab in my results file and did notice that Rainbow Heir in the 10th at Monmouth on 7/4 was a winning play of what I had described) and I look forward to further interaction with someone else who shares my passion at the level I do.  I would also like to give a kudos to Derek Simon with the launch of his new site, simonspeedrations.com - I have been following his work for quite a while and he was the latest motivator/inspiration to get my 'fecal matter coagulated' and finish my beta-pace analysis.

So without much further ado, I will get to business here... I tried to keep the tutorial on how to read my sheet short and sweet - wasn't going to happen.  It is a bit long winded before you get to the actual analysis and race reviews, but here it goes....

It is easily adjusted for scratches (by placing an ‘x’ in the column to the left of the Program Number) and if the race is switched from turf to dirt (by placing an ‘x’ in the Green box in the gray bar).

In the gray bar across the top of each race you will find the Race, conditions, and distance.

FLF – Favorite Likelihood Factor – average is 30; the higher it is the more likely the favorite is, the lower, the less likely.  This is based on a number of factors within the race and field. 

PPG – This is the ‘Pace Pressure Gauge’ from Randy Giles Extreme Pace Handicapping.  The other designations in the box are what type of runner would be favored based on the PPG.

AVG & MAX for the ES, LS, OS - these are part of the pace computations; and a designation that points to whether the early pace will be strong, weak, or unsure.

Figures After the Program # and Horse Name:

Two columns labeled “Smooth” Pts and Odds.  This is my system of assigning values to each entry based on the probability of results based upon individual factors (little inter-relation between the field here).  The ‘Odds’ is my fair odds based upon these factors.  Through years of testing, this raw factor when used alone wins at about 30% with a .976 ROI.  Needless to say, there are conditions where it does better and is profitable absent of any other handicapping.

ML – Morning Line Odds of the horse

Style / QP – Quirin based styles and speed points

Pace – my own twist on the Quirin designations – xf, f, mf, m, sm, s, xs – extra fast, fast, medium-fast, medium, slow-medium, slow, extra slow – based on the half mile call as to what pace range the horse likes (not necessarily the half mile time of the horse).

Speed – My homemade speed figure (wins 29.5% - 1.085 ROI on its own)

Raw Speed – My original speed figure (wins 26.5% - 0.978 ROI on its own)

Pace – Homemade pace figure – the lower, the better (win 28.6% - 1.078 ROI on its own)

Raw Power is a factor based on my other factors (wins 30.5% - 1.12 ROI on its own)

Late Pace is a route only factor I have been tracking – too early to speak to how valid it is.

PBR – not only my favorite form of liquid refreshment, but right out of Mike Pizzolla’s Handicapping Magic (based largely on his PBS – Pizzolla Balanced Speed Rating)

TT / AT – Target Rating / Ability Rating – straight out of Matrix Handicapping by Dave Vaccaro

ES is early pace, LS is late pace, OS is overall speed – the ESR, LSR, and OSR are the ES Rating, LS Rating, and OS Rating respectively.  How these values play out determine the comment regarding pace.  Also, if you see a “+” before the comment – it means the horse has more energy over the course of the race based on how the project pace sets up.

Angles – This section flags certain spot play angles I like to use in my daily handicapping.  It does not mean they are there in some more subjective cases, but alerts me to the likelihood of their presence.

How does it all come together?  Good question, if I knew, I would quit my day job!  Seriously though, when the ‘Pts’, Pace, Speed, Raw Speed, and Raw Power all agree – the win rate is 45.4% with a ROI of 1.12 independent of any other handicapping (with a frequency of occurrence of less than 10% of all races handicapped).  Like all of my other factors, it has its niches – the ‘All 5’ does its best in dirt sprints over applicable MSW,  maiden claiming, and claiming races (47.5% - 1.19 ROI).  I don't always go with the top choice based on figures, or even pace... my manual handicapping either validates or eliminates plays...

