Things are getting better. People are getting jabbed with the marvels of modern medicine and we may even get to be within six feet of each other soon. As we return to a sense of normalcy, we can expect an exciting 147th running of the Kentucky Derby once again on the first Saturday in May.
The curse of
post 17 is over. Highly Motivated will benefit from the speed that breaks
inside of him, allowing him to run the race he wants from off the pace instead
of inheriting the lead like he did in the Blue Grass. This son of the Into
Mischief, the leading North American sire over the last two years and sire of
the 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, is bred to get the distance. Jockey
Javiar Castellano finished third in the 2018 running of the Kentucky Derby
aboard Highly Motivated's half-brother, Audible.
This
two-year old champion is almost too good to be true. He is undefeated after
five starts which include four graded stakes. I am a fan of Tapit colts and
there is nothing here that points to a bad performance other than pressing
Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass when he didn’t really want to set the pace. There
have been 30 undefeated Kentucky Derby entrants, 17 of which have gone to post
as the favorite. Of those 17, eight have won. Horses with five or more races
before the Kentucky Derby have significantly outperformed horses with four or
less starts.
The post
hurts a bit being on the rail with the deluge of horses pushing in after the
break. This son of Curlin has late kick and is the type of runner that, if they
can navigate through traffic, finds his way into your exotics.
I like to
scream out four letter words. The one I would yell at this colt is “WIDE.” He
ran a much improved race in the Louisiana Derby despite being five wide into
the first turn. If this son of Orb can repeat the run of his sire in the 2013
Kentucky Derby he should find his way into your exotics. He will benefit from
the pace here and show improvement.
How does the pace set up?
Expect a charge to the lead early by Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World, Mendina Spirit, and Midnight Bourbon. Essential Quality and Highly Motivated will be best suited sitting just off of the leaders. I expect a half mile call of about 46-4/5ths and a half mile of about 1:11-4/5ths seconds. The wildcard is really who wants the lead the most and we could conceivably see 46 seconds flat.
The frontrunners will tire which benefits Essential Quality and Highly Motivated the most. There are a number of horses who have the late run to find your trifectas and superfectas here. Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic One, Helium, Mandaloun, and Known Agenda are the most likely. Don’t count out Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie hanging on for a minor share either.
Good luck
and we’ll do this all again in two weeks for the Preakness!
