Two Turns to Glory - 2019 Belmont Stakes Analysis

A mile and a half. The distance I often make my son’s U12 travel soccer team run after practice. The distance it is to walk from my in-law's house, if you go the long way. The distance ten three year-olds will run in about two and a half minutes to see who captures the final Triple Crown race of 2019.

I tried to beat Justify last year. I failed. Two years ago, a nice Tapit colt made me some money as Tapwrit was first to the wire. Most, if not all, of these horses will never see this distance, or anything close to it, again. No wonder it is called the true ‘Test of a Champion’!

Rather than get into great detail on the pace of this race, you can see my pace analysis video exclusively at US Racing which should be posted by Friday evening.

So let’s get down to business!

Above you can see my figures and assessment for the field.

10 Tacitus (9-5) – My Kentucky Derby selection who ran into some trouble yet again on the first Saturday of May. William Mott won this race in 2010 with Drosselmeyer and Jose Ortiz won this race aboard another Tapit colt, Tapwrit, in 2017. This horse is bred to go long and I think the outside post may help as the early speed inside of him will allow him to settle into a good trip early.

9 War of Will (2-1) – It was a tough call between him and Tacitus. I feel it could very well be a toss up between these two with the only potential for value being the bottom of your exotics. Toss his Kentucky Derby performance and you are left with the odd blemish of the Louisiana Derby. Otherwise he has been a solid performer, but not lights out. His pedigree suggests that distance is not an issue, but you could argue the strength of the Preakness field last out. There is a possibility that he just gets loose early and doesn’t look back.

6 Spinoff (15-1) – My runner-up selection in the Kentucky Derby also has the pedigree to run all day by way of his sire Hard Spun. Since you can toss a sloppy, controversial Kentucky Derby where he started from the far outside, he still hasn’t run a two-turn race without any troubles. I think he could open some eyes in this race.

5 Bourbon War (12-1) – The second Tapit colt in my top four selections (Intrepid Heart is the third horse in this field out of Tapit), is most likely for a spot underneath. I think the pace is too fast for him in this spot and the others are a notch above him, but he is likely the best of the rest.

Potential for Value:  Medium-Low (could get chalky on the top of your tickets)

Confidence:  Moderate (My most probable pace scenario is at a 50% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Win – 10

Small Exacta – 9,10 with 6,9,10

Small Trifecta – 9,10 with 6,9,10 with 4,5,6,9,10

Small Superfecta – 9,10 with 6,9,10 with 4,5,6,9,10 with 4,5,6,9,10

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back and enjoy the race!

Hold All Tickets! - 2019 Preakness Analysis

The 2019 Kentucky Derby was certainly…. Interesting to say the least. One of my pace scenarios almost held up. Well, it held up for about 22 minutes until they took Maximum Security down. Disqualification aside, he proved to me that he didn’t need to set a soft fraction to take a race wire to wire like he did in the Florida Derby.

Like many horseplayers, I just move on to the next race.

My explanation of the probable pace will be posted on US Racing. Rather than regurgitate the probable pace scenarios here, please click and watch the graphics as I explain how the race will set up.

Here is how my Pace Based Speed Ratings (PBSR) stack up:

So let’s get down to business.

12 Anothertwistafate (6-1) – The son of Scat Daddy had a rough go in the Lexington last out and still managed to place to Owendale who had a dream trip. Two back in the Sunland Derby he faced a hot pace and was forced to rate for the first time. I think this colt is developing nicely after being the early pace horse in three tries at Golden Gate.  

4 Improbable (5-2) – Bob Baffert and Mike Smith are back at it with the Kentucky Derby favorite. Toss the Kentucky Derby and he has shown he can track off the pace well. He just needs to finish. With a couple of one dimensional front runners in this field, he may have enough to last late.

1 War of Will (4-1) – Toss that Kentucky Derby effort and we’ll give him a pass on the lackluster effort in the Louisiana Derby two back. He was making up ground and setting up for a move before running into trouble in the Kentucky Derby. I think he flies under the radar a bit off of those two efforts and adds some value here.