Naturally I picked Parx for Saturday which fields a number of low confidence races for me (5 of the 9 races are maiden claimers); which also limits my sheet's applicability (Races 1,2,7,8,9).  Overall the card does set up to favor lower priced horses, so we'll just have to pick and choose when the odds are reasonable...

Race 1 - 4 Ebbycalvin Laloosh (7-5) presses the likely pacesetter 6 Tyeste (6-1)

Race 2 - 7 Yodelin Moon (3-1) rolls late with 8 Silky Lace (2-1) as the early pace set by 2 Hannah's Gamble (10-1) and 5 Mahaica Gap (7-2) falls apart

Race 3 (Finally an applicable race!) - 4 Talk Of The Night (5-2) has back class and should be able to take this field wire to wire; 2 Emotional Lady (4-1) will be making a late and may be around should #4 falter late.

Race 4 - 4 Imperial Bluegrazz (8-5) looks to go wire to wire on the drop here (but not worth it at this price), 7 Cyclone Warrior (4-1) has shown some deceptive form last out and may respond here.  (In this case I take the pace scenario and some of the figures over the Pts).

Race 5 - The pace set up is questionable - I came up with two likely scenarios... First - 8 Elegant Heart (8-5) looks to go wire to wire.  Second (which seems most likely) - 2 Unorganized Crime (12-1) and 4 Fasterlizpfaster (15-1) may disrupt the early pace which would set up a late rally by 6 Power's Cupcake (5-2)  - again, I deviate from what my sheet tells me based on my own manual assessment.

Race 6 - 1 Delta Doyenne (8-5) can duel, but is more likely to take this one wire to wire; 7 My Wild Irish Rose (3-1) may be the spoiler and expect a late run from 6 Golden Rock (6-1).  Here my manual assessment agrees with my sheet:

Race 7 - (too many first time turfers to be applicable) - Wide open field - 5 Enjoy the Win (8-5) appears to be the best over the turf with 1 Christmas Angel (2-1) having some back class despite being short with 3 A Lady Called Max (5-1) making her return to the grass with some decent connections and a moderate pedigree. Low confidence race both manually and with the sheet.

Race 8 - (too many first time turfers to be applicable) - Early pace won't hold for the #1/1A Crook-Demasi Entry (3-1), with 6 Ceasing (8-1) looking to bounce back off of a poor effort last out while sporting a pedigree which points to him doing well over the turf, and #2/2X Preciado Entry (2-1) showing some recent form.  Low confidence race again - both manually and with the sheet.

Race 9 - (insufficient data for the sheet to be applicable) - 1 Buddys Moon (8-1) never got it going after being bumped at the start last out did run a deceptive good race two back after not liking two turns and the slop - he should take advantage of the post, the drop to the claiming ranks, and a weak early pace here.  4 Street Ballad (7-2) will also be part of the late run after a long rest and switching back to a one turn race on the dirt.  10 Bialystok (5-2) comes off of a long layoff and shortens up and tries dirt for the first time... a lot of karma changes here could point to an improving effort.

As always - good luck!  Let me know if you have any questions, comments, or criticisms of my sheets above!  I always welcome feedback!

Challenges

"There is nothing like a challenge to bring out the best in man (or woman)." - Sean Connery



The last few weeks have been mentally and emotionally taxing both personally and professionally.  Our house is in a state of construction and while work commenced in a furious fashion last week, the weather this week has limited the contractor to a half day of work.  We have limited access to the basement and are surviving with no access to TV (worse on the kids than on us - we caught the Game of Thrones finale online).  The last week of weather has also had me reconsidering whether we should have gone ahead with the deck and family room or if we'd be better suited with building a small ark and collecting two of every animal considering we already have a ton of rabbits in our yard and one pesky groundhog we are off to a good start.  Sick kids have piled on the stress and I know my wife and I were nearing the breaking point.  However, a friend and colleague of my wife shared a short video about creating 30 days challenges and how that can change your life.  Inspired by her colleague, my wife and another colleague are going to embark on a 30 day challenge to regain balance and happiness...  which made me wonder - what should be my 30 day challenge???

