Preview of the Ft. Lauderdale G2 (and Other Ramblings)

Recap of Friday's 7th at the Fair Grounds:

As expected, the race was taken off the turf.  The pace did set up as expected, the early speed did not hold up and the winner came from off the pace.  When you have a race down to a 50/50 choice, you have an 80% chance of being wrong.... My top choice based in value didn't fire, but my secondary selection (Make a Fortune) made a solid late run to win as the 2-1 favorite.

Saturday takes us east - to Gulfstream (and some better weather!)

Race 10 - 1-1/16 mi Turf - Ft. Lauderdale Stakes G2 - 4yo&up

1 Vertiformer (12-1) - runner up in the McKnight G2 at Calder in a marathon; otherwise not much else impresses here - PASS

2 Nikki's Sandcastle (5-1) - former claimer that won two open stakes over this course and has been close up over the polytrack at Keeneland in the Fayette - will need to run the race of his life to win here, but certainly will be a factor late trying to close.

3 Fifty Proof (6-1) - came back off of a long layoff last out to take a restricted stakes north of the border. G3 winner and G2 contender in the past shows a decent set of works and is likely to improve and be near the lead the entire way.

4 Dominus (3-1) - solid turf pedigree and only two turf starts, including a G2 win at Saratoga.  Formidable favorite here and can fire off the shelf.  Definite contender.

5 Hollinger (4-1) - Forwardly placed over the last year but "always a bridesmaid, never a bride"... did get the place in this race last year via DQ at a nice price - wouldn't be surprised if he gets up for show here.

6 Quick Wit (20-1) - Outclassed, poor recent form, and never shown dominance over the turf - PASS

7 Sky Blazer (10-1) - Has cleared the N3X condition, but has struggled at this level.  He does like this surface, but he is outclassed again here.  PASS.

8 Big Blue Kitten (6-1) - This former claimer was shipped overseas for a G1 at Ascot, however seems outclassed again here.  PASS.

9 Mucho Mas Macho (20-1) - Outclassed and would need to make a big run late; bias here works against this one...  PASS.

10 Tiz Sardonic Joe (12-1) - Just cleared the N2X condition with a mediocre closing effort against open stakes company at the Spa.  Decent pedigree, but has not proven he belongs at this level.  PASS.

11 Empire Builder (15-1) - Forwardly placed with decent showings in open company stakes, however is outclassed at this level and will be flat late.  PASS.

MTO12 Pants on Fire (5-2) - Will Scratch.

The pace seems to set up well for #3 Fifty Proof who has proven he can take it wire to wire, duel, or press over his career.  He seems to be the class of the field and did win easily in first off the layoff of over 17 months - look for an improved effort here.

Probable Plays:  WP3; Ex 3,4 - 2,3,4,5,11
Confidence: 3 of 5 - Class and pace seem to be pretty well defined here

Good luck all!

A Tale of Two Cities

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.” – Charles Dickens

For the Brisnet ‘Race of the Day’ Contest, I guess we’ll pass on the former and go with the latter on Grove City (Beulah) and New Orleans (Fair Grounds) as there have been two successive days of cancellations, making it the age of foolishness, epoch of incredulity, the season of Darkness, and the winter of despair with nothing in front of us (I’ll pass on speculation on where I am directly going)!   I do seriously wonder if the folks who select the races for these contests actually check the weather first.  It does remind me of a NHC freebie event over a year ago where they had included the Fair Grounds with a nasty weather forecast and the last 3 legs (of the 4 legs carded from FG) were cancelled due to weather – poor planning.  Granted not as much is riding on the line here, but on a positive note I have worked out a few glitches with my blog formatting.

Back to the Fair Grounds for Friday’s Contest Race – again originally slated for the turf, but I’ll figure this one over the main track.

Friday 1/11 - FG – Race 7 – AlwN1X – 4yo&up – 5-1/2f (originally scheduled for the turf)

1 Bravo Habibi (5-2) – he has been knocking around with higher priced claimers with moderate success, however I see him getting caught up in a speed duel on the frontend and not having much left late.

