Get Your Preak On! - 2018 Preakness Analysis

So much for the Curse of Apollo!

Justify broke one of the longest droughts in sports by winning the Kentucky Derby after not running as a two year old. This was last done in 1882 by Apollo.

Streaks are meant to be broken.

My picks tanked on Derby Day. I admit that I really gave Justify no chance. Looking at his Brisnet speed ratings he did underperform (running a 102 after running a 114 in the Santa Anita Derby). This lends itself to the "law of averages" which I believe in more than the "bounce theory".

Two weeks later it is time for redemption. The Preakness is the second leg of the road to the Triple Crown and has some of its own interesting facts.

My pace analysis will be posted at US Racing, but as usual, my more detailed analysis is going to be posted here.

The smaller field favors the horse with the largest pace advantage on this field. So here is my 2018 Preakness analysis.

7 Justify (1-2) - The race sets up perfectly for him in this spot. He has a 4/5 of a second advantage on pace and while not likely to set the pace, he figures to stay close most of the way and outlast the weak front runners. Jockey Mike Smith may only have one win in 16 tries here with his lone winners coming back in 1993 on Prairie Bayou, but he has a horse that should improve off his Derby effort. Bob Baffert has won a third of the 18 times he has sent a horse to post in the Preakness, winning last in 2015 with American Pharoah.

2 Lone Sailor (15-1) - The weak early speed that is anticipated will also allow a strong closer to make strides late. The pace will be a bit slower than the Derby and will allow a late run for him to get a minor share here.

5 Good Magic (3-1) - I'll admit that I also underestimated this colt in the Derby. Honestly, I haven't given any horse that prepped in the Blue Grass any credit in years! Chad Brown won this race last year with a huge effort from Cloud Computing, yet I still feel that this one will be chasing Justify late and quite possibly on the downswing after his Derby effort.

1 Quip (12-1) - I like this colt. I wanted him to run in the Derby, but felt that the pace would be too fast for him there. It will be too fast for him here also even though he can press the pace. I think there will be great things for this colt in the future, but a modest showing here will land him in the top half of the field.

What do think I will play?

With Justify at 1-2, there is no real value to play him to win unless he floats up to 1-1. I suspect he will go off close to the morning line odds unless some major negative development unfolds in the next few days...

Exacta - 7 / 1, 2, 5

Small Trifecta -  7 / 1, 2, 5 / 1, 2, 5

Small Superfecta - 7 / 1, 2, 5 / 1, 2, 5 / 1, 2, 5, 8 (on the fence about including 6 Tenfold on the bottom here as well)

Remember to check for scratches and changes and make your changes accordingly!

Good luck!

Here We Go Again! – 2018 Kentucky Derby Analysis

The pressure is off now! Last year I broke out of my Kentucky Derby slump with Always Dreaming. While I basically broke even on my final wagers that day, it was a huge weight lifted off of my shoulders. I can now say the last two Kentucky Derby winners I selected were Always Dreaming and Smarty Jones!

I didn’t fare too well with the Preakness, but rebounded to score some serious “folding money” with Tapwrit in the Belmont Stakes.

This year finds me in a similar situation as last year. Overworked and traveling the state once again for the twin’s insane travel soccer schedule. I have been sneaking race replay videos on my lunch hour and on my phone while waiting for soccer games to start.

My explanation of the probable pace will be posted on USRacing. Rather than regurgitate the probable pace scenarios here, please click and watch the graphics as I explain how the race will set up.

So let’s get down to business.

5 Audible (8-1) – He ran a huge race in the Florida Derby which has produced five Derby winners since 2000 (2006 Barbaro, 2008 Big Brown, 2013 Orb, 2016 Nyquist, and 2017 Always Dreaming).
The last horse to win both the Florida Derby and Holy Bull was the great Barbaro in 2006.  He has the top Pace Based Speed Rating (PBSR) that I have computed in this field with a figure of 103. While some may be deterred by Todd Pletcher’s 2-for-48 record in the Derby and Javier Castellano’s 0-for-13 mark, these two hook up for a lot of big wins (recently 22%). Todd Pletcher will enter any horse that makes it into this field so the 46 losses skews his performance. Like the last few Kentucky Derbies, the expected weak early speed will set up nicely for Audible’s style. He overcame being wide early in the Florida Derby and ran some impressive late fractions. He did drift a little down the stretch, but you can put a knock against any horse in this field. After all, he did run one of the best final furlongs of all the entrants. Starting from post 5 next to two of the likely pacesetters (3 Promises Fulfilled and 4 Flameaway) will allow him to get a good trip early.

14 Mendelssohn (5-1) – The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf champion and UAE Derby winner. He is a bit of an enigma. Traditionally UAE Derby horses have run poorly in the Kentucky Derby, and it is hard to try to compare pace fractions from overseas races. I am not sold that he beat a great field in the UAE Derby, but did win commandingly in his lone dirt start.  Beyond his UAE win and the Turf win at Del Mar last fall as a juvenile, he hasn’t faced any real tough competition and hasn’t been that dominant. He will figure near the pace early if he can get away cleanly, but doubt remains on this one.

10 My Boy Jack (30-1) – Closers have a heck of a task navigating their way to the front with a full field of 20. Orb (2013), Mine That Bird (2009), Street Sense (2007), and Giacomo (2005) are the only horses in the last 18 years to overcome a 10 length or greater deficit at the second call to win. I think My Boy Jack can be a late factor like Lookin at Lee in 2017 and Commanding Curve in 2014 were. The Desormeaux brothers will have a live runner here.

9 Hofburg (20-1) – This lightly raced colt chased Audible home in the Florida Derby. I see plenty of chance for improvement here, but will likely find himself needing to overcome a huge deficit late. He does have some late kick, but not enough for the top spot.

Potential for Value:  High

Confidence:  Low (My most probable pace scenario is only a 50% likelihood)

So what am I toying with playing? 

Small Exacta 5 / 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 17

Small Trifecta 5 / 9, 10, 14 / 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 16, 17

Small Superfecta  Box  5, 9, 10, 14 or some mix of combinations including 8, 11, 14, 16, and 17 for the lower spots

WPS 5

We'll see what the weather looks like and if there are any scratches or changes first before I finalize my bets noted above.

So sit back, enjoy a mint julep, and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports!