So far a week into the year, I am already failing at one of my racing resolutions - posting and blogging more often. Time to put the 'blinkers on' and get focused. While scouring Brisnet for my Thursday track to handicap, I noticed a 'Race of the Day Contest'. What the heck, maybe I should use the Brisnet race of the day as a reason to try to win a trip to see the Derby and it would give me a good reason to post more often... so here it goes.
Beulah - Race 6 - 6f - Statebred AlwN1X for 3yo& up
Naturally, this is a track I generally pass over since I have found the pace tough to assess with the large variance on second call times (versus my pars) for comparison, but here is what I came up with:
1 Perfect Groom (5-2) - weaker part of the entry; broke maiden almost a year ago and while you can excuse a poor effort at two turns over a muddy track last out, this one was slow to leave the gate two back and shows no encouraging works... pass if this is the part of entry to run.
1A Phil's Boy (5-2) - stronger part of the entry boasting a 1 of 19 lifetime mark, 0-fer-ever at this level and from the looks of it will contest the pace early before fading and likely finishing in the money... worth a look if #5 scratches
2 J Z Rib (20-1) - 1 of 18 lifetime, has comments on last three starts of 'Never a factor' and 'never close'... toss last two at two turns and you are still left with no real sense of form and trouble with one turn - PASS!
3 Threequarter Star (20-1) lifetime 1 of 27... has been a total of 6 horses in last 10 starts - not much to like here and will not likely even factor on the pace - PASS!
4 Classic Reward (2-1) - reasonable favorite here, however has been on the bench for about 6 weeks with no published workout; drops back to a statebred condition here, but has struggled beyond the statebred claiming ranks. Big effort two back is atypical compared to this 6 year old's general form, however that effort is likely to burn some money at the window. He will need a weak early pace to have a shot here.
5 Bajheera (6-1) - limited sprint experience, but has shown early speed in both, failing in open company, just missing against similar to today's field. Even in failing route efforts, he shows early speed to the stretch before failing. His last sprint at Thistledown had a hot second call of 44.4 (well beyond what he can handle) and the pace will be softer here. Look for him to get loose early and very likely take this race wire to wire.
6 Door Athe Light (3-1) - been up close at this level recently, but seems to lack the final kick. Pedigree does not suggest that he likes this level, but is the lone 4yo in the group so there is a chance for some improvement here, if the pace fails look for him to be making a late move.
7 Rambo Rib (5-1) - turns back off of a maiden win in the mud against open MSW horses. At 7 years old, I don't expect to see much improvement here.
In conclusion, look for #5 Bajheera to try to go wire to wire on the lead, his chances improve if #1A Phil's Boy scratches. As a back-up should #5 get challenged and fail, look for #6 Door Athe Light to make a late move.
Likely plays (pre-scratches and without seeing the tote board at 2 MTP):
- WP5
- Ex 5,6 - 1/1A,4,5,6
Confidence Level: 2 of 5 - tough track to gauge speed (and I don't play it very often) - no real standouts, but there could be some decent value here.
Look for another post soon about establishing a good 'handicapping routine' so you don't miss the obvious (like I tend to do when I get in a rush!)
Good luck all!
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Sunday, December 23, 2012
Racing Resolutions for 2013
It has really been quite a year and still did not find my way to Vegas for either the NHC or HPWS... mostly because I did not put myself out there other than one SSC qualifier at Monmouth Park and all the freebie NHC/HPWS events (likely would have had a better chance hitting the Powerball and getting struck by lightning during a blue moon on a Friday evening than win one of those free for alls...)
Through all the highs, lows, and curve balls that life threw at us this year, I do find myself wrapping up 2012 on a more positive note, but know that I still have a ton of work cut out for me before I am ready to fulfill my quest to win the 'Big One' (or the smaller one) in Vegas.
Reflecting back on 2012, where did I see my improvement?
What do I do differently moving forward into 2013?
Happy Holidays everyone!
Here is to a happy, prosperous, and fruitful 2013!
Through all the highs, lows, and curve balls that life threw at us this year, I do find myself wrapping up 2012 on a more positive note, but know that I still have a ton of work cut out for me before I am ready to fulfill my quest to win the 'Big One' (or the smaller one) in Vegas.