2 Bourbon War (12-1) – He couldn’t get anything going in the Florida Derby as Maximum Security ran his race. A pace like the Fountain of Youth two back gives him a better chance here. He is out of Tapit who has produced a lot of longer distances winners. If he runs well here, I like his chances in the Belmont Stakes as well.

8 Signalman (30-1) – The faster the early pace goes, the more I like him in this spot. I don’t think he’ll land the top spot, but he’ll be looming late in your exotics.

Potential for Value:  Medium-High

Confidence:  Medium (My most probable pace scenario has a 60% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Small Exacta 12 /  1, 2, 4, 8

Small Trifecta 12 / 1, 2, 4, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 8

Small Superfecta Box  1, 2, 4, 8, 12

WPS 12

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back and enjoy the race!

Back to the Drawing Board! – 2019 Kentucky Derby Analysis

After my defeat in the 2018 Kentucky Derby I told myself I would spend more time watching the preps and getting to know the contenders before May came around. It must have been the tenth time I told myself that. Maybe in 2020!

Regardless, I had my analysis and various contributions ready to go until I saw the news on Wednesday afternoon that Omaha Beach had scratched. With deadlines to meet and a crazy work and travel soccer schedule ahead of me I was a little crunched for time redoing my analysis.

Some people think when a horse scratches, you just pick your next horse. In the case of Omaha Beach, it completely blew up the pace model I had built. While thankful that I know about this change now, not the day of the Kentucky Derby when I am sitting at soccer tryouts, did change not only my pace model, but a few of my contenders.

Above are my Pace Based Speed Ratings (PBSR) for the Kentucky Derby.

My explanation of the probable pace will be posted on US Racing. Rather than regurgitate the probable pace scenarios here, please click and watch the graphics as I explain how the race will set up.

So let’s get down to business.

8 Tacitus (8-1) – Two races as a three-year-old, two wins. He is looking to be the first colt to exit the Wood Memorial and win the Derby since Funny Cide in 2003. As a matter of fact, in the last 19 years the Wood Memorial has produced 43 Derby runners with only three winners (Funny Cide 2003, Monarchos 2001, and Fusiachi Pegasus in 2000). He does have the highest Pace Based Speed Rating (PBSR) in the field, largely off the two hot paces he encountered in both the Wood and the Tampa Bay Derby. What makes the Wood effort even more appealing is that he overcame some early trouble and still prevailed. I expect the early pace to be contested here even with the defection of Omaha Beach and expect Tacitus to stalk the field from five to eight lengths, sitting in the top half of the field. Tacitus is a Tapit colt who should have no issue with the distance or an off track. Tapit has produced three recent Belmont Stakes winners so the distance is not going to be an issue.

19 Spinoff (30-1) – The post may hurt his chances the most here. I like his last two effort both against hot paces and a troubled trip. He wants to be close to the pace which is going to be a tough task from the far outside. Again, distance is not an issue for a Hard Spun colt with Gone West as his damsire. I think Manny Franco may roll the dice and shoot to the front early.

6 Vekoma (15-1) – He has shown some ability to rate off the pace and won the Blue Grass. The last horse to exit the Blue Grass and win the Derby was Street Sense in 2007, however in the last 19 years the Blue Grass has managed only that one winner in 73 starters sent to post in the Derby. I wasn’t overly impressed with his effort in the Fountain of Youth but think he’ll be key in pushing the expected front runner, Maximum Security, along early to set up the race for Tacitus.

17 Roadster (5-1) – I like this horse. He is entering the Derby just like Justify did last year by winning the Santa Anita Derby after winning a non-winners-of-one allowance race prior. Bob Baffert is always dangerous here and I suspect we haven’t seen this horse run to his full potential yet. I think the pedigree is strong, but others are stronger here. I expect him to be a factor late.

7 Maximum Security (8-1) – I passed on him in the Florida Derby. There was no way I thought he’d get to set a soft pace and cruise home. I was wrong. He only has that one walk in the park race around two turns for comparison, so it is hard to figure what will happen with some pressure in the Derby. With the speedy Vekoma right on his tail he will likely have to go faster than he would like early. Still a contender though given the chance that no one wants to challenge him until it is too late.

Potential for Value:  High

Confidence:  Low (My most probable pace scenario is only a 40% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing?

