As someone
who has been passionately handicapping and enjoying the races since well before
my adult life, I find that every so often I get stuck in that ‘handicapping
rut’. I fall into complacency with
analysis and end up making the same mistake consistently. Much like a pro athlete trying to get out of
a slump, I find myself trying different things: handicapping a track where I
used to have success (granted, that was years ago)
and find that amazing in those years that the bias,
jockey colony, trainers, etc. have all changed; re-reading a book that helped
to hone my focus on a particular aspect; taking some time off to review data;
and analyze both the ‘big picture’ and individual components I use in my daily
handicapping. Do these help to break the
slump? Not usually.
However, it
is time to put the parts back together and get the engine running as I prepare
for the Monmouth SSC#3 on March 30th (schedule permitting). It is time to get my head back in the
game. I look back a year to see what I was doing differently. I went into last year’s Monmouth SSC Qualifer
well organized and confident in my spot angle plays, my software outputs, and
my newly revised interest in pace analysis.
I look to where I am now – still organized, but second-guessing what I
felt were many of my ‘givens’, I haven’t touched my software since October
(either modified or used it), and a current lack of confidence in developing
race shapes for late runners (early pace is still solid).
I know I
still have a lot of work to do (on many fronts), but have added resources for
pedigree and class, and have been working on some new angle spot plays
(naturally, pace is a secondary check before those become automatic). Much like hitting golf balls at the driving
range, where you try to develop a healthy ‘muscle memory’ of your swing to
avoid consistently making the same mistake, I need to work on developing a
healthy ‘mental memory’ of my handicapping approach. Different classes, surfaces, distances, age
groups, etc. all require a slightly different, yet fundamentally same
approach. Quantifying the factors I look
for/review/dismiss and putting that in some order should help to make a routine
that ensures that I look at the right factors for the right spots, much like at
work how I approach a new project – from setting up the files to actually
assembling my data and producing the final report. I will be developing that personal checklist
over the next week or so… and hopefully, in the words of Susan Powter, I can
“stop the insanity!!!”
This week’s
analysis: Santa Anita – Race 8 – San
Carlos Stakes G2 – 7f – 4yo&up
1 Comma To
The Top (4-1) – pushed uncomfortably along at a hot pace in his last effort in
the Palos Verdes again several of the same that are in here today. Difference today is that the hot pace is not
that likely and this race will set up for a horse on or close to the lead. His subsequent works have been sharp and I
would expect a solid front-running effort here.
2 Capital
Account (4-1) – would prefer the poly-track, but did clear N2X over this
course. The pace does not set up well
for a closer here, so figure he’ll be fighting for a minor share late as he
runs out of real estate in the stretch drive.
3 Justin
Phillip (8-1) – forwardly place and did fight a hot pace last out to hit the
board as a weak favorite in the Palos Verdes.
Somewhat slower pace will allow him to be closer to the lead early, but
just appears to be outclassed with this field.
4 Canonize
(15-1) – would prefer a slower pace and probably if this race was run around
two turns. Shouldn’t be much of a factor
here.
5 Midnight
Transfer (3-1) – toss his two efforts in routes and this one shows a solid
progression from breaking his maiden and a minor stakes over this course last
year against 3 year olds to solid late run against a crumbling early pace last
out to pass the N2X hurdle against older horses. Expect him to be a factor late from just off
the pace. Definite contender.
6 Sahara Sky
(6-1) – took advantage of a hot pace as a horse I had totally dismissed for
lack of class (despite the potential of being the lone closer) in the Palos
Verdes. I am still not sold that this one has the class to contend and that the
pace will set up for him this time around.
Expect a late move by him to fall short.
7 The Lumber
Guy (5-2) – has a G1 win and was runner-up in the Breeder’s Cup Sprint last
fall. Malibu was a disaster as the heavy
favorite. I expect the pace to be a
little faster than he prefers and expect that Gomez may try to shoot for the lead
early with him in this spot. I am
inclined to think he takes a shot and is short late.
8 Drill
(12-1) – has had a couple of poor starts lately and doesn’t seem to be in top
form. I would like to see him have a
good showing against older horses and improved form before giving him any
consideration.
Now for the
Reader’s Digest version of how I see this one setting up… 1 Comma To The Top sets the lead with 7 The
Lumber Guy being sent early. 1 Comma To
The Top can duel and holds off the bid by 7 The Lumber Guy, who starts to lose
ground before the top of the stretch.
Expect to see late runs by 2 Capital Account, 3 Justin Phillip, 5
Midnight Transfer, and 6 Sahara Sky, but all will be just short late.
Good luck
all!