2 Purgenality (12-1) – Unsuccessful in advancing from this condition, should run if this comes off the turf.  Big effort in the slop at Ellis seems to be a bit of a fluke, not likely here.

3 Royal Production (6-1) – Will show some early speed and tire by the stretch, not likely to hang on long enough to hit the board.  May be a negative factor on the early pace.  PASS.

4 Ali Maccool (8-1) – Late bloomer as a 4yo who didn’t hit the track until November.   Last race was a solid pressing effort and does show a couple of solid works since.  Breeding suggest some ability over an off track.  Definite contender as the early speed will be challenged here and likely fail.

5 Make A Fortune (9-5) – has two solid polytrack efforts to his credit and will be looking to make a big late run here.  Definite contender.

6 Alumni (8-1) – outclassed as he switches back to the dirt.

7 Harbor Junior (10-1) – needs to be loose on the lead, not likely to get that here as he figures to try to be part of the early pace and fades away.

8 Darkness Love (10-1) – outclassed.  PASS.

9 Hudson’s Creed (8-1) – outclassed speedster who likes to be loose on the lead.  PASS.

This race looks to set up with a lot of early speed battling it out early.  The winner is likely to come from just off the pace of make a closing move late.  The horses that fit this style are 2, 4, 5, & 8.  8 appears to be outclassed and 2 does not seem likely.  Of the remaining two selections, I am going to go with the likely value on #4 Ali Maccool to sit right off the pace and be around late. 

Probable plays:  WP4; Ex 4,5 with 1,4,5
Confidence:  Assuming there aren’t too many important scratches here, 3 of 5.  Pace and class appear to be fairly apparent and most of the field looks likely to remain despite the surface switch.

Good luck all!

I Couldn't Lose Today!!!!

....and I couldn't win either!!!   Day One saw Beulah get rained out after Race 1.  I guess that is like getting a pardon from the governor!

 Day two of posting analysis of the Brisnet Race of the Day Contest again has me leaving my ‘comfort zone’, well not really…  Since there is a likely 2 to 3 inches of rain that will fall tomorrow in advance of this race, I am going to assume that it will be taken off the turf.  Traditionally I have tried to avoid turf races as much as I try to avoid Beulah Park, but when they come off the turf, it is usually an entirely different race.

Fair Grounds – Race 8 – 5-1/2f (Scheduled for the turf, but we’ll assume it is going to the main track) – AlwN1X for F&M 4 yo&up

 1 Just Say Hey (8-1) – lone non-turf sprint start was at Keeneland versus 15k maiden claimers, pace will likely be too fast for her to put together a late run here. 

2 Scarlet Tribute (8-1) – 6 year old mare has been knocking around this level for a while but has not made it over the hump yet.  She has been forwardly placed of late at the statebred level with signs of deteriorating form, but she is not too likely to move forward here.

3 Great Bluff (20-1) – makes a big step up off of the claim and a long layoff.  Outclassed and not well suited in this spot.  PASS.

4 Divine Providence (5-1) – Fired off the shelf against statebreds two back (placed second by DQ); came back strong last out after losing the whip late.  Goes back to a more comfortable 5-1/2f here and could get loose on the lead, otherwise she should be able to duel and hold on.  Breeding doesn’t necessarily suggest handling the slop, but early speed should govern.  Top choice.

5 Jealousofmyboogie (7-2) – Lightly raced and off of a long layoff with a decent work pattern.  Likely pace may be a bit too fast of they elect to run her over the main track.  Contender if she does run.

6 Wild Dixie (20-1) – may flash some early speed before tiring; not likely enough to upset #4 here.  PASS.

7 Dixie Dreamin (12-1) – two flat efforts at Mountaineer after some lukewarm efforts over the all weather track at Presque Isle – not likely to have enough late kick here.

8 Deferred (9-2) – won for fun in debut versus 30k stock at Hoosier in the slop.  Pace will be faster and will not allow her to get loose on the lead.