I have thought long and hard about this 30 day challenge.  I had thought about trying to do 30 days of trying to be more helpful to others (as I am helping a coworker who was given an assignment that is a bit overwhelming and whom I want to see succeed in spite of the obstacles put in his way); I had thought about reigniting an old passion I had in my youth of sketching or drawing daily; I had considered trying to blog or write a racing related article everyday and making those into a book that was a compilation of handicapping theories; and also thought about placing a well thought out winning wager every day.  I don't know what I will do - but I do know that helping my coworker work on becoming competent and familiar with areas he has never been trained in has somewhat re-purposed my attitude at work and made me think that I should also do something to pass along some of the knowledge I have gained (as well as lessons I have learned the hard way) not only to him regarding work, but to other upcoming handicappers to help keep the racing industry alive - after all, what good is knowledge if it doesn't get passed along?  Who knows, maybe I'll even get the itch to draw and sketch again - it has only been 20+ years since I used to carry a pad and just start drawing and losing myself in my art (and I did check, there are two art pads sitting in the closet here in our home office).

What am I going to do?  30 days of something positive daily for myself and others.  With the turmoil called residential construction and the excessive rain (really, we have had a month's worth already) I have gotten out of my fitness routine in the last two weeks and need to get back to that - it made me feel better and probably made me more pleasant to be around.  I am going to be more supportive and helpful to my colleagues at work - I know I can help them grow and succeed.  As I mark 15 years at my current job, I know that I would not have made it as far as I have without the mentorship and openness of my former colleagues who took me under their wings and didn't just show me how to do it, but made me understand how and why things went together.  I will squash the negativity that has crept into my work and home life and I know that it will be beneficial to my wife as she continues her quest to finish her doctorate and to my children who I know wish they had more 'daddy' time.

As I write this on Friday (Day 1), I have gotten in a heavybag workout,  am getting ready to review where my coworker is with his current assignment, and have written this blog.  Later this evening, I look forward to a quiet evening without the TV with my wife and kids.

Enough about life - on to the task at hand - a preview of Monmouth's Saturday card.... with the 'near miss' of the derecho that was over-hyped for Thursday, we may have a shot of being on the turf for the Saturday card...

Race 1 - 1 Carl's Only Vice (9-5) rolls late with 2 Uptown Ball (2-1) off of the early pace set by a weakening 6 Close to Sonny (6-1)

Race 2 - 4 Big Dealer (9-5) looks to go wire to wire here third off of the layoff, but keep an eye on 3 Steady Gentleman (7-2) who drops off second off of the long layoff after showing some early interest

Race 3 - 5 Tobaggan Slide (7-2) looks to go wire to wire, while 3 The Best Glacier (2-1) will be looming should the early pace collapse

Race 4 - 8 Raro (5-1) closes late along with 5 D'Iucci Girl (15-1) and 7 Cotton Pickin (9-2) as the early pace set by 2 Why Should I (7-2), 10 Rosie's Run (20-1) and 1 Mass Invasion (8-1) will falter  - course condition and scratches will be critical to the projected pace here (assumed turf)

Race 5 - 6 Mrs. Sinatra (5-1) edges out fellow late runner 5 Sidney Anne (3-1) as the early pace set by 4 Jubileera (5-2), 2 Princess Perfect (5-1), and 1 Black Ana Splash (4-1) won't hold late

Race 6 - 2 Dubai Time (6-1) drops second off of the layoff and improves here with a late rally along with 6 Mimito Boy (4-1) and 8 Exeter Road (6-1) as the early pace is challenged and falters late

Race 7 - 5 National Prayer (2-1) ships in and looks to go wire to wire here while 3 Uncle Drew Bear (20-1) and 4 Mister Lucky Cat (5-2) may be a factor here as well

Race 8 - 9 Breathaway (7-2) looks to be on or near the lead the whole way and will improve going back to the turf, 3 He's Hollywood (6-1) and 7 Quiet Danger (3-1) also look to be logical contenders

Race 9 - 6 City's Fast Lane (6-1) looks to take this field wire to wire, 7 Catch Me Kaz (8-1) will be around late should the early pace falter, and 9 Score the Gold (5-2) will also be looming late

Race 10 - 9 Funfair (5-1) makes her 3 year old debut after a perfect freshman campaign over this course, strong connections here with Bravo/Clement and she can duel - hard to ignore in this spot; 1 Fearless Jacq (5-2) has a versatile style which should her get position early, however Terranova has struggled over this turf course in recent years; 6 Jewel Of A Cat (6-1) didn't like the polytrack in her last two efforts and is likely to improve over the grass here.

