Insanity and the San Carlos G2 Preview

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” – Albert Einstein

As someone who has been passionately handicapping and enjoying the races since well before my adult life, I find that every so often I get stuck in that ‘handicapping rut’.  I fall into complacency with analysis and end up making the same mistake consistently.  Much like a pro athlete trying to get out of a slump, I find myself trying different things: handicapping a track where I used to have success (granted, that was years ago) and find that amazing in those years that the bias, jockey colony, trainers, etc. have all changed; re-reading a book that helped to hone my focus on a particular aspect; taking some time off to review data; and analyze both the ‘big picture’ and individual components I use in my daily handicapping.  Do these help to break the slump?  Not usually.

However, it is time to put the parts back together and get the engine running as I prepare for the Monmouth SSC#3 on March 30^th (schedule permitting).  It is time to get my head back in the game.   I look back a year to see what I was doing differently.  I went into last year’s Monmouth SSC Qualifer well organized and confident in my spot angle plays, my software outputs, and my newly revised interest in pace analysis.  I look to where I am now – still organized, but second-guessing what I felt were many of my ‘givens’, I haven’t touched my software since October (either modified or used it), and a current lack of confidence in developing race shapes for late runners (early pace is still solid). 

I know I still have a lot of work to do (on many fronts), but have added resources for pedigree and class, and have been working on some new angle spot plays (naturally, pace is a secondary check before those become automatic).  Much like hitting golf balls at the driving range, where you try to develop a healthy ‘muscle memory’ of your swing to avoid consistently making the same mistake, I need to work on developing a healthy ‘mental memory’ of my handicapping approach.  Different classes, surfaces, distances, age groups, etc. all require a slightly different, yet fundamentally same approach.  Quantifying the factors I look for/review/dismiss and putting that in some order should help to make a routine that ensures that I look at the right factors for the right spots, much like at work how I approach a new project – from setting up the files to actually assembling my data and producing the final report.   I will be developing that personal checklist over the next week or so… and hopefully, in the words of Susan Powter, I can “stop the insanity!!!”

This week’s analysis:  Santa Anita – Race 8 – San Carlos Stakes G2 – 7f – 4yo&up

1 Comma To The Top (4-1) – pushed uncomfortably along at a hot pace in his last effort in the Palos Verdes again several of the same that are in here today.  Difference today is that the hot pace is not that likely and this race will set up for a horse on or close to the lead.  His subsequent works have been sharp and I would expect a solid front-running effort here.

2 Capital Account (4-1) – would prefer the poly-track, but did clear N2X over this course.  The pace does not set up well for a closer here, so figure he’ll be fighting for a minor share late as he runs out of real estate in the stretch drive.

3 Justin Phillip (8-1) – forwardly place and did fight a hot pace last out to hit the board as a weak favorite in the Palos Verdes.  Somewhat slower pace will allow him to be closer to the lead early, but just appears to be outclassed with this field.

4 Canonize (15-1) – would prefer a slower pace and probably if this race was run around two turns.  Shouldn’t be much of a factor here.

5 Midnight Transfer (3-1) – toss his two efforts in routes and this one shows a solid progression from breaking his maiden and a minor stakes over this course last year against 3 year olds to solid late run against a crumbling early pace last out to pass the N2X hurdle against older horses.  Expect him to be a factor late from just off the pace.  Definite contender.

6 Sahara Sky (6-1) – took advantage of a hot pace as a horse I had totally dismissed for lack of class (despite the potential of being the lone closer) in the Palos Verdes. I am still not sold that this one has the class to contend and that the pace will set up for him this time around.  Expect a late move by him to fall short.

7 The Lumber Guy (5-2) – has a G1 win and was runner-up in the Breeder’s Cup Sprint last fall.  Malibu was a disaster as the heavy favorite.  I expect the pace to be a little faster than he prefers and expect that Gomez may try to shoot for the lead early with him in this spot.  I am inclined to think he takes a shot and is short late. 

8 Drill (12-1) – has had a couple of poor starts lately and doesn’t seem to be in top form.  I would like to see him have a good showing against older horses and improved form before giving him any consideration.

Now for the Reader’s Digest version of how I see this one setting up…  1 Comma To The Top sets the lead with 7 The Lumber Guy being sent early.  1 Comma To The Top can duel and holds off the bid by 7 The Lumber Guy, who starts to lose ground before the top of the stretch.  Expect to see late runs by 2 Capital Account, 3 Justin Phillip, 5 Midnight Transfer, and 6 Sahara Sky, but all will be just short late.

