"Don't reinvent the wheel, just realign it." - Michael D'Angelo
It has been a while since I posted last and a lot has been happening. Kudos to NJHorseplayer for staying on top of the TVG takeover of 4NJBets and all the ramifications that has (both good and bad) for the weekend warriors here in the great Garden State.
I took a much needed break, not completely by choice (work has been insanely busy), but also in part to take a step back and re-evaluate a few things I had been working on. I found that I have let pace become too big of a part of decision making process and had let that trump class which was ultimately leading to some poor race modeling. Likewise, I started evaluating a few new 'situations' regarding certain factors (horses third off of layoff, trying to define hidden form, etc.). I realized that I have a lot of good tools and solid angles/methods/analysis, but I just need to get back on track and do what has always worked best for me.
Much like NJHorseplayer, I do see an upside to the TVG takeover of 4NJBets - likely added opportunities for NJ based horse players to find additional means to qualify for the NHC, if you are willing to shell out the $19.95 a month an accessible bank of replay, and hopefully a much more reliable and consistent wagering platform - however only time will tell just how seamless and efficient the new site is.
Back to facing some of my 'fears'... My 'Race of the Day' for Saturday is the Very One G3 at Gulfstream (Race 8 - 1-3/8mi Turf - 4yo&up F&M).
Rather than go entrant by entrant, here is a quick snapshot on how I see this marathon shaping up... Weak early pace contested by 1 Starformer (2-1), 5 Closing Range (3-1), and 2 Seanchai (8-1). Early pace will not hold and the late closers will make a run late - 8 Kadaya (4-1) will likely make the big closing bid for top honors. 1 Starformer (2-1) should still be a factor late, but 4 Game Fair (6-1) will also be moving late from way back
8 Kadaya (4-1) has been solid in clearing her N1X and N2X conditions after being moderately placed in France; third off of layoff and this mare is sharp!
Likely plays: WP8; Ex 8 with 1,4,5,7
Good luck all!