Reflecting back on 2012, where did I see my improvement?
- A good run at the SSC qualifier at Monmouth - went all-in on the wrong horse in the last leg, but made it to the final race and had the field down to two choices... the one I didn't select won for fun. That day gave me a new perspective on contest/tournament play and really reinforced my preference to a format that allows you to select your plays versus mandatory-only formats
- Improved my Pick 4 strategy by tracking 'contenders' per race rather totally toss a race where I didn't see a play jump out at me.
- Assigning a logical play per race with a confidence rating... after all, most contests require a minimum number of plays out of 2 - 3 full race cards and you need to have a bullet late in the game.
- Improved on my work with horses that have an early pace advantage - when identified, I am seeing a 50% win rate and nice ROI, but like anything else I do, I am still looking for ways to improve on that (track to track par values, form factors, etc.)
- Started to take race conditions more seriously as a step in evaluating a race - been finding some locked in horses and some hidden value.
What do I do differently moving forward into 2013?
- Blog more frequently. My last post was about 9 months ago.... A lot has happened with my handicapping, my takes on certain conditions/angles/etc. All are things that I should be writing about and discussing more freely with the handicapping community.
- More interaction with the handicapping community. Fellow bloggers (and Rutgers Alumni) Terry (Red Rock or Bust) and Bill (NJ Horseplayer) are two great guys I had a chance to meet in person at Monmouth earlier this year. I enjoy reading their blogs and takes on the industry and how they approach tournaments being in a similar boat as myself ( a full life outside of handicapping ). The Knight Sky Racing Blog is always a good read on the state of racing here in NJ (and industry wide). Twinspire's Derek Simon has been a pleasure to interact with via Facebook - between his blog entries, free plays, and the ability to discuss some spot plays, it is great to see his insight and how open he is to discuss thoughts and plays. A new blog I recently started reading more is Equinometry by Lenny Moon - a lot of great subjects and information to be shared there as well. I have been absent in a lot of this great conversation and exchange of ideas/concepts - something that will be changing in 2013.
- Make better use of social media. I have a twitter account that I rarely use... time to post some plays and do more than post a link to my blog entries (or harassing PSE&G as I did post-Hurricane Sandy)
- Pace. While I made great strides with analysis of early pace advantage, I need to focus more on the late pace of the race as well. In races where I feel that the early pace will collapse or be weak, I can isolate the group of late runners - but can't quite put my finger on what makes the eventual winner stand out from the rest of the pack.
- More focus on the conditions of the race. I think another good, in-depth read of James Quinn's "The Handicapper's Condition Book" is in order.
- Introduce my kids to horse racing. I have fond memories of going to the track as a kid and doing the early morning backside tour and spending time with my grandmother and late Uncle (who was a professional gambler post-retirement). They are the future of the sport... let them fall in love with the excitement, the horses, and the setting - they'll be hooked for life like I am.
- Lastly... win my way to Vegas for January 2014. I will be playing the Monmouth SSC and all the freebie NHC/HPWS events, but look for me to play a Horsetourneys or Derby Wars feeder event (like the low price for buy-in)...
Happy Holidays everyone!
Here is to a happy, prosperous, and fruitful 2013!
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Hindsight is Always 50/50
I usually joke at work that when faced with a 50/50 decision, you have an 80% chance of being wrong. That sums up how my day ended at the Monmouth Simulcast Series Challenge #3 yesterday.
Entering the 32nd and final race of the day, I sat perched in 22nd place and about $30 of bankroll out of qualifying for the finals. While not a race I would have normally played, I knew I had to add to the bankroll if I wanted to have a chance to advance. I had the finale at Gulfstream down to two choices... #3 Eclipticalspraline 3-1 and #10 J. R. Porsche 6-1. My gut told me to go with the #10, I liked him stretching out after a poor effort going short on the grass, positive jockey switch to Jersey Joe Bravo who rides well for Romans, and the drop from MSW to a 35k tag. Conversely, #3 had already run well at this level once with what I felt were lesser connections and turned back in distance after running well against a sluggish pace. My old software had the #3 pegged and even said it was value playing this one down to 4-5.
I chose the #10. I think he may still be running. #3 won and returned $6 on the win bet. I had gone all in. The net result would have been a bankroll of $522 which surely would have secured me a spot and likely a paycheck.