Good luck all!

Don't Reinvent the Wheel... (and thoughts on the Very One G3)

"Don't reinvent the wheel, just realign it." - Michael D'Angelo

It has been a while since I posted last and a lot has been happening.  Kudos to NJHorseplayer for staying on top of the TVG takeover of 4NJBets and all the ramifications that has (both good and bad) for the weekend warriors here in the great Garden State.

I took a much needed break, not completely by choice (work has been insanely busy), but also in part to take a step back and re-evaluate a few things I had been working on.  I found that I have let pace become too big of a part of decision making process and had let that trump class which was ultimately leading to some poor race modeling.  Likewise, I started evaluating a few new 'situations' regarding certain factors (horses third off of layoff, trying to define hidden form, etc.).  I realized that I have a lot of good tools and solid angles/methods/analysis, but I just need to get back on track and do what has always worked best for me.

Much like NJHorseplayer, I do see an upside to the TVG takeover of 4NJBets - likely added opportunities for NJ based horse players to find additional means to qualify for the NHC, if you are willing to shell out the $19.95 a month an accessible bank of replay, and hopefully a much more reliable and consistent wagering platform - however only time will tell just how seamless and efficient the new site is.

Back to facing some of my 'fears'...  My 'Race of the Day' for Saturday is the Very One G3 at Gulfstream (Race 8 - 1-3/8mi Turf - 4yo&up F&M).

Rather than go entrant by entrant, here is a quick snapshot on how I see this marathon shaping up...  Weak early pace contested by 1 Starformer (2-1), 5 Closing Range (3-1), and 2 Seanchai (8-1).  Early pace will not hold and the late closers will make a run late - 8 Kadaya (4-1) will likely make the big closing bid for top honors.  1 Starformer (2-1) should still be a factor late, but 4 Game Fair (6-1) will also be moving late from way back

8 Kadaya (4-1) has been solid in clearing her N1X and N2X conditions after being moderately placed in France; third off of layoff and this mare is sharp! 

Likely plays:  WP8; Ex 8 with 1,4,5,7

Good luck all!

Dreaming of Warmer Weather (Florida Oaks Preview)

Another cold, busy Saturday for the Jersey Capper.  The 60 degree spell this week was a tease after the arctic conditions the week prior...  it was nice to roll down the windows on my way to work and listen to Sinatra sing "Summer Wind".

I do want to wish fellow NJ bloggers and NHC hopefuls (Redrockorbust and NJ Horseplayer) the best of luck in Saturday's Monmouth SSC#1.  I am sure both will have a great insight and review of the day posted shortly afterwards...  I'll be seeing you guys in March at either #2 or #3...

I actually took a bit of a break from handicapping this week, granted a stomach virus will do that to you, but needed to step back and take a look at what I am doing and if it is still working... the hood's open and the engine is half taken apart right now as I go back and try to correct some of the bad habits I have developed with late pace analysis and as I embark on my 'Quest to Find a Capper'.  By 'capper', I am referring to a 'cap' horse in a contest (typically payouts are capped at $42 to win / $22 to place or some value near those totals).  It is tough playing devil's advocate after the fact with comments like - the horse had beaten one foe in his last 10 starts and lost those 10 starts by 345 combined lengths, moves up in class today, and retains the worst jock on the circuit...  This is going to be a work in progress that I will write about in the future...

Back to the matter at hand... my feature race of this weekend will be Tampa Bay Race 7 - 1-1/16mi over the turf Florida Oaks G3 for 3 year old fillies.

1 Cindy's Casino (20-1) - lackluster effort in minor stakes try over the Calder turf - PASS.

2 Rusty Slipper (8-1) - shows two solid closing efforts in two lifetime starts over the turf here, but will likely need to make up a ton of ground late with a quicker pace anticipated here.  Not likely to get up for the win, but could be a factor late.

3 Wave Theory (7-2) - solid effort last out in an open stakes and was spotted at this level over a yielding course at Belmont.  She shows a decent work pattern and moderate connections, but again the quicker early pace does work against her chances here.

4 Raven's Rockette (30-1) - not so fast to dismiss as she has shown some ability over the grass and her sire does produce a high percentage of turf winners, but still think she is outclassed here.

5 Caraquista (30-1) - PASS

6 Tapicat (3-1) - Strong back to back wins and showed a ton of speed in that last effort.  Inclined to think that she does get bothered here by a weak blast early from a foe and may be used a little bit too early.  Definite contender, but a beatable favorite.