9 Minestrone (4-1) – Lone dirt effort was fairly solid a year ago at Gulfstream.  Long layoff before last subpar effort followed by another two months off  with a mediocre work tab lead me to think that she will need a race before she is ready to contend.

10 French Breeze (10-1) – has shown nothing lately.  PASS.

AE11 Wire Me Bessie (8-1) – failed in a duel last race over 6 months ago.  She shows two solid works leading up to this race and has raced well against open stakes company as a 3 year old.  She will likely need to get loose, but likely locks up with #4 if she runs, not sure she will be able to hold on.

AE12 Sunlight Cat (8-1) – may have topped out in the claiming ranks.  PASS.

MTO13 Fontanne (6-1) – flashed some early speed before going on the shelf for the last 5 months, while regular, her works are not impressive.  PASS,

MTO14 Totally Tucker (5-1) – overcame a rough start last out to manage second, expect her to be closer to the pace here and will likely be around if the early pace fails.

MTO15 Urbanini (6-1) – Big closing move two back to break her maiden, however she’ll be outclassed with this group.

Opinion – hard to say with the likely scratches and changes; but I would lean towards a front running effort by #4 Divine Providence. 

No tentative bets with too many likely changes.
Confidence – 1 of 5 – would need to reassess after the changes are announced.

I often find it difficult to remain focused on handicapping races that offer a number of Also-Eligibles, Main Track Only Entries, and are questionable with the weather.  I find that I am more inclined, in some cases, to completely dismiss the AE’s chances.  This is one area where I know I need to change my attitude.  I think you need to almost treat the race as if all of the entries will run and back off of that approach and pace.  Hopefully, my assessment of the weather in New Orleans is correct, since I wasn’t too excited about this race over the turf, on the other hand, maybe I’ll be 2-for-2 on rain outs!

You may wonder why I am doing this, since I could be selecting any track or race I want, especially those I feel confident with…  honestly, it forces me to look at races more like a ‘mandatory’ contest and it also forces me to think about each horse as I write some analysis.  I am trying to retrain my brain to get back into my old routine (future blogpost) and not miss the obvious (again and again).

Good luck all!

Blinkers On!

So far a week into the year, I am already failing at one of my racing resolutions - posting and blogging more often.  Time to put the 'blinkers on' and get focused.  While scouring Brisnet for my Thursday track to handicap, I noticed a 'Race of the Day Contest'.  What the heck, maybe I should use the Brisnet race of the day as a reason to try to win a trip to see the Derby and it would give me a good reason to post more often...  so here it goes.

Beulah - Race 6 - 6f - Statebred AlwN1X for 3yo& up

Naturally, this is a track I generally pass over since I have found the pace tough to assess with the large variance on second call times (versus my pars) for comparison, but here is what I came up with:

1 Perfect Groom (5-2) - weaker part of the entry; broke maiden almost a year ago and while you can excuse a poor effort at two turns over a muddy track last out, this one was slow to leave the gate two back and shows no encouraging works... pass if this is the part of entry to run.

1A Phil's Boy (5-2) - stronger part of the entry boasting a 1 of 19 lifetime mark, 0-fer-ever at this level and from the looks of it will contest the pace early before fading and likely finishing in the money... worth a look if #5 scratches

2 J Z Rib (20-1) - 1 of 18 lifetime, has comments on last three starts of 'Never a factor' and 'never close'... toss last two at two turns and you are still left with no real sense of form and trouble with one turn - PASS!

3 Threequarter Star (20-1) lifetime 1 of 27... has been a total of 6 horses in last 10 starts - not much to like here and will not likely even factor on the pace - PASS!

4 Classic Reward (2-1) - reasonable favorite here, however has been on the bench for about 6 weeks with no published workout; drops back to a statebred condition here, but has struggled beyond the statebred claiming ranks.  Big effort two back is atypical compared to this 6 year old's general form, however that effort is likely to burn some money at the window.  He will need a weak early pace to have a shot here.