Race 11 - 7 Interrogate Me (9-2) makes a late run and improves second off of the layoff as 1 Quiet Miracle (6-1) is part of the late rally.  8 Seven Kind (2-1) may be able to get loose on the lead early and go wire to wire, but that depends on how well the inside horses break.

Have a great Father's Day Weekend!

Good luck all!

Finding Your Niche (and Thoughts on MTH Saturday)

"Look, all you can do when you find your niche is go with it." - Vincent D'Onofrio

Having spent most of the year chasing contests that were outside of my comfort zone and trying to force action on tracks and in conditions that I am not that confident in, I have finally gone back to what I know.  The last two weeks have been much more fruitful and have helped to build back my confidence as I have been back handicapping Monmouth Park, Delaware Park, Parx, and Finger Lakes (insert groans here).

I once has a disagreement with someone over what tracks are playable or what makes a race playable.  While we both agreed that you need to be comfortable with how you feel the race sets up or what the intent of the horsemen is, the disagreement fell to what circuit(s) should be played.  My acquaintance insisted that only high purse, premier venues were worth playing (higher handle, larger pools) and I insisted that winners are winners where ever you may find value (when your fair odds are better than the post time odds).  I can see his side of the argument - better tracks and purses attract better horses and larger fields, which leads to larger pools; however what good is all that if you can't dissect the race and make a profit?  Why mess with a good thing?

I admittedly do chase, with some success, guaranteed pools on some Saturdays on the NYRA circuit, but know that this is not my niche.  Maybe in my mind it is okay to be Crash Davis and tear it up on the minor league circuits.  I guess what is really boils down to is that when your cash is on the line, you need to be comfortable with your decision.  If this means forgoing certain contests or events since you are not comfortable, that is fine, but taking that occasional shot is worth it.  I spent a few months trying to adapt to circuits and conditions I am not always confident in playing and had moderate success, but not to the extent I have had on a day-to-day basis in the past when I stick to my bread and butter tracks.

Some thoughts on Saturday's Monmouth card:
Race 1 - 4 Tex Appeal (2-1) has the pedigree to suggest a debut winner despite the trouble Cibelli has had recently (not going there in this blog); 1/1A Aristone Entry (8-5) also appears sharp - not much value here and a low confidence with all the 2YO debuts, I would suggest passing.

Race 2 - 4 South Beach Queen (7-2) stretches out on the drop and Breen does connect on a high percentage of MC races.  3 Johanna Honey (4-1) tries two turns off of the layoff and her breeding suggests she should like this distance.  6 Armedia (5-2) rounds out the contenders that will be chasing a pace set by 7 Chocolate Drops (9-2) who may get loose early but will falter late.

Race 3 - 1 Jack Taylor (3-1) may get loose on the lead uncontested and cruise home wire to wire as Lopez and Trujillo have been historically solid at MTH; 4 Quepos (3-1) looks to pick up the pieces if the early pace fails.

Race 4 - 3 Ingenuity (9-2) shows a solid work pattern and decent pedigree and along with 7 Thunder Hole (6-1) may be able to take advantage of a speed duel between 1 No Its Not (5-1) and 4 Bob And The Gang (2-1).  6 Best Man (5-2) may also be looming late and is not to be overlooked.

Race 5 - 5 Dazzlin Dr Cologne (6-5) may be able to overcome a slight class disadvantage and take this field wire to wire.  Should he fail on the lead, 6 Raised for Speed (4-1) looks to be making a move late.