7 Cotton Pickin (30-1) - PASS

8 Floral Sky (12-1) - Forwardly placed on the dirt but has shown nothing.  Lone turf start was a solid effort and she does get Contreras back in the irons.  Pedigree does fall a little short, but wouldn't be surprised to see her near the pace early.

9 Mariel n Kathy (9-2) - Open stakes winner over the Belmont turf in the fall, but has not shown much improvement since.  She adds the hood today and expect Espinoza to push her early on the lead which may disrupt Tapicat and set up a late runner.

10 Kitten's Dumplings (5-1) - toss out her non-turf start and she looks like a contender if she can bounce back off of that last effort at Gulfstream.  Stakes win two back wasn't exactly the toughest field though, looking elsewhere as the pace doesn't seem to fit her style.

11 Toasting (15-1) - had some trouble starting late last year and works don't show any gate work.  Pedigree is a bit lacking.  PASS.

12 Jadira (6-1) - Nice closing move last out to break maiden in her debut, decent work pattern suggest the other Casse entry may be improving with the big step up here.  A weak quicker pace will work to her advantage here.

I see 6 Tapicat breaking to the lead with a blast from 9 Mariel n Kathy which will likely disrupt her pace since she will hang for a while before fading.  6 Tapicat will have been used a bit early which sets up late runs from 3 Wave Theory and 12 Jadira.  I give 3 Wave Theory a slight edge late.

Probably bets:  Ex 3,12 with 2,3,6,10,12
Confidence - 1 of 5 - Field is still developing and improving - tough to have a ton of confidence on exactly how this one shapes up.

Good luck all!

Sick as a Cat... (Preview of the Sweetest Chant)

I always wondered why people say that they are as sick as a dog when, in my case yesterday, I was more sick like a cat - 18 hours in bed with randomly getting up to go to another room.  Regardless, stomach virus mostly out of the system, I can resume my handicapping...

After missing a chance to thoroughly review all of the great preps and action for Saturday, I turn my weekly race analysis to Gulfstream for Sunday for the 10th Race - The Sweetest Chant Stakes for 3 year old fillies at 1 mile over the turf.

1 Leinan (6-1) - stretches out back on the turf off of a long layoff where she last won a minor stakes over the all weather surface at Woodbine.  Decent works leading up to this race, but inclined to think that the early pace will be too highly contested and she will likely be a part of that duel up front early.  Outside chance.

2 Jadira (5-1) - Impressively won her debut over this course at a price with two decent conditioning works since.  She steps right into stakes competition here, but this field is not that strong... willing to give her a pass for only have her maiden win to speak of; look for a late run out of her today.  Contender.

3 Discreet Marq (5-1) - stakes winner over the Aqueduct turf in the fall, but looses Trujillo to #6 here.  She does have a solid turf pedigree, but will likely end up in a battle for the lead early and be short late.

4 Caroline Thomas (6-1) - Lose Castellano to #5 after breaking her maiden and passing the N1X condition last out.  Her works are sharp and pedigree is one of the best in the field and has the best closing kick of the late runners in this field.  Contender.

5 Premier Steps (5-2) - deserving favorite makes her 3 year old debut after a troubled trip in her US debut last out.  Graded stakes placed in Europe as a 2 year old and showed a lot of heart trying to make up ground late in last at Hollywood.  A clean trip gets her a win here.

6 Mystic Love (7-2) - beat the boys last out, but with a weak pace.  Look for a bounce downwards here and trouble with a slightly faster and tougher pace.

7 I O Ireland (15-1) - pace was too fast for her last out; expect the same sort of pace here today.  Pass.

8 Heading to Toga (10-1) - Showed nothing in her last two efforts over the turf after beating state-breds at the Spa last August.  Expect her to be sent early and get used on the pace.

The race seems to set up best for the late runners - 2 Jadira, 4 Caroline Thomas, and 5 Premier Steps.  Early speed will likely burn itself out here as 1 Leinan, 3 Discreet Marq, and 8 Heading to Toga will likely lock up early. 

Likely bets:  Ex Box 2,4,5

Good luck all!

The Journey to Victory (and the Kittens Joy Stakes Preview)

"A mind focused on fear and doubt cannot focus on the journey to victory." - Mike Jones

The Palos Verdes started to set up like I thought with Comma To The Top and Private Zone getting out to the lead early - that's about where my pace model stopped working.  Instead of Comma To The Top besting Private Zone; it was vice versa...  The outclassed closer I had dismissed (but NJHorseplayer hadn't), took advantage of some torrid fractions (21.3 and 43.3) and returning a handsome $45.20/$14.40/$5.00. 