Overall, I cashed on 6 of 14 wagers I placed. Looking back at the day, I saw 4 wagers that were not in my best judgement.
First, after starting 0-for-3, I elected to go with a show bet on one of my stronger plays with the rational that it would keep me moving in the right direction and save some ammo for the middle portion of the contest - horse won and paid $7.60 ($3.80 on the show) in the 3rd at Gulfstream. I was gun shy after missing two of my top plays earlier in the card.
Second - in the next race, 5th at Tampa, I had lukewarm feelings about the #11 and figured I could make up the difference on my botched show-instead-of-win bet by playing this one to show... and finished out. This race wasn't even on my radar for the day. Ugh.
Third - in the 29th leg, the 11th at Tampa, was my original 'hail mary' play if I was down to my last $10... #4 Wana Play was a morning line 15-1 shot, my value odds had him playable to 10-1... opened at 3-1 and floated up to 8-1 by post time. Being later in the day, I threw 20WP at him and watched him burst to the front, only to gimp home after losing touch with the field by the top of the stretch. This race was meant to be my last ditch effort to take a swing for the fences, not a play I was feeling too good about. Had he fired back in his old form, he could have taken this field wire to wire... not the case today.
Lastly - in the final race as I described above, I went with a bet on what I thought should have been the most value, but in the end, I should have followed my old tried-and-true software's pick. Why mess with a good thing?
Overall, I pleased with my performance yesterday. After peaking at 10th place through 28 races, I made two bad decisions, but otherwise my handicapping was fairly sound. On the Equibase weekly contest, I ended in 42nd out of about 2,950. At the freebie NHC online contest, I managed a 40th place finish out of 1,623. The Meadowlands Winter Survival challenge now finds me sitting in 29th place overall out of 4,895 players. I am even still alive in the Remington Quarter Horse Survival Challenge. While please with the direction my handicapping is taking, I realize I still have a lot of work to do and find confidence in some of my newer revelations as well as putting my trust in my old software that I have been making money with for well over a decade.
Lastly, kudos to Monmouth Park for hosting another great event. I had the pleasure of meeting fellow handicappers / bloggers Terry from Red Rock and Bill from NJ Horseplayer. Complimentary soda and water coupled with a $10 food voucher (and a decent off-season menu) made sure everyone was fed and happy. Sophia Mangalee was through the crowd stopping to talk to just about every table offering words of encouragement. Fellow horseplayers swapped stories, advice, and were a far cry nicer than the crowds I found on recent trips to Atlantic City casino racebooks.
Next live contest for me will likely be the Monmouth/Woodbine contest on site in June... until then, I have some work to do!!!
Entering the 32nd and final race of the day, I sat perched in 22nd place and about $30 of bankroll out of qualifying for the finals. While not a race I would have normally played, I knew I had to add to the bankroll if I wanted to have a chance to advance. I had the finale at Gulfstream down to two choices... #3 Eclipticalspraline 3-1 and #10 J. R. Porsche 6-1. My gut told me to go with the #10, I liked him stretching out after a poor effort going short on the grass, positive jockey switch to Jersey Joe Bravo who rides well for Romans, and the drop from MSW to a 35k tag. Conversely, #3 had already run well at this level once with what I felt were lesser connections and turned back in distance after running well against a sluggish pace. My old software had the #3 pegged and even said it was value playing this one down to 4-5.
I chose the #10. I think he may still be running. #3 won and returned $6 on the win bet. I had gone all in. The net result would have been a bankroll of $522 which surely would have secured me a spot and likely a paycheck.
Overall, I cashed on 6 of 14 wagers I placed. Looking back at the day, I saw 4 wagers that were not in my best judgement.
First, after starting 0-for-3, I elected to go with a show bet on one of my stronger plays with the rational that it would keep me moving in the right direction and save some ammo for the middle portion of the contest - horse won and paid $7.60 ($3.80 on the show) in the 3rd at Gulfstream. I was gun shy after missing two of my top plays earlier in the card.
Second - in the next race, 5th at Tampa, I had lukewarm feelings about the #11 and figured I could make up the difference on my botched show-instead-of-win bet by playing this one to show... and finished out. This race wasn't even on my radar for the day. Ugh.