Race 6 - 2 Shimmering Rita (3-1) looks to have an advantage on the early pace and should take this field wire to wire.  9 Forgotten Prayers (5-1) could play spoiler second off the layoff and on the drop with Moya in the irons.

Race 7 - 2 Silent Appeal (9-2) dueled in his late and should be sharp here first off of the claim against statebreds.  3 Crafty Concorde (9-5) will be a factor as he stretches back out.

Race 8 - 6 Open Outcry (6-1) will be part of the late charge that includes 4 They Call Me Giant (5-2), 1 Marvelous Chester (6-1), and 9 Person of Interest (7-2) as 6 Crafty Time (30-1) will set the early pace and falter by the half.

Race 9 - 7 Invocation (5-2) and 2 Nathan Ridge (7-2) will be battling late as a speed duel develops leaving these two a good shot late.

Race 10 - 8 Memphislivesinme (4-1) may end up setting the pace in an early speed devoid field and could steal this one on the front end.  10 Tanzana (6-1), 3 Mississippi Man (5-1), and 4 Triple E (3-1) are all also solid contenders who could force the issue here and be making up ground late.

Race 11 - 8 Final Forest (4-1) and 4 Geeky Gorgeous (8-1) both look to benefit from the weak early pace set by 3 Bombast (6-1) and 9 Arlo (7-2)

Race 12 - 8 Rumble Seat (6-1) makes her 3 year old debut here and does show a decent pedigree for this surface despite having no success last fall; 1 Sweeter Turn (7-2) will benefit from getting back on the turf and the class drop, as 7 Celtic Blessing (5-1) has shown better ability than most over the turf, and 3 Skort (4-1) may find some life with the switch to Bravo.

Good luck all!

Ability (and thoughts on MTH Saturday)

"Success is the maximum utilization of the ability that you have." - Zig Ziglar

How many times have you been beat by a horse that, despite not showing great recent form, seems to either run back to old form or have success against a field that may just not be of the same caliber despite meeting the conditions?  Over the last few weeks I have been struggling to quantify a horse's potential ability versus what its current form suggests.  Couple this factor with my periodic perusal of what new handicapping books are out there that I have not yet had the change to read and we are left with an 'Aha!' moment.

I had recently read 'Total Victory at the Track' by William M. Scott and added his PCR (Performance Class Rating) and ABT (Ability Time) factors to my ever growing sheet (along with a more pared down version that picked more applicable races).  I had found modest results, but it was not a metric of measuring current form versus potential form while looking at finish positions and second call positions versus field size.  On a whim, I ordered Dave Vaccaro's 'The Matrix System of Handicapping' despite seeing the reviews on Paceadvantage that is was more geared for beginners than the more advanced handicapper and found what appears to be a much better suited idea for this application.

I have always contended that a book or systems worth is based on what I can extract out and incorporate into my own thinking or process.  I have also been trying to find that fine line between a ton of work for a profit and trying to keep things simple and still reap some rewards.  Vaccaro does just that.  Within the first few pages, I had a good feeling about his work since he made a statement that holds true to me - "Any good handicapping system takes bits and pieces from other systems and sources and puts them together to make an original product" - that this should or could be part of your established handicapping process, but can be used in addition to it.  As I worked up the parameters in Excel, his target and ability time criteria became another factor on my sheet (next to velocities, AP, EP, SP, FX, E%, PCR, ABT, Turn Times, homegrown speed figures, etc.).  His logic is simple, the math is simple (once you get the hang of it) and does tend to hone in on the top contenders within the field - without requiring a calculator or any kind of conversion chart.  As with anything, I am never happy to take a new figure or angle at face value and am starting to watch it for trends or anomalies.  For instance, when a horse's target value exceeds the rest of the fields ability value, how will that perform?  What percentage of races are won by horses in the top 3 or within 10% of the top value of either ability time or target time?  How does this correlate to my pace analysis?  How does the track variant play into to the times used for comparison?