Small Exacta 8 / 6, 7, 17, 19 and reversed 6, 7, 17, 19 / 8

Small Trifecta 8 / 6, 7, 17, 19 / 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 17, 19

Small Superfecta Box  6, 8, 17, 19 or some mix of combinations including 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, or 13 for the lower spots

WPS 8

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first.

So sit back, enjoy a mint julep, and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports!

The Process... Leading Up to the Kentucky Derby

On Friday night, a mere eight days from the Kentucky Derby, I found myself answering some questions about the Kentucky Derby. I was at a great local community fund raiser where I proudly donated boxes for food donations, hung signs, and did odd and end tasks to help the Cranford Jaycees pull off their 13th annual Beefsteak Dinner.

I love talking about horse racing to anyone who will listen. I love talking about horse racing to anyone who doesn't want to listen either.

As the room got fuller and louder, I kept running into friends and acquaintances from all aspects of my life - kid's sports, scouts, the Jaycees, etc. Several beers into the night the conversations were generally short and cordial, but many had a common theme.

"Who do you like in the Kentucky Derby?"

I was flattered. I am still flattered. I am thrilled that so many people actually pay attention to the articles and blog posts I write to want to know what I think when there are so many other "experts" on the interweb for them to follow.

I had to explain to some that I still haven't locked on my winner yet. That I have a "process" for handicapping the Kentucky Derby.

After eating what amounted to about a cow and half in filet mignon, but before the meat sweats kicked in, I did explain to one guy what I meant by the "process".

Three Weeks Out 
After the last set of qualifying prep races, I get the past performances for all the contenders. I am usually so busy with work and coaching I don't do a darn thing with them at this point.

Two Weeks Out
I have unsuccessfully prayed for rain to cancel soccer practice, however I do get a clear Wednesday night and the fun can begin!

The first thing I do is select a running line from each horse for pace analysis and create my pace based speed ratings. I assess the strength of each horse's running styles, including all of the top 30 horses at this point. I start to populate a matrix with jockeys (if named), trainers, sire and dam sire pedigree, and any of my handicapping angles that each horse may meet.

No contenders are selected at this point.

One Week Out
After seeing reports that every Derby entrant has just had the "exact workout we wanted" and they are all "primed for a big race", I get back to work. By now I have started to manually chart out my pace scenarios. Using an engineer's pad, I lay out probable fractions and adjust the positioning of each horse based on their comfortable fractions and the expected.

I will repeat this process with alternate pace scenarios.

Finally, I will have a list of contenders - both for the top spot and for the underneath. There may be as many as five contenders for the top spot and another five for the exotics.

What factors play into the selection of contenders? Pace, pedigree, class, jockey, trainer, strength of prep races, and my pace based speed figures.

The Week Of
My approach to the Kentucky Derby is different than other stakes races. If this was just the ninth race at Monmouth Park that happened to be a stakes race, I would just pass on the race at this point.

I start to refine my contenders, After all it is the Kentucky Derby and you have to at least pick one horse to be on top, right? I finish assessing the strength of the prep race fields and pace. I will "thin the herd" further at this point and land on my top contender, other top contenders, and exotic contenders.

Tuesday
When the post positions are drawn and final field is announced, I will go back and double check my pace analysis and pace based speed figures based on the final field.

Wednesday
I finalize my pace analysis. I challenge myself and each contender I have selected to this point under different pace scenarios.

Given the night off from soccer means I have a lot of work to do. I start to prep my graphics for my pace video and start cranking out a blog post. This is when my top choice will be ready!

Thursday
Time to record the audio and create a pace video. My picks are set. My blog analysis is 90% done. I have started to layout my wagering structure (if any).

Friday
Production time! I try to get all my media out on Friday (or Saturday morning at the latest).

Saturday
This year I'll have to figure out how to get home from soccer in time for the race.

While the Kentucky Derby never falls into the "play" category based on my handicapping, I always throw a few bucks on the race. It is always a great betting race given the amount of chaos that can happen with horses that are still developing.

Check back for my pace video at US Racing and my detailed analysis here at the end of the week.

So get ready to "Talk Derby to Me"...  Who do you like???