Third - in the 29th leg, the 11th at Tampa, was my original 'hail mary' play if I was down to my last $10... #4 Wana Play was a morning line 15-1 shot, my value odds had him playable to 10-1... opened at 3-1 and floated up to 8-1 by post time. Being later in the day, I threw 20WP at him and watched him burst to the front, only to gimp home after losing touch with the field by the top of the stretch. This race was meant to be my last ditch effort to take a swing for the fences, not a play I was feeling too good about. Had he fired back in his old form, he could have taken this field wire to wire... not the case today.
Lastly - in the final race as I described above, I went with a bet on what I thought should have been the most value, but in the end, I should have followed my old tried-and-true software's pick. Why mess with a good thing?
Overall, I pleased with my performance yesterday. After peaking at 10th place through 28 races, I made two bad decisions, but otherwise my handicapping was fairly sound. On the Equibase weekly contest, I ended in 42nd out of about 2,950. At the freebie NHC online contest, I managed a 40th place finish out of 1,623. The Meadowlands Winter Survival challenge now finds me sitting in 29th place overall out of 4,895 players. I am even still alive in the Remington Quarter Horse Survival Challenge. While please with the direction my handicapping is taking, I realize I still have a lot of work to do and find confidence in some of my newer revelations as well as putting my trust in my old software that I have been making money with for well over a decade.
Lastly, kudos to Monmouth Park for hosting another great event. I had the pleasure of meeting fellow handicappers / bloggers Terry from Red Rock and Bill from NJ Horseplayer. Complimentary soda and water coupled with a $10 food voucher (and a decent off-season menu) made sure everyone was fed and happy. Sophia Mangalee was through the crowd stopping to talk to just about every table offering words of encouragement. Fellow horseplayers swapped stories, advice, and were a far cry nicer than the crowds I found on recent trips to Atlantic City casino racebooks.
Next live contest for me will likely be the Monmouth/Woodbine contest on site in June... until then, I have some work to do!!!
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Still Hangin' Around
Wow, four months since my last post... it's not like I hit the Mega Millions and have been sipping cold drinks in a warm destination. Work, life, the holidays, the failure of Rutgers football against Connecticut have all been keeping my busy. The future of Monmouth Park for 2012 is in doubt, Aqueduct is doing well with the new casino (Hello NJ, see the writing on the wall yet - we are now surrounded by Aqueduct, Yonkers, Parx and PA, Delaware, etc.). I can't help but thinking after the breakdown in negotiations this past week that my last trip to Monmouth (simulcast series qualifing event) may have very well been my last.
This weekend offered the hail mary of NHC freebie qualifying... three free events (TVG and Brisnet on Saturday & the NHC Freebie on Sunday). Trying to take these chances somewhat seriously has been a huge mental drain (along with entering my selections at Public Handicapper) - 7 different tracks for Saturday (Haw, Aqu, Hol, GP, FG, Tam, TP) makes me feel like Gaylord Perry's confused jersey when he was elected to the Hall of Fame; plus ten races for Sunday from four additional tracks (FG, Aqu, GP, and Hol). While realizing the odds of being forced to play mandatory races (of which I would have only played two of the 20 Saturday races with real money) against about 3,000 of my closest friends - I am wondering why I just put myself through the time and effort.
As the opportunities for qualifying for the NHC finals are winding down due to the inability of NJ Residents to play in twinspires or DRF Bets event - it is time to start reflecting on what went right and where I need to do more work for next year. This year saw a lot of positives. I finally was able (with the help of my good friend Jake) to get my old 'system' and homemade figures/pace system automated; I discovered a couple more profitable angle plays to add to the arsenal with a few more very close to being added to the list; established a profitable and winning Pick 4 strategy when targeting guaranteed pools (state of NJ has already sent me my paperwork so they can take their share of my winnings as well); and have gotten to know and interacted with several other good online handicappers/bloggers with similar interests and goals (Terry from Redrockorbust; Bill from NJ Horseplayer; and the Knight Sky... just to name a few).