I guess the question in my head is now not when you can predict a duel, but when can you predict that a speed duel will go faster than a horse's "comfort zone"?  Had the pace been a little slower (say 2C in 44.3?), would Comma To The Top benefited versus a pure front runner in Private Zone?

Sunday finds me again chasing my aversions and landing on an open stakes race for 3 year old fillies on the turf.  Generally, I prefer dirt sprints, yet have had some of my larger (value) scores on the turf.  My enthusiasm for turf races, especially younger horses, tend to be minimal since there are generally few relevant running lines for comparison and many questions linger (at least for me) regarding the current form of a dirt to turf or all-weather to turf move.  Class tends to be a bit of an anomaly to me as well, since claiming prices on the turf don't always relate well to the dirt, when was the last time you saw a $5k turf maiden claimer?

Gulfstream Race 10 - Kittens Joy Stakes - 1-1/16mi TURF - 3yo

1 Saturday Special (15-1) - had a decent stalking effort over this course last out, however the probable pace seems to work against him here - did clear the N1X hurdle in the slop two back, however being offered up for a price last out doesn't bode well here.  Look for him to make a late run, but be short at the wire.

2 Summit County (6-1) - cleared the N1X condition last out with a nice stalking trip and has been forwardly placed as a 2 year old having set the early pace in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf before weakening.  Look for another late run here, but expect that the early pace doesn't set up to leave him too much time to run late. 

3 Redwood Kitten (15-1) - needed to be stretched out last race, but will not get loose on the lead like that here.  He will likely blast to the lead early and fold under the pressure.

4 Charming Kitten (2-1) - is a very deserving favorite here.  Toss his troubled trip over the polytrack at Keeneland and he has chased some solid competition over the turf at Saratoga and last out over this course.  Connections are as solid as they come, he is a serious contender here today - but the value may not be there.

5 Fire Guard (3-1) - won his maiden going wire to wire last out, however will not likely get that easy of a trip here.  Look for him to lock up early with 3 Redwood Kitten and be short late.

6 Prado Cat (12-1) - also took his maiden last out going wire to wire after a nice pressing effort with a little trouble the race prior.  He will likely be making a move late and can not be discounted here.

7 Bambazonki (6-1) - easily cleared the N2L test last out showing that he could not only take the front but duel as well.  The pace will be a little quicker here and am not inclined to think that he will have the energy late.

8 Flying Bird (4-1) - made a big move last out to clear the N1X condition after a two month layoff.  His versatility to handle a quicker or slower pace will be key here as he tests the stakes level.  Serious contender.

Bets:  WP8; Ex 4,8 with 1,2,4,6,8
Confidence: 2 of 5 - young 3 year olds that are still developing and finding their form; many have already shown a preference for the footing and the pace is always a huge variable with this age group.

Good luck all!

All Things are Difficult Before They are Easy (and thoughts on the Palos Verdes G2)

“All things are difficult before they are easy” – Thomas Fuller

Time to start facing my ‘handicapping fears’.  Alright, not really fears but aversions.  One race type I usually dread is graded stakes for older horses.  In keeping with my resolutions and needing to broaden my potential plays in any contest (mandatory or open selections), I am facing my fears/aversions head on this year, so I will be deviating from the Brisnet Race of the Day and going with a race I would normally shrug, roll my eyes, and pass over…

Saturday 1/19 – Santa Anita Race 5 – Palos Verdes Stakes G2 – 4yo&up (one of the featured races in the Public Handicapper Contest this week)

1 Apriority (8-1) – last won a G3 effort as a 4 year old at Gulfstream after a poor start.  His 2012 campaign was lackluster, but the switch to Baffert’s barn may be a reason to take notice.  Late works are sharp, but inclined to pass on a horse that has already likely peaked and will be working against the track bias and a hot early pace.

2 Drill (4-1) – was a G1 winner versus 2 year olds at Del Mar and a G2 winner over this course against 3 year olds in the San Vincente last year and is the other Baffert entry.  He had a rough trip last out in the Malibu versus 3 year olds and didn’t get much support in that effort either.  Hard to back here without seeing any marked improvement or tests against older horses.

3 Canonize (5-1) – minor stakes winner on the dirt course here around two turns (4 of 6 lifetime at Santa Anita, however three of those efforts were over the polytrack).  He seems to be a bit outclassed and likely will have a hard time overcoming the fast pace anticipated here. 