Vaccaro's book was enough to get me past my Handicapper's Block and on the path to refinement/testing/use-or-abandonment - while I agree that this book would be great for a novice since it does touch on form, pace, class, etc.; the simple analysis used for Ability Time and Target Times is useful as a metric for current versus potential form.  As is usually the case with my process, it is now time to mold, shape, tweak, collect data, test, tweak some more, and challenge my thoughts and the figures for the next few months.  Hopefully I will have some positive findings to report here (as well as back to Dave Vaccaro).

Some thoughts on Saturday's potentially wet Monmouth Park card:
Race 1 -7 Killthemessenger (5-2) and 1 Dan the Irishman (7-2) look to benefit from a speed duel between 5 Dubonnet Red and 6 Exactness.

Race 2 - If it stays on the turf or is run on the main track, 3 Charmingmegan (7-2) and 1 Love Shack (4-1) look to be the plays here as the early pace should fold by the stretch.

Race 3 - 6 Pro Prospect (6-5) should take this field wire to wire, but the value isn't there; 3 Xanthos 3-1 has a chance at the upset

Race 4 - 7 Small Secret (9-2) will be making a late run with 2 Lost Yer Number (3-1) as the early pace of 3 Ruby's Mine (5-2) and 6 Trish's Wish (15-1) falls apart

Race 5 - 8 Blazing Prize (5-2) could take this wire to wire, but 7 Jersey Kiss (7-2) and 4 Ghosts and Legends (5-1) loom late if the early pace is contested.

Race 6 - Wide open; leaning towards 7 Maintain the Magic (3-1) adding the hood with 6 Sweeter Turn (9-2), 2 On Parole (7-2), and 5 Really Charming (4-1); should this go over the main track, watch 9 Sweet Tooth Sweety (5-1) with 7 and 2.

Race 7 - 5 Co Pilot (7-2) needed the last first off of the shelf and should go wire to wire here over 8 I'm On Fire (5-2) and 1 Meatbeau (6-1).

Race 8 - 8 Atavism (9-2) has solid connections and adds the hood after two flat efforts at TAM; 4 Go Bernie Go (7-2) makes his 3yo debut after showing early foot against better; 6 Airgead (4-1) showed some life and looks to move forward here... if over the dirt 2 Vizir (15-1) may flash some early speed and get loose early, 9 Royal Hard Spun (6-1) has shown some recent form, and 3 Write  A Song (4-1) should improve in his 3yo debut.

Race 9 - 8 Dancing Lion (3-1) and 7 Agent Cooper (7-2) both benefit from a weak pace set by 2 Sinatra'srazedbrow (6-1) and 4 Macho Mo Mon (5-1)

Race 10 - 7 The Louisiana Kid (5-1) should be the one to beat regardless of what surface this is run over with a late run by 3 He's Hollywood (3-1) coming up just short.  6 Cocodimama (4-1) and 8 Michal P (9-2) have a chance over the turf for a minor share, and 9 Cool Under Fire (6-1) looks to be a factor over the main track.

Race 11 - 9 Pants On Fire (4-1) will fire first off the shelf and has a class edge over 10 Bowman's Beast (6-1) who needs to prove he belongs at this level.  7 Ruler On Ice (8-1) may figure late over 8 Buffum (3-1) who has yet to prove himself around two turns.

Race 12 - 4 Perfect Lover (4-1) should get loose and go wire to wire, but not without a late rally by 6 Emotional Lady (5-2) and 10 Wildcat Thunder (3-1) that she will need to hold off.

Have a great Memorial Day Weekend!  Good luck all!

Greatness (and Preakness Preview)

"Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them." - William Shakespeare

I had been covering Philly Park for a now defunct horse racing handicapping website and had stumbled across a first time starter in November 2003 and thought he had a leg up in his maiden debut which became just another one of my selections on a seemingly normal card.  He won by an impressive 7-3/4 lengths and earned a note to follow this one in my marble composition pad of charts and trip notes.  A few weeks later, this horse showed up again, fresh off of that MSW win and entered in a minor stakes - this time he destroyed the field by 15 lengths!  I knew this horse was something special and as he continued on, winning for fun at Aqueduct in the Count Fleet Stakes and later a pair of wins at Oaklawn, the Rebel and Arkansas Derby - I knew I had my Derby selection locked up early that year, before even seeing the entire field and post draw - Smarty Jones.