I look forward to 2012 and trying to qualify for what sounds like more of a circus for the finals in 2013. I am optomistic that as long as there are people that are passionate about racing that I will be watching a late Friday afternoon card with a cooler of ice cold beer this summer at Monmouth Park (which is a mere 5.4 miles from my office) listening to Sinatra sing "Summer Wind" at the end of the day, that I will be able to bring the kids to a place I have loved going to and learned a lot about racing (and life) from my late Uncle Dutch, that Rapid Redux will make history again this upcoming week by winning his 19th race of the year, and that I will be sitting in a sportbook in Vegas in January of 2013 winning the top prize and having one hell of time doing it with my good luck charm and biggest supporter (my wife) by my side.
Now it's time to finish up my Sunday NHC Freebie picks... who knows, maybe I'll be sitting in Vegas in January of 2012 instead.
This weekend offered the hail mary of NHC freebie qualifying... three free events (TVG and Brisnet on Saturday & the NHC Freebie on Sunday). Trying to take these chances somewhat seriously has been a huge mental drain (along with entering my selections at Public Handicapper) - 7 different tracks for Saturday (Haw, Aqu, Hol, GP, FG, Tam, TP) makes me feel like Gaylord Perry's confused jersey when he was elected to the Hall of Fame; plus ten races for Sunday from four additional tracks (FG, Aqu, GP, and Hol). While realizing the odds of being forced to play mandatory races (of which I would have only played two of the 20 Saturday races with real money) against about 3,000 of my closest friends - I am wondering why I just put myself through the time and effort.
As the opportunities for qualifying for the NHC finals are winding down due to the inability of NJ Residents to play in twinspires or DRF Bets event - it is time to start reflecting on what went right and where I need to do more work for next year. This year saw a lot of positives. I finally was able (with the help of my good friend Jake) to get my old 'system' and homemade figures/pace system automated; I discovered a couple more profitable angle plays to add to the arsenal with a few more very close to being added to the list; established a profitable and winning Pick 4 strategy when targeting guaranteed pools (state of NJ has already sent me my paperwork so they can take their share of my winnings as well); and have gotten to know and interacted with several other good online handicappers/bloggers with similar interests and goals (Terry from Redrockorbust; Bill from NJ Horseplayer; and the Knight Sky... just to name a few).
I look forward to 2012 and trying to qualify for what sounds like more of a circus for the finals in 2013. I am optomistic that as long as there are people that are passionate about racing that I will be watching a late Friday afternoon card with a cooler of ice cold beer this summer at Monmouth Park (which is a mere 5.4 miles from my office) listening to Sinatra sing "Summer Wind" at the end of the day, that I will be able to bring the kids to a place I have loved going to and learned a lot about racing (and life) from my late Uncle Dutch, that Rapid Redux will make history again this upcoming week by winning his 19th race of the year, and that I will be sitting in a sportbook in Vegas in January of 2013 winning the top prize and having one hell of time doing it with my good luck charm and biggest supporter (my wife) by my side.
Now it's time to finish up my Sunday NHC Freebie picks... who knows, maybe I'll be sitting in Vegas in January of 2012 instead.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Horse Tourneys... another wasted day and $$$
Like almost a thousand others today, I figured I would take a shot at the NHC qualifier hosted by Horse Tourneys (an affiliate of Ellis Park). What a waste of time, money, and effort. Hopefully they will get their fecal matter coagulated as they move forward...
Coming off of a very relaxing week of vacation, I figured I would download the PP's for Del Mar, Saratoga, and Monmouth (as well as the data files) - I spent the time working the ten contest races meticulously... I got my early picks in, adjusted early for some scratches.... then I wanted to change contenders based on odds... and guess what? The site goes down! Finally after the second leg, they post a note on their site that the contest has been cancelled.
Kudos to Ellis Park / Horse Tourney for offering up to 50 spots (out of 500) to the NHC Finals in Vegas, but if the site is not going to work, who is really going to play?
Thanks for nothing... I guess as usual, I was able to get some more practice in for a REAL tourney...
Coming off of a very relaxing week of vacation, I figured I would download the PP's for Del Mar, Saratoga, and Monmouth (as well as the data files) - I spent the time working the ten contest races meticulously... I got my early picks in, adjusted early for some scratches.... then I wanted to change contenders based on odds... and guess what? The site goes down! Finally after the second leg, they post a note on their site that the contest has been cancelled.