5 Bajheera (6-1) - limited sprint experience, but has shown early speed in both, failing in open company, just missing against similar to today's field.  Even in failing route efforts, he shows early speed to the stretch before failing.  His last sprint at Thistledown had a hot second call of 44.4 (well beyond what he can handle) and the pace will be softer here.  Look for him to get loose early and very likely take this race wire to wire.

6 Door Athe Light (3-1) - been up close at this level recently, but seems to lack the final kick.  Pedigree does not suggest that he likes this level, but is the lone 4yo in the group so there is a chance for some improvement here, if the pace fails look for him to be making a late move.

7 Rambo Rib (5-1) - turns back off of a maiden win in the mud against open MSW horses.  At 7 years old, I don't expect to see much improvement here.

In conclusion, look for #5 Bajheera to try to go wire to wire on the lead, his chances improve if #1A Phil's Boy scratches.  As a back-up should #5 get challenged and fail, look for #6 Door Athe Light to make a late move.

Likely plays (pre-scratches and without seeing the tote board at 2 MTP): 
- WP5
- Ex 5,6 - 1/1A,4,5,6

Confidence Level:  2 of 5 - tough track to gauge speed (and I don't play it very often) - no real standouts, but there could be some decent value here.

Look for another post soon about establishing a good 'handicapping routine' so you don't miss the obvious (like I tend to do when I get in a rush!)

Good luck all!

Racing Resolutions for 2013

It has really been quite a year and still did not find my way to Vegas for either the NHC or HPWS...  mostly because I did not put myself out there other than one SSC qualifier at Monmouth Park and all the freebie NHC/HPWS events (likely would have had a better chance hitting the Powerball and getting struck by lightning during a blue moon on a Friday evening than win one of those free for alls...)

Through all the highs, lows, and curve balls that life threw at us this year, I do find myself wrapping up 2012 on a more positive note, but know that I still have a ton of work cut out for me before I am ready to fulfill my quest to win the 'Big One' (or the smaller one) in Vegas.

Reflecting back on 2012, where did I see my improvement?

• A good run at the SSC qualifier at Monmouth - went all-in on the wrong horse in the last leg, but made it to the final race and had the field down to two choices... the one I didn't select won for fun.  That day gave me a new perspective on contest/tournament play and really reinforced my preference to a format that allows you to select your plays versus mandatory-only formats
• Improved my Pick 4 strategy by tracking 'contenders' per race rather totally toss a race where I didn't see a play jump out at me.
• Assigning a logical play per race with a confidence rating... after all, most contests require a minimum number of plays out of 2 - 3 full race cards and you need to have a bullet late in the game.
• Improved on my work with horses that have an early pace advantage - when identified, I am seeing a 50% win rate and nice ROI, but like anything else I do, I am still looking for ways to improve on that (track to track par values, form factors, etc.)
• Started to take race conditions more seriously as a step in evaluating a race - been finding some locked in horses and some hidden value.

What do I do differently moving forward into 2013?

• Blog more frequently.  My last post was about 9 months ago....  A lot has happened with my handicapping, my takes on certain conditions/angles/etc.  All are things that I should be writing about and discussing more freely with the handicapping community.
• More interaction with the handicapping community.  Fellow bloggers (and Rutgers Alumni) Terry (Red Rock or Bust) and Bill (NJ Horseplayer) are two great guys I had a chance to meet in person at Monmouth earlier this year.  I enjoy reading their blogs and takes on the industry and how they approach tournaments being in a similar boat as myself ( a full life outside of handicapping ).  The Knight Sky Racing Blog is always a good read on the state of racing here in NJ (and industry wide).  Twinspire's Derek Simon has been a pleasure to interact with via Facebook - between his blog entries, free plays, and the ability to discuss some spot plays, it is great to see his insight and how open he is to discuss thoughts and plays. A new blog I recently started reading more is Equinometry by Lenny Moon - a lot of great subjects and information to be shared there as well.  I have been absent in a lot of this great conversation and exchange of ideas/concepts - something that will be changing in 2013.
  