Smarty Jones was the last horse I honestly felt had a real shot at the Triple Crown.  Maybe I was bias since I had watched his development and was so deeply entrenched with the connections on the Philly, Delaware, and NJ circuits, that I felt this horse was special.  Fast forward 9 years - spending less time watching replays, making trip notes, and tracking circuits as I once did - I had analyzed the Derby and felt there would be a big late rush - but to figure out which horse had the leg up?  I had figured Revolutionary had an edge (picking Orb as my third choice), but watched that stretch run (almost how I had figured it) and watching that w-i-d-e move felt we had a real exceptional specimen moving forward.  He is the horse to beat on Saturday, and may be the closest thing to a Triple Crown threat since my heart (and handicapping) was behind Smarty Jones.

I think the Preakness sets up this way - 3 Titletown Five, 6 Oxbow, and 8 Governor Charlie all vie early - taking the pace through the half mile plus, 2 Goldencents will keep himself forwardly placed but finds himself a bit flat in the stretch.  Of the late runner - I see 7 Will Take Charge and 9 Itsmyluckyday being a bit short, with 1 Orb making a huge run again, 4 Departing coming of a doubly wide effort in the Illinois Derby rallying, and 5 Mylute running big off a wide and troubled trip.  Ultimately, I think Orb gets the best trip of the solid closers and will find himself 2/3rds of the way to the history books.  Underneath, I would include Mylute and Departing with the big late moves and figure that Will Take Charge or Governor Charlie could round out the superfecta.

In a way, I almost need to pass this race - while my analysis points to Orb, my heart wants to see a horse that has shown this kind of heart and ability find his place in the record books - it couldn't happen to nicer connections.  In the age of lightly race horses who seem to be protected for future breeding interests or injured more than the Yankees starting lineup - it seems that with each passing year the chances of a prospect being able to complete the prep season and be around to gut out three hard fought victories gets less and less.  Is this Orb's destiny?  Does Shug have this one conditioned to stay in form this weekend and again in the Belmont?  Will he get a clean trip?  Only time will tell, but here is for hoping that we again get to witness history, at least before Derek Jeter is back in the starting lineup.

Here's to hoping for 2013!  Good luck all!

Brand New Ending (aka Opening Day at Monmouth Park '13)

“Although no one can go back and make a brand new start, anyone can start from now and make a brand new ending.”  - Carl Bard

The last few days have been filled with great anticipation knowing the Monmouth Park 2013 meet kicks off tomorrow.  Fellow bloggers and twitter followers/followees have been buzzing about the upcoming meet.  This time last year we were stuck with 4njbets, now we are all using TVG.  Last year the racing season was in doubt, this year it is back and Monmouth has some plans for the future.

It has been a bit of an up and down year so far (down when it mattered most - Monmouth SSC#3); but a solid effort with the Atlantic City turf meet and a renewed interest (and a lot of hours fooling around with data files and excel) have me excited for the Monmouth meet this year.  Not only is the track 5.4 miles door-to-door from my office (anyone up for a lazy Friday afternoon in the picnic area?), I am also more excited this year about the beginning of this meet and feeling positive on how I will fare by the end than the last couple meets.

Monmouth has always been my bread-and-butter track.  I learned a great deal about racing and handicapping from my late uncle 'Dutch' at his home away from home over some summers in my formative teen years.  I remember taking the early morning backstretch tour with my family and watching my grandmother bet $2 to show on every gray (amazingly, I don't think she ever lost a bet).  I have marble notebooks filled with charts, trip notes, and other figures from 2000 -2006 (remote work assignments and a hectic schedule ended that).  I have great memories of getting to the 2000 Haskell Day late and sharing the small seat of my cooler with my new wife - only to get on a good run of Rolling Pick 3's and walk out of the track that day with over $1,000 in profits for the day (not too shabby, but I followed that up two weeks later with another $800+).  Lazy Friday's when some of the other RU grads from my office and I would cut out early, grab a cooler of beer and a few Tastee Subs (Edison, NJ - if you haven't had one, you haven't had a good sub) and make a few wagers and discuss horses, bad jokes, and old work stories over the course of a gorgeous afternoon in the sun.  The track has changed a bit - a couple years of cheap claimers and short fields, giving the feel of a Philly Park card (pre-casino); followed by the exclusive meet; then back to what is now the norm, lost a bit of consistency of the knowledge one could use year to year for playing the horseman's niches.