Kudos to Ellis Park / Horse Tourney for offering up to 50 spots (out of 500) to the NHC Finals in Vegas, but if the site is not going to work, who is really going to play?
Thanks for nothing... I guess as usual, I was able to get some more practice in for a REAL tourney...
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Made a good run, but I run too slow....
Unlike Johnny Cash, they didn't overtake me down in Juarez, Mexico.... it was more like overtaken in Del Mar, California.
Freebie NHC qualifer today, top three punch their ticket to dance... I managed a 42nd place finish.
Race 1 - Woodbine Race 4 - I took 5 Embur's Song 8-5 who won and gave me ($2WP) - 7.60... for a fleeting moment, I can say I was tied for first place with a ton of other people. I wanted to beat the ML favorite 3 Biofuel, just didn't like any other entries... figured I might as well go with what I think will win early.
Race 2 - Saratoga Race 5 - sprinting maiden claimers... I felt it was a wide open race, I was going to pass on the favorite here, who was weak to say the least. I took a shot with the 1 Lindell AC at 5-1 thinking the class move and maturity of his first start at three years old, coupled with some early foot would do the trick... insted the 9 War Colony won as a first time maiden claimer with decent connections... but i did net $5.10 here.
Race 3 - Monmouth Race 6 - claiming turf sprint - I liked the 2 Outstanding Hope and 5 Family Holiday here, so I took a shot at the solid connections of Volk-Lopez on the 5, who I thought would own the pace... managed another second and added $5.80 to the total.
Race 4 - Woodbine Race 7 - statebred allowance route on the polytrack - I was down to 2 Nicola's Nickers and 7 R Unpainted Dancer - thinking the race looked devoid of early speed other than the 7, I took a shot... came up empty as the 2 rallied to win... ouch.
Race 5 - Monmouth Race 8 - One mile on the turf for 30k claimers - Really liked the 8 Freshman Dorm for a tone of reasons - knew the price was going to be short, but felt this one was unbeatable here... was right! Added $9.00 to the tally (5.60/3.40) - at this point, I am sitting in a tie for 139th place and thinking that I need to make a move or go play Wii with the kids...
Race 6 - Saratoga Race 9 - Sanford G2 - 6 Overdriven - super chalk, was not going to play against, added that whopping $4.70 to the tally (2.60/2.10)
Race 7 - Woodbine Race 10 - I had no good feeling on this race and went with 9 Ideals and Dreams thinking that he had decent connections, could best most of this field and that the pace here looked weak - was wrong as a 11 Lucky Ned scored for a price... ouch. At this point was sitting at 213th... was ready to shut it down and move on...
Race 8 - Del Mar Race 5 - sprinting maiden claimers - I had one horse I liked... 11 Best Logic - who won at a nice price (22.80/9.60) - tacked opn a hefty 32.40 onto the tally (granted the NTRA site said the win was 22.00 - case for disputing 0.80....) moved me up to 33rd!
Race 9 - Del Mar Race 6 - ungraded stakes on the turf - I really wasn't feeling this race - the pace looked fast and weak and the field felt wide open... I went with the horse I felt could win... 1 Norvsky and he did just that adding 8.40 to the tally - now at 72.20 (NTRA) - really should have been 73.00; but in 20th place.
Race 10 - Del Mar Race 8 - San Clemente G2 - 1mi on the turf - The leader was sitting at 91.60, with third place at 84.00.... I was originally warm to 9 Mizdirection, but knew I needed a horse over 10-1 to win.... I narrowed the field down to 1 Up In Time, 2 Celestial Kitten, 3 Fifth Commandment, and 8 Rosehill Dew. I dismissed the 8, she just hadn't shown the improvement after a couple starts in the US. I tossed the 2, I don't like to play east coasters shipping west... I felt the same way about the 1 that I did the 8 0 she had a soft pace last out and couldn't get it done late and four back had a quicker pace and was flat... that left me with the 18-1 #3... two turns was in her pedigree and she ran well in her US debut despite a troubled trip on what appeared to be the first time she saw a firm course. She finised out and the 1 took the race... I added nothing to my final tally (although the 1 was worth 35.00). Even if I had played the 1, I would have managed 5th place... just short of the promised land.