• Make better use of social media.  I have a twitter account that I rarely use... time to post some plays and do more than post a link to my blog entries (or harassing PSE&G as I did post-Hurricane Sandy)


• Pace.  While I made great strides with analysis of early pace advantage, I need to focus more on the late pace of the race as well.  In races where I feel that the early pace will collapse or be weak, I can isolate the group of late runners - but can't quite put my finger on what makes the eventual winner stand out from the rest of the pack.


• More focus on the conditions of the race.  I think another good, in-depth read of James Quinn's "The Handicapper's Condition Book" is in order. 


• Introduce my kids to horse racing.  I have fond memories of going to the track as a kid and doing the early morning backside tour and spending time with my grandmother and late Uncle (who was a professional gambler post-retirement).  They are the future of the sport... let them fall in love with the excitement, the horses, and the setting - they'll be hooked for life like I am.


• Lastly...  win my way to Vegas for January 2014.  I will be playing the Monmouth SSC and all the freebie NHC/HPWS events, but look for me to play a Horsetourneys or Derby Wars feeder event (like the low price for buy-in)... 

Happy Holidays everyone! 

Here is to a happy, prosperous, and fruitful 2013!

Hindsight is Always 50/50

I usually joke at work that when faced with a 50/50 decision, you have an 80% chance of being wrong.  That sums up how my day ended at the Monmouth Simulcast Series Challenge #3 yesterday. 

Entering the 32nd and final race of the day, I sat perched in 22nd place and about $30 of bankroll out of qualifying for the finals.  While not a race I would have normally played, I knew I had to add to the bankroll if I wanted to have a chance to advance.  I had the finale at Gulfstream down to two choices... #3 Eclipticalspraline 3-1 and #10 J. R. Porsche 6-1.  My gut told me to go with the #10, I liked him stretching out after a poor effort going short on the grass, positive jockey switch to Jersey Joe Bravo who rides well for Romans, and the drop from MSW to a 35k tag.  Conversely, #3 had already run well at this level once with what I felt were lesser connections and turned back in distance after running well against a sluggish pace.  My old software had the #3 pegged and even said it was value playing this one down to 4-5.

I chose the #10.  I think he may still be running.  #3 won and returned $6 on the win bet.  I had gone all in.  The net result would have been a bankroll of $522 which surely would have secured me a spot and likely a paycheck. 

Overall, I cashed on 6 of 14 wagers I placed.  Looking back at the day, I saw 4 wagers that were not in my best judgement. 

First, after starting 0-for-3, I elected to go with a show bet on one of my stronger plays with the rational that it would keep me moving in the right direction and save some ammo for the middle portion of the contest - horse won and paid $7.60 ($3.80 on the show) in the 3rd at Gulfstream.  I was gun shy after missing two of my top plays earlier in the card.

Second - in the next race, 5th at Tampa, I had lukewarm feelings about the #11 and figured I could make up the difference on my botched show-instead-of-win bet by playing this one to show... and finished out.  This race wasn't even on my radar for the day.  Ugh.

Third - in the 29th leg, the 11th at Tampa, was my original 'hail mary' play if I was down to my last $10...  #4 Wana Play was a morning line 15-1 shot, my value odds had him playable to 10-1... opened at 3-1 and floated up to 8-1 by post time.  Being later in the day, I threw 20WP at him and watched him burst to the front, only to gimp home after losing touch with the field by the top of the stretch.  This race was meant to be my last ditch effort to take a swing for the fences, not a play I was feeling too good about.  Had he fired back in his old form, he could have taken this field wire to wire... not the case today.

Lastly - in the final race as I described above, I went with a bet on what I thought should have been the most value, but in the end, I should have followed my old tried-and-true software's pick.  Why mess with a good thing?