2013 is a new start.  The meet starts without the drama and questions of last year.  Some new faces at the meet, but it great to see the horsemen back out supporting the Jersey Shore once again.  Where my old data tracking is replaced by Jim Mazur's Monmouth Handicapper (time better spent with the family), many of his observations and trends hold true year after year.

I won't get to look at Sunday's card, but will leave you with a few I am considering for Saturday's opener... 

Race 3 - 2 Back To Class 6-1
Race 4 - 3 Firsttotheline 5-2
Race 6 - 4 Ingenuity 9-2
Race 7 - 10 Pelican Cove 5-2
Race 10 - 7 Flying Kaz 7-2
Race 12 - 2 David The Great 9-2

Rest assured on the off weekday during the meet, I will make my usual trip over on my lunch hour for nothing more than a hot dog and beer while basking in the sun in the benches by the finish line despite the strange looks I sometimes get and count on finding me in the picnic area on some lazy Friday afternoon ready to talk ponies and tell bad jokes over a cold refreshing beverage - feel free to stop by and join me!

Expectations (and thoughts on the Derby)

"It's so much easier to have no expectations than to have big ones." - Ann Brashares

It is that time of the year again - the first Saturday of May is upon us...  everyone is buzzing with Derby Fever.  I confess that I have looked at the race and will offer my two cents like everyone else, but this year I am undeterred by my traditional poor showing in the biggest race of the year.  Typically I have no expectations of cashing a winning ticket on this race - but this year will be different.

The last month has been a total whirlwind on many levels.  I took a few weeks off of regular handicapping to refresh my approach and deal with upcoming home improvement projects, with the exception of the short Atlantic City Race Course meet.  Work has gotten busier than it has been since the pre-Recession era and I am taking on a few new roles and responsibilities on that front - a welcome change of pace to the daily grind (well, in addition to my usual daily grind anyway).

My software is progressing while still making some minor tweaks as I find problems and getting ready to rework my track-to-track adjustments.  I still need to clean up the final product and make some of the figures a little easier to compare against each other (velocities, EP, SP, AP).  Some of the correlations between the figures and certain race conditions are starting to grow more obvious and profitable, yet still require further tracking before I make any great claims here...

On to the big one...
Saturday 5/4 - Churchill Downs - Race 11 - Kentucky Derby G1 - 1-1/4mi for 3 year olds

Rather than go horse by horse like I would normally do here, I am just going to cut to how I feel the pace will set up and highlight the horses...

As is always expected, there will be a mad dash to the lead (and some serious jostling and traffic) - here I expect to see 2 Oxbow, 6 Mylute, 7 Giant Finish, and 13 Falling Sky bolt to the lead and set the usual torrid fractions.  8 Goldencents and 14 Verrazano will try to be close and sit a few lengths off of the pace through the first six furlongs.  As they hit the far turn, the speed will start to falter and the pack will start to make a move.  I expect 8 Goldencents to still be a factor through the stretch, but he'll be no match for the late runs by 3 Revolutionary, 5 Normandy Invasion, 9 Overanalyze, and 16 Orb.  Of the four late runners I see being a factor late, I give an edge to 3 Revolutionary.  My order of finish - 3 Revolutionary - 5 Normandy Invasion - 16 Orb - 9 Overanalyze.

I'll probably throw a few bucks across the board on 3 Revolutionary - I can't imagine his odds dipping below 6-1 with this field.

Good luck all!