42nd out of 1386 or so... not too shabby for a free-for-all like this. I did cash in 7 of the 10 races despite having to swing for the fences a bit in the last leg. This was the first time I had been able to use an automated version of my pace analysis, old point system, and all of my figures in parallel to my conventional handicapping. It was a huge asset to have this information available this easily - and the plays it created outside of the contest races proved to be immensly profitable - winning 4 of my 6 other wagers for win prices of 5.80, 22.80, 13.80, 18.10, with two plays out. A huge thanks goes to my friend in Kentucky, Jake - you kick started the process by sending me the way the import the data... a huge help and timesaver.
Lessons learned - while I used to really prefer this type of format (mandatory races with a fixed value); I think adding some level of confidence to my selections through validation of pace, speed, and other factors, really points me more towards a contest similar to my first shot at the Monmouth Simulcast Series - structure wagers on your pick of races...
Time to crunch more data, scrutinize more angles/figures, and come back sharper and more determined next time out... (hopefully it will also be more than one track that I follow regularly)!
Freebie NHC qualifer today, top three punch their ticket to dance... I managed a 42nd place finish.
Race 1 - Woodbine Race 4 - I took 5 Embur's Song 8-5 who won and gave me ($2WP) - 7.60... for a fleeting moment, I can say I was tied for first place with a ton of other people. I wanted to beat the ML favorite 3 Biofuel, just didn't like any other entries... figured I might as well go with what I think will win early.
Race 2 - Saratoga Race 5 - sprinting maiden claimers... I felt it was a wide open race, I was going to pass on the favorite here, who was weak to say the least. I took a shot with the 1 Lindell AC at 5-1 thinking the class move and maturity of his first start at three years old, coupled with some early foot would do the trick... insted the 9 War Colony won as a first time maiden claimer with decent connections... but i did net $5.10 here.
Race 3 - Monmouth Race 6 - claiming turf sprint - I liked the 2 Outstanding Hope and 5 Family Holiday here, so I took a shot at the solid connections of Volk-Lopez on the 5, who I thought would own the pace... managed another second and added $5.80 to the total.
Race 4 - Woodbine Race 7 - statebred allowance route on the polytrack - I was down to 2 Nicola's Nickers and 7 R Unpainted Dancer - thinking the race looked devoid of early speed other than the 7, I took a shot... came up empty as the 2 rallied to win... ouch.
Race 5 - Monmouth Race 8 - One mile on the turf for 30k claimers - Really liked the 8 Freshman Dorm for a tone of reasons - knew the price was going to be short, but felt this one was unbeatable here... was right! Added $9.00 to the tally (5.60/3.40) - at this point, I am sitting in a tie for 139th place and thinking that I need to make a move or go play Wii with the kids...
Race 6 - Saratoga Race 9 - Sanford G2 - 6 Overdriven - super chalk, was not going to play against, added that whopping $4.70 to the tally (2.60/2.10)
Race 7 - Woodbine Race 10 - I had no good feeling on this race and went with 9 Ideals and Dreams thinking that he had decent connections, could best most of this field and that the pace here looked weak - was wrong as a 11 Lucky Ned scored for a price... ouch. At this point was sitting at 213th... was ready to shut it down and move on...
Race 8 - Del Mar Race 5 - sprinting maiden claimers - I had one horse I liked... 11 Best Logic - who won at a nice price (22.80/9.60) - tacked opn a hefty 32.40 onto the tally (granted the NTRA site said the win was 22.00 - case for disputing 0.80....) moved me up to 33rd!
Race 9 - Del Mar Race 6 - ungraded stakes on the turf - I really wasn't feeling this race - the pace looked fast and weak and the field felt wide open... I went with the horse I felt could win... 1 Norvsky and he did just that adding 8.40 to the tally - now at 72.20 (NTRA) - really should have been 73.00; but in 20th place.