Overall, I pleased with my performance yesterday.  After peaking at 10th place through 28 races, I made two bad decisions, but otherwise my handicapping was fairly sound.  On the Equibase weekly contest, I ended in 42nd out of about 2,950.  At the freebie NHC online contest, I managed a 40th place finish out of 1,623.  The Meadowlands Winter Survival challenge now finds me sitting in 29th place overall out of 4,895 players.  I am even still alive in the Remington Quarter Horse Survival Challenge.  While please with the direction my handicapping is taking, I realize I still have a lot of work to do and find confidence in some of my newer revelations as well as putting my trust in my old software that I have been making money with for well over a decade.

Lastly, kudos to Monmouth Park for hosting another great event.  I had the pleasure of meeting fellow handicappers / bloggers Terry from Red Rock and Bill from NJ Horseplayer.  Complimentary soda and water coupled with a $10 food voucher (and a decent off-season menu) made sure everyone was fed and happy.  Sophia Mangalee was through the crowd stopping to talk to just about every table offering words of encouragement.  Fellow horseplayers swapped stories, advice, and were a far cry nicer than the crowds I found on recent trips to Atlantic City casino racebooks.

Next live contest for me will likely be the Monmouth/Woodbine contest on site in June... until then, I have some work to do!!!

Still Hangin' Around

Wow, four months since my last post... it's not like I hit the Mega Millions and have been sipping cold drinks in a warm destination.  Work, life, the holidays, the failure of Rutgers football against Connecticut have all been keeping my busy.  The future of Monmouth Park for 2012 is in doubt, Aqueduct is doing well with the new casino (Hello NJ, see the writing on the wall yet - we are now surrounded by Aqueduct, Yonkers, Parx and PA, Delaware, etc.).  I can't help but thinking after the breakdown in negotiations this past week that my last trip to Monmouth (simulcast series qualifing event) may have very well been my last.

This weekend offered the hail mary of NHC freebie qualifying... three free events (TVG and Brisnet on Saturday & the NHC Freebie on Sunday).  Trying to take these chances somewhat seriously has been a huge mental drain (along with entering my selections at Public Handicapper) - 7 different tracks for Saturday (Haw, Aqu, Hol, GP, FG, Tam, TP) makes me feel like Gaylord Perry's confused jersey when he was elected to the Hall of Fame; plus ten races for Sunday from four additional tracks (FG, Aqu, GP, and Hol).  While realizing the odds of being forced to play mandatory races (of which I would have only played two of the 20 Saturday races with real money) against about 3,000 of my closest friends - I am wondering why I just put myself through the time and effort.

As the opportunities for qualifying for the NHC finals are winding down due to the inability of NJ Residents to play in twinspires or DRF Bets event - it is time to start reflecting on what went right and where I need to do more work for next year.  This year saw a lot of positives.  I finally was able (with the help of my good friend Jake) to get my old 'system' and homemade figures/pace system automated; I discovered a couple more profitable angle plays to add to the arsenal with a few more very close to being added to the list; established a profitable and winning Pick 4 strategy when targeting guaranteed pools (state of NJ has already sent me my paperwork so they can take their share of my winnings as well); and have gotten to know and interacted with several other good online handicappers/bloggers with similar interests and goals (Terry from Redrockorbust; Bill from NJ Horseplayer; and the Knight Sky... just to name a few). 

I look forward to 2012 and trying to qualify for what sounds like more of a circus for the finals in 2013.  I am optomistic that as long as there are people that are passionate about racing that I will be watching a late Friday afternoon card with a cooler of ice cold beer this summer at Monmouth Park (which is a mere 5.4 miles from my office) listening to Sinatra sing "Summer Wind" at the end of the day, that I will be able to bring the kids to a place I have loved going to and learned a lot about racing (and life) from my late Uncle Dutch, that Rapid Redux will make history again this upcoming week by winning his 19th race of the year, and that I will be sitting in a sportbook in Vegas in January of 2013 winning the top prize and having one hell of time doing it with my good luck charm and biggest supporter (my wife) by my side.

Now it's time to finish up my Sunday NHC Freebie picks...  who knows, maybe I'll be sitting in Vegas in January of 2012 instead.