Back to Normal - Belmont Stakes 2021

 As we hit the first Saturday in June and are all crawling back out from under the rocks we were under, it is time to think about the final leg of the Triple Crown (which was the first leg in 2020, the year we'd all like to forget).

Can Rombauer continue to make history by being the only "new shooter" to win the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes?

Not likely. The full article about this can be found here.

Here are my thoughts on the 2021 Belmont Stakes.

#2 Essential Quality (2-1) - This son of Tapit is looking to follow in the footsteps of half-brothers Tonalist and Tapwrit who won the 2011 and 2014 Belmont Stakes. He can get the distance with this breeding and will make a huge step forward off of a troubled trip in both the Kentucky Derby and the Blue Grass (which he won) after romping home in the slop three back in the Southwest. He should get a fair, contested pace here which sets up for a big run late.

#6 Known Agenda (6-1) - Son of the great Curlin and half-brother to 2010 winner Palace Malice. He is another off the pace type who will need a new rider as Irad Ortiz, Jr is out for a couple weeks after a spill earlier this week at Belmont. He is a serious contender in this race and should have a similar trip to what he had in the Florida Derby.

#4 Hot Rod Charlie (7-2) - He figures to be close to the early pace that is expected to be set by Rock Your World. His breeding may be what holds him back here as the long stretch on "Big Sandy" may be too much for him in the last two furlongs.

#3 Rombauer (3-1) - He ran a heck of a race in the Preakness against a contested pace that set up perfectly for him, but falls short today. The reason I liked him so much in the Preakness (hidden form) is the same reason I am going with Essential Quality on top of my tickets. 

#1 Bourbonic could be a factor late on the bottom of your tickets, as could the fading front runner #7 Rock Your World. I like #8 Overtook's breeding, but question his class in this spot despite the fact that the Peter Pan has been a good pipeline for horses making their first Triple Crown start and winning the Belmont Stakes. I expect little from #5 France Go de Ina.

Bottom line is that early speed doesn't fare well in the Belmont Stakes. All the horses should have a clean race without 20 starters breaking at the same time like the Kentucky Derby. 

Good luck!

Preakness 2021

 Short and sweet this time after a week of fighting a stomach bug:

6 Rombauer 12-1

4 Crowded Trade 10-1

10 Concert Tour 5-2

3 Mendina Spirit 9-5

Expect Mendina Spirit to set the pace with Concert Tour and possibly Midnight Bourbon. Early speed doesn't usually play well in the Preakness so expect a horse to come from off the pace. Rombauer moves forward off of a troubled trip in the Blue Grass and benefits from a quicker pressured pace. Crowded Trade is another horse that will benefit from a battle on the front end. 

The First Saturday in May (Again!)

 Things are getting better. People are getting jabbed with the marvels of modern medicine and we may even get to be within six feet of each other soon. As we return to a sense of normalcy, we can expect an exciting 147^th running of the Kentucky Derby once again on the first Saturday in May.

 So let’s get right to it:

 17 Highly Motivated 10-1

The curse of post 17 is over. Highly Motivated will benefit from the speed that breaks inside of him, allowing him to run the race he wants from off the pace instead of inheriting the lead like he did in the Blue Grass. This son of the Into Mischief, the leading North American sire over the last two years and sire of the 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, is bred to get the distance. Jockey Javiar Castellano finished third in the 2018 running of the Kentucky Derby aboard Highly Motivated's half-brother, Audible.

 14 Essential Quality 2-1

This two-year old champion is almost too good to be true. He is undefeated after five starts which include four graded stakes. I am a fan of Tapit colts and there is nothing here that points to a bad performance other than pressing Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass when he didn’t really want to set the pace. There have been 30 undefeated Kentucky Derby entrants, 17 of which have gone to post as the favorite. Of those 17, eight have won. Horses with five or more races before the Kentucky Derby have significantly outperformed horses with four or less starts.

 What keeps him from winning?

 Others look to improve more off of their last start. Otherwise he is a very deserving favorite.

 1 Known Agenda 6-1

The post hurts a bit being on the rail with the deluge of horses pushing in after the break. This son of Curlin has late kick and is the type of runner that, if they can navigate through traffic, finds his way into your exotics.

 6 O Besos 20-1

I like to scream out four letter words. The one I would yell at this colt is “WIDE.” He ran a much improved race in the Louisiana Derby despite being five wide into the first turn. If this son of Orb can repeat the run of his sire in the 2013 Kentucky Derby he should find his way into your exotics. He will benefit from the pace here and show improvement.

How does the pace set up?

Expect a charge to the lead early by Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World, Mendina Spirit, and Midnight Bourbon. Essential Quality and Highly Motivated will be best suited sitting just off of the leaders. I expect a half mile call of about 46-4/5ths and a half mile of about 1:11-4/5ths seconds. The wildcard is really who wants the lead the most and we could conceivably see 46 seconds flat.

The frontrunners will tire which benefits Essential Quality and Highly Motivated the most. There are a number of horses who have the late run to find your trifectas and superfectas here. Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic One, Helium, Mandaloun, and Known Agenda are the most likely. Don’t count out Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie hanging on for a minor share either.

Good luck and we’ll do this all again in two weeks for the Preakness!