Race 10 - Del Mar Race 8 - San Clemente G2 - 1mi on the turf - The leader was sitting at 91.60, with third place at 84.00.... I was originally warm to 9 Mizdirection, but knew I needed a horse over 10-1 to win.... I narrowed the field down to 1 Up In Time, 2 Celestial Kitten, 3 Fifth Commandment, and 8 Rosehill Dew. I dismissed the 8, she just hadn't shown the improvement after a couple starts in the US. I tossed the 2, I don't like to play east coasters shipping west... I felt the same way about the 1 that I did the 8 0 she had a soft pace last out and couldn't get it done late and four back had a quicker pace and was flat... that left me with the 18-1 #3... two turns was in her pedigree and she ran well in her US debut despite a troubled trip on what appeared to be the first time she saw a firm course. She finised out and the 1 took the race... I added nothing to my final tally (although the 1 was worth 35.00). Even if I had played the 1, I would have managed 5th place... just short of the promised land.
42nd out of 1386 or so... not too shabby for a free-for-all like this. I did cash in 7 of the 10 races despite having to swing for the fences a bit in the last leg. This was the first time I had been able to use an automated version of my pace analysis, old point system, and all of my figures in parallel to my conventional handicapping. It was a huge asset to have this information available this easily - and the plays it created outside of the contest races proved to be immensly profitable - winning 4 of my 6 other wagers for win prices of 5.80, 22.80, 13.80, 18.10, with two plays out. A huge thanks goes to my friend in Kentucky, Jake - you kick started the process by sending me the way the import the data... a huge help and timesaver.
Lessons learned - while I used to really prefer this type of format (mandatory races with a fixed value); I think adding some level of confidence to my selections through validation of pace, speed, and other factors, really points me more towards a contest similar to my first shot at the Monmouth Simulcast Series - structure wagers on your pick of races...
Time to crunch more data, scrutinize more angles/figures, and come back sharper and more determined next time out... (hopefully it will also be more than one track that I follow regularly)!
Saturday, July 23, 2011
It's a perfect day.....
...to stay inside and handicap!
My wife is off to Boston for a work conference and I have three kids that actually turned down the offer of setting up the kiddie pool and playing with water guns (Charlie - "It's too hot outside... I stay here."). Can't say I can argue against that!
Tomorrow features another freebie NHC tour event online... as usual, I am going to take a shot against 3000+ in the hopes of making it to Vegas. This time, I am armed with my newly crafted spreadsheet which is a compilation of all of my homegrown figures, pace, and my old point system (just about break even after over 3000 races - 30.76% winners for a 2% loss). Major thanks go out to my friend Jake who helped expedite the process by walking me through how to set up the file and import the data so I don't have to manually enter it any longer! The thing I am most interested in is how having my pace analysis summarized will help me try to predict the probably pace scenario; besides taking into account the running style and Quirin points, how my analysis of running style, form, and second call fractional designations will all play in conjunction with my various speed, pace, and class figures...
So the contest be three races from Woodbine, three from Del Mar, two from Saratoga, and two from Monmouth (assuming they run despite cancelling for two straight days due to the heat).. at least I follow one of those circuits. Time to run my new sheet and do my conventional handicapping in between reading stories and playing 'little green and tan army men' on the dining room table... I'll bribe the kids later with pizza and a movie so I can start digging into Del Mar...
If nothing else, staying in the AC is a great way to spend this day!
My wife is off to Boston for a work conference and I have three kids that actually turned down the offer of setting up the kiddie pool and playing with water guns (Charlie - "It's too hot outside... I stay here."). Can't say I can argue against that!
Tomorrow features another freebie NHC tour event online... as usual, I am going to take a shot against 3000+ in the hopes of making it to Vegas. This time, I am armed with my newly crafted spreadsheet which is a compilation of all of my homegrown figures, pace, and my old point system (just about break even after over 3000 races - 30.76% winners for a 2% loss). Major thanks go out to my friend Jake who helped expedite the process by walking me through how to set up the file and import the data so I don't have to manually enter it any longer! The thing I am most interested in is how having my pace analysis summarized will help me try to predict the probably pace scenario; besides taking into account the running style and Quirin points, how my analysis of running style, form, and second call fractional designations will all play in conjunction with my various speed, pace, and class figures...
So the contest be three races from Woodbine, three from Del Mar, two from Saratoga, and two from Monmouth (assuming they run despite cancelling for two straight days due to the heat).. at least I follow one of those circuits. Time to run my new sheet and do my conventional handicapping in between reading stories and playing 'little green and tan army men' on the dining room table... I'll bribe the kids later with pizza and a movie so I can start digging into Del Mar...
If nothing else, staying in the AC is a great way to spend this day!
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