4 Sahara Sky (12-1) – has cleared the N2X condition and has not shown much in his lone stakes effort.  Pass.

5 Comma To The Top (3-1) – has shown some versatility over his career – routes, sprints, dirt, turf, polytrack; having won a couple of restricted stakes last year and a G3 over this course.  Connections are not that strong, but the horse should make up for that (Miller wins 6% of graded stakes races he enters).  He appears to be in to form and should have a relatively easy time getting loose on the lead here or rating off of a quick burst from another.  I like the chances of him going wire to wire or dueling a weaker foe here.

6 Private Zone (5-2) – Grade 1 winner in Panama, yet that has not equated to victory here in the US.  Solid runner up efforts in his last four stakes efforts, even against older at Hollywood Park two back.  He has the need to be loose and clear on the lead which may be asking too much of him here.  Look for him to challenge Comma To The Top but be short late.

7 Justin Phillip (7-2) – was forwardly placed as a 4 year old, but couldn’t win anything other than a N3X optional claimer.  Appears outclassed and the pace seems a little too hot for him to handle here, but will likely be making a run late.

So here is how I see this race breaking down.  At the break, 5 and 6 rush up to the lead, 6 will try to establish himself early with 5 right off the pace.  By the top of the stretch, I would expect 5 to be overtaking the 6 or staring his rally with 6 fading.  Look for a late run led by 1 and 7 with 3 following along.  At the wire it is 5 with 7 and 1.

Likely bets:  W5; Ex 5,7 with 1,3,5,7

Confidence:  3 of 5 – pace seems to set up well, class appears to be fairly well delineated

Good luck all!

Preview of the Hal's Hope G3 and other thoughts...

Mucho Mas Macho!!!  Fifty Proof did exactly what I thought he would do... for most of the race anyway...  I went against Mucho Mas Macho thinking that the big closer would not fare well with the speed here and that the track was biased against him...  couldn't have been any further from the truth today...

On a positive note, it turned out to be a pretty decent Saturday after all.  After reviewing the Aqueduct scratches, I found the late Pick 4 playable.  While time (and life) did not permit any kind of analysis here, I did tweet out my play.  72 combinations (R6 - 4,10,13,14 // 6,9 // 2,3,5 // 2,3,9) which for a $2 ticket returned $569.00. 

On to Sunday's Brisnet Race of the Day....

Gulfstream - Race 10 - 1mi - Hal's Hope S. G3 - 4yo&up

1 Swagger Jack (15-1) - Speedster is outclassed here.  He does figure to be near the lead early, but I don't see him handling the pressure well.  PASS.

2 Associate (6-1) - He made one heck of a run in the Bold Ruler up at Belmont, but this former $35k claimer will likely find the fast pace too much to overcome here.  Could be around late for a minor share.

3 Good Morning Diva (20-1) - Not his preferred distance at one-turn.  PASS.

4 Soldat (6-1) - Fountain of Youth winner over this course two years ago, but 'what have you done for me lately'?  Not inclined to think he does much here around one turn and he seems better suited for the turf.  PASS.

5 Delegation (4-1) - Is in good form here and will benefit from the one turn mile.  He shows a solid work pattern and can duel after running respectably with older horses as a 3 year old.  I like his chances on the front or just off the pace.

6 Csaba (5-2) - Not sure how well he will like one turn, but does have the class to hang here.  He did win big in open stakes company last out and a bounce may be coming here.

7 Scatman (6-1) - He was forwardly placed as a 3 year old, but did clear the N3X condition last fall against older horses.  Last out may have been due to the fact that he likes one turn, however the probably pace seems a little too fast for him here.

8 Cool Blue Red Hot (20-1) - Did run well in this race last year at a price, however nothing since.  Seemed outclassed then, seems outclassed now.  PASS.

9 Pants on Fire (5-1) - Did win an optional claimer over this course at this distance with a solid resume of open and graded stakes, however likely falls victim to a hot pace here. 

10 Pool Play (15-1) - Double the distance and I'll give this marathoner a look.  PASS.

I expect to see 5 Delegation contend with the early pace here, possibly set weakly by 1 Swagger Jack or 7 Scatman.  6 Csaba and 9 Pants on Fire will probably try to make a move late, but 5 Delegation should have enough left to hold them off late.

Probable Plays:  WP5; Ex 5,6 with 2,5,6,9
Confidence:  2 of 5 - The one turn mile is a quirky distance at times, pace profiles don't always translate well from two turn races or shorter sprints.

Good luck all!